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DE RUEHZP #0330/01 1161833
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 251833Z APR 08
FM AMEMBASSY PANAMA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1981
INFO RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHMFISS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC

C O N F I D E N T I A L PANAMA 000330 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/25/2018 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PM
SUBJECT: PANAMA: SUPPRESSED POLL SURFACES 
 
 
Classified By: POLCOUNS Brian R. Naranjo.  Reasons:  1.4 (b), (c), and 
(d) 
 
------- 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1. (C) Newly elected governing Revolutionary Democratic Party 
(PRD) National Executive Committee (CEN) Fifth Sub-Secretary 
Rodrigo "Rod" Diaz provided POLCOUNS with a bootleg copy of 
the PSM-SIGMA DOS April poll.  In the wake of the Dichter and 
Neira April poll, portions of which have been published 
during the week of April 20, the results of this poll seem 
unremarkable and pedestrian.  Prepared for Panama City 
television broadcaster Telemetro, this PSM-SIGMA DOS poll 
was, however, suppressed and never released publicly when it 
raised the hackles of a number of political leaders.  This 
poll was the first poll to show that: 
 
-- Democratic Change (CD) presidential candidate Ricardo 
Martinelli no longer held the lead; 
-- PRD presidential nomination candidate Balbina Herrera took 
over the lead; 
-- PRD presidential nomination candidate and Mayor of Panama 
City Juan Carlos Navarro's approval ratings had declined; and 
-- Panamenista presidential nomination candidates Alberto 
Vallarino and Juan Carlos Navarro were tied essentially, but 
Martinelli was seen as the candidate more capable of unifying 
the opposition. 
 
Dichter and Neira's April poll set off shock waves amongst 
Panama's political establishment, but the PSM-SIGMA DOS poll 
was the first tremor.  (Note:  PSM-SIGMA DOS's poll was 
conducted March 28-31, but published in April.  For 
simplicity's sake, the poll will be referred to as the April 
poll.)  End Summary. 
 
------------------------------------ 
Approval for Torrijos Administration 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶2. (SBU) Approval for the President Torrijos has remained 
essentially steady from September 2007 to April 2008, 
according to PSM-SIGMA DOS's September, January and April 
polls: 
 
Poll            Approval   Disapproval  No Answer 
----            --------   -----------  --------- 
Sept 2007       48%        45%          7% 
Jan 2008        50%        47%          3% 
Apr 2008        50%        47%          3% 
 
-------------------------- 
Assessing Navarro as Mayor 
-------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) Looking at the job approval rating for PRD 
presidential nomination candidate and Mayor of Panama City 
Juan Carlos Navarro's approval ratings, PSM-SIGMA DOS 
detected a decrease in the percentage of respondents who 
believed that Navarro had performed well or very well.  In 
April, 60 percent of respondents characterized his performace 
as good (54 percent) or very good (16 percent) down ten 
points from January when 9 percent reported his performance 
to be very good and 61 percent reported it to be good.  Over 
the same period, respondents characterizing his performance 
as bad or very bad grew 2 percent points, and those who did 
not know or respond remained steady at 1 percent. 
 
---------------------------------- 
Balbina Most Popular PRD Candidate 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) In the April poll, asked in an open question "who 
should be the PRD presidential candidate," 45 percent of 
respondents said Balbina Herrera, 31 percent Navarro, 5 
percent Ernesto "El Toro" Perez Balladares, 2 percent 1st VP 
and FM Samuel Lewis, 2 percent other, 2 percent Laurentino 
Cortizo, and 14 percent did not know or respond.  Herrera's 
numbers essentially remained steady across PSM-SIGMA DOS's 
three polls (45% in April 2008; 46 % in January 2008; and 43 
% in September 2007).  Navarro's numbers grew during the same 
period (31 % in April, 29% in January; 25% in September).  El 
Toro's support eroded significantly over the same period (5% 
in April; 10% in January; 15% in September).  Lewis tied 
"other" and also-ran Cortizo and was beat resoundingly by "do 
not know/did not respond." 
------------------------------------ 
Martinelli Best Opposition Candidate 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶5. (SBU) Martinelli continued to be the top choice of 
respondents when asked which opposition candidate would be 
the opposition's best presidential candidate, though support 
for him eroded somewhat falling 6 points (35% in April; 41% 
in January; 31 percent in September)  Vallarino and Varela 
were essentially tied in April on this question with 
Vallarino polling 20 percent and Varela polling 21 percent. 
Varela's support on this question grew the most though 
jumping from 13 percent in September and 14 percent in 
January, while Vallarino's support recovered from 16 percent 
in January returning to the 20 percent level polled in 
September.  Support for Moral Vanguard of the National (VMP) 
presidential candidate Guillermo Endara eroded significantly 
(18% in September; 12% in January; 9 percent in April). 
 
-------------------------------------------- 
If Generals Today (April), Herrera Would Win 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) Were the elections to have been held in April, 28 
percent of respondents said they would vote for Herrera 
holding steady from her January level and rising one point 
from her September level.  According to PSM-SIGMA DOS's April 
poll, Herrera had succeeded in toppling Martinelli from the 
lead that he had maintain consistently for over two years at 
the head of the polls.  Martinelli polled 18 percent in 
April, 19 percent in January, and 16 percent in September on 
this question.  Navarro continued to trail Herrera badly 
polling 14 percent in April, 11 percent in January, and 9 
percent in September.  Varela edged out Vallarino, but only 
by one point, polling 10 percent in April, 7 percent in 
January, and 4 percent in September.  Vallarino polled 9 
percent in April, 10 percent in January, and 11 percent in 
January.  Both Endara and Perez Balladares saw their support 
continue to erode.  Endara polled 4 percent in April, 7 
percent in January, and 10 percent in September.  Perez 
Balladares polled 2 percent in April, 4 percent in January, 
and 9 percent in September.  Navarro, Patriotic Union (UP) 
President Guillermo "Billy" Ford, Panamenista presidential 
nomination candidate Marco Ameglio were all also-rans polling 
at or below 3 percent. 
 
----------------------------- 
Who Can Unify the Opposition? 
----------------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) Martinelli was the choice of 28 percent of 
respondents when asked which candidate could unify the 
opposition, falling from 34 percent in January and having 
polled 24 percent in September.  Among Panamenista candidates 
though, Varela pulled even with Vallarino.  On this question, 
Vallarino polled 20 percent in April, 16 percent in January, 
and 21 percent in September.  Varela polled 19 percent in 
April, 12 percent in January, and 10 percent in September. 
Endara, Ford, and Ameglio saw their low levels of support on 
this question continue to erode. 
 
------------------------------------- 
Varela Leads Inside Panamenista Party 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) Though neck-in-neck on opposition-wide polling 
questions and the who-can-unify-the-opposition question, 
Varela polled ten points ahead of Vallarino taking 45 percent 
to Vallarino's 35 percent.  Thirteen percent of respondents 
did not know or did not respond, and Ameglio polled 7 
percent.  (Note:  It is not clear whether this question was 
asked only of Panamenista party members.  It appears to have 
been asked of all respondents, something that would skew the 
responses to this question.) 
 
--------------------- 
Technical Information 
--------------------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) PSM-SIGMA DOS PANAMA conducted this poll from March 
28 to March 31. All interviews were conducted face-to-face. 
Only adults over the age of 18 were interviewed in their 
homes.  Only one person per home was interviewed.  Homes were 
selected randomly, and the number of homes in a particular 
area were in proportion for general population distribution. 
Interviews were distributed evenly between men and women. No 
interviews were conducted by telephone, at places or work, 
public places or on the street.  Interviews were distributed 
by age group, socio-economic status, and education  in 
proportion with general population distribution.  A total of 
1,225 people were interviewed across the country, except in 
areas where the interviewers safety could not reasonably be 
assured.  The company asserts a 95 percent level of 
confidence and that the margin of error is 2.8 percent. 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶10. (C) Had this poll been released, it would have set off 
the political shock waves that the piecemeal publication by 
La Prensa of the April Dichter and Neira poll did a few weeks 
later.  Martinelli has been toppled from his two-year plus 
reign at the top of the polls by Herrera.  He nonetheless 
remains the preferred option, at least according to this 
poll, for unifying the opposition, something that rankles 
Panamenista leaders who perceive it to be their God given 
right to hold the top of the ticket on any opposition 
coalition ticket.  Vallarino, who has persistently been 
making the argument that he is the best Panamenista candidate 
to unify the opposition, must now be looking over his 
shoulder at Varela who has pulled even on this question.  The 
poll does not clarify the state of the race for the 
Panamenista nomination as most measures have Varela and 
Vallarino essentially even and the one question giving Varela 
a notable lead is of questionable value as non-Panamenista 
Party members may have responded to the closed question on 
the Panamenista race.  Radio talk show host and political 
commentator Edwin Cabrera told POLCOUNS April 25 that he had 
seen an internal Panamenista Party poll that showed Varela 
and Vallarino in a dead heat.  According to Cabrera, 40 
percent of Panamenista Party members were undecided.  In an 
e-mail to POL, Varela asserted that he was beating Varela 2 
to 1 and that he would soon share his polling data with the 
Embassy, a pledge he has often made but never fulfilled. 
EATON