VZCZCXYZ0015
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHQT #0369/01 1151959
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 241959Z APR 08
FM AMEMBASSY QUITO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8758
INFO RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA PRIORITY 7525
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA PRIORITY 3899
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS PRIORITY 3003
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ APR 1030
RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA PRIORITY 2571
RUEHGL/AMCONSUL GUAYAQUIL PRIORITY 3515

UNCLAS QUITO 000369 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: SENV ECON SMIG SOCI EC
SUBJECT: CLIMATE CHANGE IN ECUADOR 
 
REF: A. QUITO 225 
     ¶B. 07 QUITO 1497 
     ¶C. QUITO 259 
 
¶1.  (U) Summary:  For years Ecuador has been experiencing 
symptoms of climate change such as glacial melting.  This 
year, erratic weather is also leaving its mark on the 
country.  Studies of the country's glaciers show a retreat of 
at least 28% in the last ten years.  Scientists are concerned 
because these same glaciers provide most of the water for 
highland agriculture, hydropower, and municipal needs.  As 
Ecuador faces clean-up costs from widespread flooding, 
changes in climate have become particularly relevant, but 
remain difficult for the GOE to adequately address.  End 
summary. 
 
Glacial Retreat and Deforestation 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶2.   (U) Most in the NGO and scientific community in Ecuador 
are concerned about glacial melting that is the result of 
broader global warming.  INAMHI (the Insituto Nacional de 
Meteorologia e Hidrologia), the Ministry of Energy and Mines' 
national weather agency, estimates that glaciers covered 
approximately 70 square kilometers in Ecuador in 2006, a 28% 
decline from 1998.  This data is consistent with previous 
studies showing a 30% decline of the Cotopaxi glacier, one of 
Quito's primary sources of drinking water, from 1976-1997. 
Current studies of Cotopaxi indicate a retreat of 50 meters 
per year.  Quito's municipal power company, the Empresa 
Electrica Quito, estimates that the amount of water flowing 
into the hydroelectric plant at Guangopolo from rivers fed by 
the Cotopaxi glacier has decreased by 40-50% over the last 
thirty years.  The U.S. Department of Energy, the 
International Energy Organization, and the World 
Meterological Organization's Intergovernmental Panel on 
Climate Change (IPCC) predict that green house gas emissions 
will continue to cause declining Andean snow pack (the DOE 
estimates by as much as 55% by 2100) and a temperature rise 
of 2-3 degrees Celsius in the Amazon Basin by 2050-2100 (the 
Brazilian space agency estimates a rise of 4-8 degrees C), 
with dire implications for forest loss and potable water 
supply. 
 
¶3.  (U) Scientists point out that deforestation in Ecuador 
contributes to glacial retreat; indeed it may be Ecuador's 
greatest contribution to global climate change.  Ecuador's 
deforestation rate was last measured in 2000 by CLIRSEN, the 
national satellite agency overseen by the Ecuadorian 
military's Geographic Institute, at 1.5% per year, probably 
the second-highest rate in Latin America after Paraguay.  The 
head of Quito's forestry engineers' union tells us that the 
deforestation rate in the northwest province of Esmeraldas is 
as high as 4.5%, due to the clearing of native forests for 
palm oil plantations.  The Ministry of Environment has a very 
limited budget for enforcement, and nearly all logging in 
Ecuador takes place illegally. 
 
Unusual Weather a National Emergency 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶4.   (U) The effects of pollution and deforestation on 
glacial retreat and climate change for any given year are 
difficult to measure, but it is clear that this year, Ecuador 
is experiencing very unusual climatic conditions (ref A). 
INAMHI says 2008 is the heaviest rainy period Ecuador has 
seen in ten years, due to the fact that the La Nina effect 
has been accompanied by unusually warm temperatures in parts 
of the Pacific between the Galapagos Islands and the 
mainland.  Recent flooding on the coast and in the highlands 
has caused over $150 million in agricultural and 
infrastructure damage, affecting nearly one third of 
Ecuador's population.  Peace Corps and NGO contacts say the 
damage has been more severe than that caused by El Nino in 
1997-98.  On April 1, a massive sink hole measuring 40 meters 
in diameter and 100 meters deep opened underneath the edge of 
a major highway in downtown Quito.  There were no injuries, 
but the government estimates the cost of repairs at $1.5 
million.  The municipality declared a road emergency. 
 
Scarce Resources and GOE Efforts 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Scientific agencies uniformly tell us their budgets 
are restrictive.  Existing resources are not well coordinated 
among agencies, and scientific data are not regularly 
published.  Many scientific agencies have only been formed in 
the last ten years, as environmental law has been written and 
the need for information has grown.  The Ministry of 
Environment's National Council on Hydrologic Resources (an 
agency that manages contracts for the supply of potable water 
to municipalities) tells us it does not share data with 
INAMHI (the agency that studies glacial retreat); and the 
pattern is similar in almost every scientific field. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) At the political level, the GOE has made its 
"Keeping the Oil in the Ground" proposal (a proposal to avoid 
drilling for oil in the Ishpingo-Tambocoha-Tiputini or ITT 
field in Yasuni National Park*reftels B and C), its showcase 
initiative to combat global warming.  Through this 
initiative, Ecuador is proposing to forgo 50% of the value of 
oil that would be extracted over the next 40 years.  (Note: 
this initiative is ambitious but poorly defined and may not 
come to fruition; Correa has established a deadline of 
October 2008 before opening the field to development.)  The 
GOE has signed the Kyoto Protocol, and is a member of the 
U.S. Methane to Markets Partnership for clean energy.  The 
Ministry of Environment (MAE) also regularly holds 
conferences related to climate change; in October 2007 it 
worked with the Andean community and the Municipality of 
Quito to hold the week-long "ClimaLatino" conference in Quito 
and Guayaquil to raise public awareness. 
 
¶7.  (U)  Still, the need for increased training and technical 
assistance is great.  The Ministry of Environment is 
under-funded, and in the absence of substantive policy 
initiatives, does what it can to develop connections with 
technical agencies worldwide.   Over the last ten years, the 
U.S. government has helped conserve the biodiversity of over 
1.2 million hectares in Ecuador (this year alone, USAID will 
provide over $800,000 for biodiversity management).  The USG 
has also donated $2 million in assistance for the floods. 
Probably the greatest U.S. contribution is that made by NOAA, 
through the tsunami warning buoys it maintains and data it 
makes available to Ecuador.  The EPA, U.S. Geological Survey, 
and Department of Energy also all cooperate regularly, though 
informally, with Ecuadorian scientific agencies. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU)  Members of the GOE and the public continually 
express interest in combating  climate change.  Like many 
countries, Ecuador is still in the process of defining how to 
address the issue.  The Correa administration has made token 
gestures towards protecting the environment, particularly 
through the ITT initiative, but in general it has focused 
real political will on more sensitive social and political 
issues.  This year, climate has become an emergency.  While 
most GOE and international funding will be directed to relief 
efforts instead of prevention, the underlying need for 
scientific expertise will remain underdeveloped.  Post will 
seek ways to support the scientific community, particularly 
by promoting relationships between bilateral scientific 
agencies and through the International Visitors' Program, IIP 
Speaker programs, and the Embassy Science Fellows Program. 
End comment. 
Jewell