VZCZCXYZ0000
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHDG #0611/01 1161850
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 251850Z APR 08
FM AMEMBASSY SANTO DOMINGO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0568
INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHWN/AMEMBASSY BRIDGETOWN PRIORITY 2163
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS PRIORITY 0900
RUEHGE/AMEMBASSY GEORGETOWN PRIORITY 1076
RUEHKG/AMEMBASSY KINGSTON PRIORITY 2860
RUEHPO/AMEMBASSY PARAMARIBO PRIORITY 1203
RUEHPU/AMEMBASSY PORT AU PRINCE PRIORITY 4818
RUEHSP/AMEMBASSY PORT OF SPAIN PRIORITY 1904
RUEHUB/USINT HAVANA PRIORITY 0183
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RUMISTA/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL PRIORITY

UNCLAS SANTO DOMINGO 000611 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA/CAR AND INR 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR PHUM ECON DR
SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION ROUNDUP, APRIL 25, 2008 
 
REF: A. SANTO DOMINGO 0418 
 
     ¶B. SANTO DOMINGO 0180 
     ¶C. 06 SANTO DOMINGO 3521 
 
(U) In this edition of the Roundup: 
 
¶1. Participacion Ciudadana's Second Observation Report 
¶2. Latest Poll Results 
¶3. Fernandez Discusses Removing Term Limits 
¶4. Small Party Candidate Alleges Donations by Narcotics 
Traffickers 
 
¶1. (SBU) Participacion Ciudadana's Second Observation Report 
 
Participacion Ciudadana has published its "Second Electoral 
Observation Report," which is supported by a USAID grant.  In 
the publication, the respected NGO: 
-- Discusses at-length the continuing controversy regarding 
the use of government spending to favor incumbent 
presidential candidate Leonel Fernandez, e.g. the ruling by 
the Central Elections Board (JCE) against the special 
government payroll ("Nomina CB") for party members who do not 
work (Ref A); 
-- States that the administration of the election is going 
well:  "At present, there are no apparent important obstacles 
to a successful election in terms of organizational issues." 
-- Criticizes the lack of policy content:  "The campaign is 
not complying with one of its fundamental functions, i.e. to 
serve as a space for proposing and debating policy proposals;" 
-- States that campaign-related violence has been minimal; and 
-- Notes the high level of spending on campaign 
advertisements in this developing country. 
 
¶2. (SBU) Latest Poll Results 
 
An analysis in the newspaper "Clave" showed that the results 
of polls taken by major firms in the last weeks of the 1996, 
2000, and 2004 elections were very similar to the final 
election results.  This year, the results of four recent 
opinion polls by major firms show a lead of 15 to 24 percent 
(pct.) for the PLD's Leonel Fernandez over his main rival, 
the PRD's Miguel Vargas Maldonado: 
 
-- Gallup-Hoy: 
Fernandez 52 pct., Vargas 37 pct. 
 
-- Penn and Schoen: 
Fernandez 56 pct., 32 Vargas pct. 
 
-- Clave-NOXA-CIES: 
Fernandez 54 pct., Vargas 30 pct. 
 
-- Greenberg-Diario Libre: 
Fernandez 53 pct., Vargas 37 pct. 
 
In contrast, the firm CID-Latinoamerica, which has a well 
established reputation with the State Department, continues 
to show a much tighter race:  Fernandez  40.6 pct., Vargas 
39.0 pct.  While it is unclear what is causing this 
divergence in poll data, the problem may be explained by 
differing numbers on undecided voters.  Among likely voters, 
CID's data is closer to the other major polls:  Fernandez 50 
pct., Vargas 45 pct. (Ref B).  (Note: Running third at 4-8 
pct. is the PRSC's Amable Aristy Castro who, in the event of 
a second round of voting, will be courted by both the PLD and 
PRD for his endorsement.) 
 
¶3. (SBU) Fernandez Discusses Removing Term Limits 
 
President Fernandez was recently asked by the press whether 
he would propose a constitutional amendment to permit him to 
run for a third consecutive term (fourth in total) in 2012. 
Fernandez's reply certainly did not rule out such a move:  "I 
don't know if I will even still be alive.  However, there are 
times when circumstances cause events that were not foreseen. 
 In Colombia, there are those who are suggesting the 
possibility of changing the constitution so that Uribe 
continues in power until the war with the guerillas is 
resolved.  (President Clinton was young when he left office.) 
 That was a human resource that the United States lost.  If 
Bill Clinton had run again, he certainly would have won." 
Comment:  The talk around town is that Fernandez will indeed 
seek to remove term limits, as part of the broader 
constitutional reform effort that he initiated in late-2006 
(Ref C).  The practice of presidential re-election is 
controversial here, even for the one consecutive term 
permitted since 2002, given concerns regarding the use of 
government spending to favor the incumbent candidate. 
 
¶4. (U) Small Party Candidate Alleges Donations by Narcotics 
Traffickers 
 
Trajano Santana, the presidential candidate for the small 
Revolutionary Independent Party, recently alleged that 
narcotics traffickers "invest" in candidates in return for 
assistance in avoiding prosecution.  Santana said, "Here 
there is a significant number of criminals participating in 
the political process in order to sustain a model of 
impunity."  Reacting to reports of the candidate's 
statements, the Presidents of the JCE and drug czar's office 
requested that Santana present them with proof of his 
allegation.  The head of the JCE also noted that Santana's 
charge shows the importance of passing a new political party 
law, since the current statute does not require that campaign 
contributions be reported. 
 
(U) This report and additional information can be found on 
Embassy Santo Domingo's SIPRNET site, 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/santodomingo/  
FANNIN