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DE RUEHNE #0992/01 0951023
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O 041023Z APR 08
FM AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1234
INFO RUCNCLS/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE
RUCNISL/ISLAMIC COLLECTIVE
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RHMFISS/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 000992 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR SCA/INS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL SOCI KISL IN
SUBJECT: CONGRESS TURNS UP HEAT ON MAYAWATI, SOFTENS ON 
SAMAJWADI PARTY 
 
REF: NEW DELHI 825 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  At the March 30-31 Congress Party Uttar 
Pradesh (UP) state unit conference, party leaders including 
Sonia and Rahul Gandhi fiercely criticized the Bahujan Samaj 
Party (BSP) government of Chief Minister Mayawati.  The 
gloves came off as Congress Party leaders accused the BSP and 
Mayawati personally of everything from corruption to abetting 
inflation.  The Samajwadi Party (SP) received its fair share 
of criticism from Congress as well, but in a measured way 
that led many commentators to forecast a Congress-SP alliance 
in the run up to national elections before May 2009.  While 
SP leaders downplayed an alliance, their comments left the 
door open.  Sonia Gandhi also issued a call to action to take 
back the state, but the party clearly needs a lifeline in UP. 
 The Congress Party's standing in this large, influential 
state remains extremely low and the party will need a tie-up 
with the SP or the BSP if it hopes to form a ruling coalition 
after the coming national elections.  While an alliance with 
the SP would seem more likely from an electoral demographic 
standpoint, a Congress MP told visiting SCA Deputy Assistant 
Secretary Evan Feigenbaum that he thought Congress would ally 
 
SIPDIS 
post-poll with the BSP because, "Sonia has a soft spot for 
Mayawati."  If that is true, her words do not show it.  End 
Summary. 
 
Congress Attacks BSP 
-------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) At the March 30-31 Uttar Pradesh Congress Party 
Convention, party leaders including Sonia and Rahul Gandhi 
fiercely attacked the government of BSP Chief Minister 
Mayawati on several fronts.  They accused Mayawati's regime 
of promoting corruption, lawlessness, caste-based politics 
and shielding criminals.  The conference resolution read, "To 
expect transparency and corruption-free administration from 
the present BSP government is useless.  Going by the past 
record of the present Chief Minister, it is very clear how 
importance was given to corruption.  No department is free 
from corruption."  Rahul Gandhi continued his appeals to the 
once solidly Congress-voting Dalits of UP, telling them they 
have been "cheated" by Mayawati, and that the United 
Progressive Alliance's programs to improve the welfare of the 
people were being "sacrificed at the altar of corruption in 
Uttar Pradesh."  The Congress even blamed the BSP for 
inflation, stating, "Failure of the state machinery is also 
one of the reasons for the rising prices." 
 
Tempered Criticism of SP 
------------------------ 
 
¶3. (U) While the state party conference resolution condemned 
the SP for the "goonda (crook) raj prevailing under its rule 
in the state," Congress leader Digvijay Singh softened the 
party's line towards the SP.  When asked about a Congress-SP 
pre-poll alliance, he responded, "We are open to all parties 
who are against communal forces in this country.  We must 
give credit to the Samajwadi Party that they have been able 
to contain the BJP to a greater extent in UP."  Commentators 
immediately took this conciliatory tone to be evidence of an 
agreement, but SP leader Mulayam Singh Yadav told the press 
the next day, "Right now we have no plans for any sort of 
alliance with the Congress."  Amar Singh, SP General 
Secretary followed with, "We will strictly adhere to the 
 
SIPDIS 
anti-Congress and anti-BJP politics...there is no question of 
any tie-up with the Congress in general elections."  But he 
did add, "Mr. Digvijay Singh is an old friend, I respect him 
a lot," and called the Congress Party "a major secular force" 
in India. 
 
¶4. (SBU) In an April 1 meeting, a senior Congress MP told 
visiting SCA Deputy Assistant Secretary Evan Feigenbaum that 
he thought Congress would not form a pre-poll alliance with 
either the BSP or the SP.  The MP believes all parties will 
wait until after the election to play their cards.  As for 
post-poll alliances, "Sonia has a soft spot for Mayawati," he 
conveyed.  He also stated that SP General Secretary Amar 
 
NEW DELHI 00000992  002 OF 002 
 
 
Singh is "very close" to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), 
and theorized that if the BJP is in a position to form a 
government after the national polls, it will go with the SP. 
 
Sonia Scolds, Exhorts Party to Fight 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶5. (U) While attacking Mayawati at the conference, Sonia 
Gandhi also criticized Congress party workers in UP and 
blamed them for the party's decline in the state.  She 
accused party leaders of worrying "more about ourselves than 
the party" and denounced factionalism stating, "We will all 
live only if the boat stays afloat."  She continued the tough 
love by excoriating state party leaders for inflating 
membership roles and told the conference, "Rahul told me very 
clearly to make it public at the convention."  The senior 
Congress MP told DAS Feigenbaum that he attributed the 
party's low standing in UP to overrepresentation of Brahmins 
in state party leadership. 
 
¶6. (U) After the scolding, the Congress Party President 
exhorted the party members to fight a grassroots campaign by 
going to the villages and spreading the word of the 
"historical budget."  (Note: This is a reference to the 
populist budget, including the 15 billion dollar farmer loan 
waiver program, unveiled by Finance Minster Chidambaram.  End 
Note.)  Congress workers must be prepared to "go to jail" to 
revive the party in the state, she told the conference. 
Rahul Gandhi will be leading the battle in the streets 
against the BSP and is prepared himself to go to jail, she 
offered. 
 
Full of Sound and Fury, Signifying... 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) Comment: The Congress Party is in deep trouble in 
UP.  On Poloff's recent trip to UP, local journalists laughed 
off the party's standing in the state that it used to 
dominate (reftel).  The journalists also considered 
Mayawati's popularity to be waning somewhat, but felt this 
was her own fault and not due to the hard work of the 
Congress.  Sonia Gandhi's harsh comments to party workers, 
while self-serving, were significant in that they were made 
publicly. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Comment Continued: The Congress Party is so weak in 
UP that unless the party aligns with the BSP or the SP ahead 
of the polls, the "mother and son are in danger of losing 
their own parliamentary seats," according to one Political 
Section contact.  That said, none of the parties are rushing 
to form any pre-poll alliance just yet and will wait for the 
elections to draw closer before they formally commit.  But, 
they are beginning to position themselves.  From statements 
over the last few days, Congress leaders appear to be 
favoring the SP.  This makes more tactical sense as Mayawati 
plays directly to the Congress's three main vote banks 
(Brahmins, Dalits and Muslims) and hurt Congress in the 
Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh state elections.  The SP's 
Muslim and Yadav vote banks, on the other hand, dovetail 
nicely with Congress's traditional electorate.  Congress has 
turned up the heat on Mayawati, but that will likely moderate 
once the general election campaign against the BJP starts and 
both national parties cast about for any partners that can 
tip the balance.  End Comment. 
 
¶9. (U) DAS Feigenbaum cleared this cable. 
WHITE