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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 NEW DELHI 001166 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
USDA FOR DUS TERPSTRA, FAS/YOST, MILLER, OCRA/RADLER, CARVER 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PHUM PBTS TBIO EAGR NP IN BG
SUBJECT: DELHI DIARY, APR 21-28 
 
REF: A. NEW DELHI 790 
     ¶B. NEW DELHI 0934 
     ¶C. NEW DELHI 0888 
 
¶1.  (U) Below is a compilation of political highlights from 
Embassy New Delhi for April 21-28, 2008 that did not feature 
in our other reporting, including: 
 
-- Composite Dialogue Dates Set For May 20 and 21 
-- UPA Announces Record Foodgrain Harvest Estimate 
-- Naxalite/Maoist Incidents Increase in 2007 
-- Women's Empowerment in BJP-Ruled States 
-- Bickering in the Punjab Congress Party Leadership 
-- Congress Takes a Hit on Poorly Implemented Roadway 
-- All Aboard! Railway Reconnects Bengalis 
 
Composite Dialogue Dates Set For May 20 and 21 
------ 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Reftels (ref B, C) previewed that India was set to 
resume Composite Dialogue (CD) talks with Pakistan, once the 
new Pakistani government was prepared to proceed.  Foreign 
Secretary Menon will travel to Islamabad May 20 to meet with 
 
SIPDIS 
his counterpart, and Foreign Minister Mukherjee will meet 
Foreign Minister Qureshi the next day, May 21.  The Foreign 
Secretaries meeting will actually conclude the Fourth Round 
 
SIPDIS 
of the CD, with Mukherjee and Qureshi to open the Fifth 
Round.  (Note: Each round consists of discussions on eight 
specific subjects, ranging from border disputes such as 
Kashmir and Siachen to economic cooperation.  End Note.) 
India hopes that visits by Menon, Mukherjee and possibly 
Narayanan will pave the way for Prime Minister Singh to make 
a visit to Pakistan within the year.  GOI officials told us 
that PM Singh is eager to visit his place of birth (he was 
born in West Punjab).  PM Singh will also visit Nepal, Bhutan 
and Sri Lanka this year. 
 
UPA Announces Record Food grain Harvest Estimate 
------- 
 
¶3.  (U) After months of pummeling by the opposition Bharatiya 
Janata Party (BJP) and by its own Communist and non-Communist 
allies over a variety of issues including the U.S.-India 
civil nuclear agreement and rising food prices, the 
beleaguered Congress Party sought to spread some good cheer. 
The Agriculture Ministry reported on April 23 that it expects 
a record food grain harvest this year with production of 
wheat, rice, pulses, and other cereals estimated to be 227 
million tons during May 2007 to May 2008, 10 million tons 
higher than in the preceding year.  While most observers 
agree that the harvest this year is a good one, there is a 
divergence of views on how good it is and whether it will 
help ease rising food prices or alleviate pressure on the 
Congress Party. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) The food grain harvest announcement was clearly 
intended to provide a boost to the Congress Party and the 
United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government which it leads 
as they lurch into their final year in office in a weakened 
state.  The Congress Party had suffered a string of state 
election losses over the last year, with the most 
disheartening being the trouncing it suffered in Gujarat at 
the hands of the BJP and Narendra Modi.  The Congress Party 
was increasingly perceived as without backbone for its 
failure to stand up to bullying by its Communist partners 
over the U.S.-India civil nuclear deal and other issues.  The 
BJP, unified and with several recent state election wins 
under its belt, sensed blood and escalated its attacks 
questioning the Congress Party's fitness to govern. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) When inflation touched a three-year high of 7.4 
percent earlier this month, the Congress Party was truly on 
 
NEW DELHI 00001166  002 OF 004 
 
 
the ropes.  The government's pronouncement of a "record" 
foodgrain harvest will help to blunt some of these attacks 
and provide respite to the Congress.  The highly beneficial 
timing of the revised estimate, however, raised some 
eyebrows, especially since there were questions about how 
good the harvest is for the really important food grains - 
rice and wheat - and because the Ministry does not have a 
strong record in estimating harvests.  Nonetheless, the 
announcement gives the Congress Party some breathing room and 
the Ministry likely hopes it will suppress hoarding 
inclinations or inflationary expectations, which otherwise 
could spur further inflationary behavior.  As such, the 
announcement on its own works to battle inflation in the 
short term.  End comment. 
 
Naxalite/Maoist Incidents Increase in 2007 
------- 
 
¶6.  (U) The Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) released 
statistics this week showing a modest increase in the number 
of incidents of Naxalite/Maoist violence in India: 1,565 in 
2007, up from 1,506 in 2006.  The number of deaths in these 
incidents also increased from 678 to 696.  MHA data shows 
that the Naxalite/Maoist violence was concentrated in the 
states of Chhatisgarh, Jharkhand, Bihar and Orissa, which 
together accounted for 80 percent of the incidents. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) The data are not good news for the United 
Progressive Alliance (UPA) government because it feeds 
directly into one of the Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP) main 
campaign planks -- that the UPA and the Congress Party are 
soft on terrorism.  The BJP's terrorism theme has three legs: 
Pakistan-inspired Islamic terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir and 
beyond; Chinese-supported insurgencies in the northeastern 
states; and Naxalite/Maoist violence in many central and 
eastern states.  The resounding election victory next door by 
Nepal's Maoist party should serve as a lesson to the GOI that 
these violent leftist movements can gain popular support in 
areas where governance is especially poor. 
 
Women's Empowerment in BJP-ruled States 
------ 
 
¶8.  (U) In a move applauded by women's groups, the Rajasthan 
Government announced a mandatory 50 percent seat reservation 
for women in Panchayati Raj institutions (PRI) by amending 
the 1994 Rajasthan Panchayati Raj Act, which had already 
reserved 33 percent of seats for women. The Panchayati Raj 
system was introduced in the 1950-60s in order to extend 
grass roots self-government opportunities to rural India in 
an effort to boost its socio-economic transformation. 
Uttarkhand had enacted similar legislation earlier this year. 
With this measure, Rajasthan joins Uttarkhand, Madhya 
Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh and Bihar as states which have set 
aside half the panchayat slots for women (Ref A). 
 
¶9.  (U) Comment: Civil Society and women's groups are 
optimistic about this new development but hope that it will 
not deny or delay women PRI leaders the necessary 
administrative support and funding required to support the 
new seats. They emphasized the need for women in PRIs to 
participate in good governance in a genuine way and not sit 
idly along side their male counterparts as mere placeholders. 
They also emphasized the need for change in familial, 
community and government perceptions toward women in PRI. 
Good intentions aside, most see this as a calculated election 
move by the Rajasthan government to appeal to the female 
vote. Rajasthan goes to polls at the end of this year. The 
Rajasthan initiative is also consistent with a BJP strategy 
to target the women's vote nationally. All the states with a 
50 percent quota for women in panchyats are BJP-ruled, 
although the BJP is part of the ruling coalition in Bihar. 
 
NEW DELHI 00001166  003 OF 004 
 
 
The party has also reserved 33 percent of the slots in the 
party organization for women. 
 
Bickering in the Punjab Congress Party Leadership 
------ 
 
¶10.  (U) On April 21, senior Congress leader and Foreign 
Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee summoned former Congress 
Party Punjab Chief Minister Amarinder Singh and current 
President of the Punjab Pradesh Congress Committee Rajinder 
Kaur Bhattal to mediate an ongoing and escalating verbal 
argument between the two leaders which the media and the 
Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) have been closely watching and 
enjoying. The central party leadership came down firmly on 
Singh and Bhattal, telling them to "keep shut" after their 
accusations and counter-accusations became poisonous. The two 
warring leaders were accusing each other of consorting with 
terrorists during the time of the Punjab militancy in the 
1980s. Bhattal accused Singh of housing terrorists and Singh 
alleged that Bhattal had cut a deal with a known terrorist in 
exchange for the freedom of her nephew. 
 
¶11.  (U) The public fighting between Singh and Bhattal 
provided fuel to the ruling Akalis, with President Sukbhir 
Singh Badal lashing out at the Congress Party for the role it 
played during one of the most violent times in Punjab 
history. Based on the comments of Singh and Bhattal, Badal 
accused the Congress Party as having "mothered, nursed, and 
sustained" terrorism in the state. Badal demanded a Central 
Bureau of Investigations probe of the Congress Party's role 
played during the insurgency, saying that the incriminating 
statements lodged by Bhattal and Singh against each other are 
very serious and should not be dismissed. He asserted that 
the statements are not simply an internal Congress Party 
squabble but have public relevance since they imply 
accountability for the death of thousands of Punjabis. 
 
¶12.  (SBU) Comment: The Congress Party's role in the rise of 
militancy in Punjab is well documented. It constitutes 
another shameful chapter in the party's past that it would 
rather not have on the front pages with Lok Sabha polls 
around the corner. The insurgency was a violent time that 
impacted many Punjabis lives and could be extremely damaging 
to the Congress Party in northern India and beyond. The 
public brawl between Bhattal and Singh indicates a fragmented 
Punjab Congress Party which has yet to recover from its 
thumping by the Akali-BJP combine a year ago. 
 
Congress Takes a Hit on Poorly Implemented Roadway 
------ 
 
¶13.  (U) The opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) 
continues to score points against the Congress Party; the 
latest involves extreme traffic congestion on a newly opened 
south Delhi traffic corridor.  The 25 million dollar, 3.5 
mile corridor features a dedicated bus lane and was supposed 
to speed flow of traffic through Delhi.  However, due to a 
lack of manpower, poor signage, faulty traffic signals, and 
general Indian indifference to rules of the road, the 
gridlock chaos it created became front page news, even for 
the national newspapers. 
 
¶14.  (U) The story became bigger news after Chandan Mitra of 
the BJP took to the floor of the Rajya Sahba and called the 
project "scatterbrained," "ill-conceived" and demanded it be 
scrapped entirely.  Congress Party Delhi Chief Minister 
Sheila Dikshit called an emergency meeting to try and solve 
the problem.  As Congress Transport Minister Haroon Yusuf 
said, "We do not want to do anything to inconvenience the 
people in an election year." 
 
¶15.  (SBU) Comment: From national issues such as inflation to 
 
NEW DELHI 00001166  004 OF 004 
 
 
local issues such as traffic congestion, the Congress Party 
cannot seem to do anything right lately.  While overcrowded 
roadways will not likely be a large issue in the coming 
national polls, they will most certainly play a role in the 
Delhi assembly elections scheduled for later this year.  To 
the extent that voter antipathy towards Congress on local 
issues bleeds into the national election, it can only 
strengthen the BJP's case for change. 
 
¶16.  (SBU) Comment Continued: The uproar over the corridor 
reflects the Delhi public's increasing frustration with the 
city's traffic management problem.  As the number of vehicles 
grows exponentially in Delhi - by some estimates 1,000 new 
motorized vehicles are added to DelhI's roads each day - the 
traffic snarls get worse each day, accidents and road rage 
incidents are more frequent, and Delhi's residents are 
unhappier.  There are numerous transportation upgrade 
projects underway in Delhi, but traffic volume is increasing 
at such a pace that it will overwhelm the widened roads and 
new bridges and underpasses by the time they are completed. 
Haphazard and ill-conceived efforts to borrow fixes from 
outside India just add to the mess.  End Comment. 
 
All Aboard! Railway Reconnects Bengalis 
------ 
 
¶17.  (U) On April 14 (Bengali New Year's Day), Kolkata-Dhaka 
direct train service resumed after a hiatus of 43 years. The 
Maitree Express left Dhaka Cantonment railway station for 
Sealdah station in West Bengal, India, for the first time 
since hostilities between India and Bangladesh (then called 
East Pakistan) in 1965 shut down the service. The GOI and GOB 
signed an agreement restoring the railway connection on April 
10 after protracted negotiations and delays, the most recent 
being a disagreement over enclosing portions of the track 
near the border. India's access to its Northeast states (and 
to SE Asia by extension) has been hampered by the mistrust 
between the two countries. India's recently signed Kaladan 
Multi-Modal Transport Project agreement with Burma, for 
example, is partly an effort to establish a route around 
Bangladesh. While the resumption of train service between the 
two countries is a positive development and a confidence 
building measure welcomed by Bengalis on both sides of the 
border, it is largely symbolic.  The GOI remains cautiously 
optimistic that the upward trend in bilateral relations will 
continue, although it believes that an elected government 
must be in place before relations can be taken to the next 
level. 
WHITE