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DE RUEHUL #0682/01 0950822
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O 040822Z APR 08
FM AMEMBASSY SEOUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9226
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING PRIORITY 4056
RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW PRIORITY 8634
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO PRIORITY 4210
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RUACAAA/COMUSKOREA INTEL SEOUL KOR PRIORITY
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UNCLAS SEOUL 000682 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KN KS PGOV PINR PREL
SUBJECT: FINAL POLLS POINT TO GNP MAJORITY 
 
 
¶1.  (U) SUMMARY: With general elections less than a week 
away, the ruling Grand National Party (GNP) is poised to 
secure a significant majority in the National Assembly.  The 
latest polling data ) the last to be released before April 9 
according to election law stipulations ) revealed that of 
the 245 district seats (299 including proportional seats) the 
GNP is expected to win in 107-145 districts, with the main 
opposition liberal United Democratic Party (UDP) expected to 
take anywhere from 46-71.  The UDP is not likely to achieve 
its projected goal of winning 100 seats, the number necessary 
to block constitutional revisions, and is therefore touting 
its underdog opposition role in the hopes of appealing to the 
estimated 30 percent of undecided voters.  As for the 
remaining parties, the independents are leading in 16 
districts. Conservative hardliner Lee Hoi-chang,s Liberty 
Forward Party (LFP) is ahead in 9 districts, and others in 5. 
 In accordance with these polling results, South Korean press 
reports project that the GNP will win roughly 30 proportional 
seats, securing over 170 in total.  The UDP on the other hand 
would likely come out with about 90 seats.  END SUMMARY. 
 
-------------------------------- 
METRO AREA = PULSE OF THE PUBLIC 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) The Seoul metropolitan area holds 45 percent of the 
total seats and as South Korea's political hub is considered 
a make-or-break region for these elections.  While the ruling 
party initially was expected to have a sweeping victory here, 
competition became fierce as Lee Myung-bak's approval ratings 
fell to around 35 percent; the contests' results in this area 
will therefore offer insight into the public's evaluation of 
Lee's performance in the first month of his administration 
and indicate to what extent the public is willing to support 
his policies.  In Seoul, the ruling GNP is leading in 23-34 
of the 48 constituencies, the UDP in 4-12, and former 
presidential candidate Moon Kook-hyun's Creative Korea Party 
(CKP) is ahead in one.  In Incheon, the GNP is leading in 6-7 
of the 12 districts, and the UDP in 1-3.  Of the 51 seats in 
the Gyeonggi province, the ruling party is ahead in 20-21 and 
the UDP in 9-10.  All remaining districts are caught up in 
tight races. 
 
--------------------- 
LFP TAKES CHUNGCHEONG 
--------------------- 
 
¶3. (U) The Chungcheong region is crucial for the LFP to gain 
enough seats towards forming a floor negotiation group (20 
seats).  Of the total 24 seats available, GNP candidates are 
ahead in 3-5 districts, the UDP in 3-4, the LFP in 7-9, and 
the remaining races show no clear winner.  In Gyeongsang, the 
GNP's traditional stronghold, ruling party candidates are 
ahead in 50-60 of the 68 constituencies.  The Pro-Park 
Alliance candidates and independents who previously lost GNP 
nominations are not proving to be formidable opponents; only 
one pro-Park candidate, Hong Sa-duk, seems to have a chance 
at winning in the region according to the latest polls. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
UDP UP IN HONAM, INDEPENDENTS FIGHT THE GOOD FIGHT 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
¶4. (U) In the Honam region of North and South Jeolla, 
traditionally a bastion of liberal support, the UDP is 
leading in 25-27 of the 31 districts, but liberal independent 
candidates are beginning to draw more attention.  Consistent 
with their usual voting pattern of choosing candidates based 
on regional loyalty, voters in Honam are beginning to grow 
more attuned to the candidates' promises of change ) 
especially on the economy - and the UDP is working overtime 
to win what used to be shoo-in votes.  Unaffiliated 
candidates who were rejected in the UDP nomination process 
hold a lead in 2-4 cities and counties in Jeolla to include 
Mokpo, Muan, and Shinan.  Of these, Mokpo is being 
spotlighted as former President Kim Dae-jung's close aide 
Park Jie-won, with 35 percent support, is leading his UDP 
opponent Chung Young-sik, who has 23 percent support. 
 
---------------- 
KANGWON AND JEJU 
---------------- 
¶5. (U) The competition in Kangwon and Jeju is evenly split - 
while the GNP candidates are strong overall, the UDP is 
leading in two constituencies, and competition is fierce in 
another two districts.  In Jeju, UDP candidates hold a slight 
lead over their GNP counterparts in two of three districts. 
 
------------------- 
KEY RACES AND FACES 
------------------- 
 
¶6. (U) UDP chairman Sohn Hak-kyu and former presidential 
candidate Chung Dong-young face likely losses in their 
highly-publicized contests with key GNP figures Park Jin and 
Chung Mong-joon.  Close Lee Myung-bak supporter Park Jin is 
well ahead of Sohn in the highly-coveted Jongno district of 
Seoul at 44 percent while Sohn rates at about 30 percent. 
Chung Mong-joon is ahead of his UDP rival Chung Dong-young by 
more than 20 percentage points, although recent allegations 
of sexual harassment may sway some undecided voters and 
result in a tighter race than expected.  Key Lee supporters 
such as Lee Jae-o (33 percent) and GNP Secretary General Lee 
Bang-ho (44.8 percent) are struggling in their respective 
contests against the liberal Creative Korea Party's Moon 
Kook-hyun (49 percent) and the liberal Democratic Labor 
Party,s Kang Ki-gap (31.9 percent). 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) South Korean press reports note that this year's 
general elections will likely see a record-low voter turnout, 
probably due to an apathetic younger generation and both 
major parties' "no-policy" policy.  Even the recent wave of 
harsh rhetoric from the North is unlikely to influence 
voters, as candidates continue to forego policy debates in 
favor of appeals to regional and party affiliation.  All 
things being equal, a low voter turnout will likely bolster 
the GNP,s chances for a strong majority, as precedent shows 
that older, traditionally GNP-leaning voters will show up to 
the polls while younger voters stay at home. 
VERSHBOW