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O 150120Z APR 08
FM AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1313
INFO RUCNCLS/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 6284
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 7673
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RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
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RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 001051 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PTER KDEM NP IN
SUBJECT: INDIA SKEPTICAL NEPALESE ELECTIONS WILL BRING 
STABILITY 
 
SUMMMARY: 
--------- 
 
¶1. (U) GOI officials are publicly upbeat on the 
significance of Nepal's first democratic election in 15 
years, with the MEA officially saluting the Nepalese people 
for taking a positive and important step.  However, Indian 
observers are privately dubious about the outcome of 
Nepal's voting, and point to the immense challenges and 
complications that will face the eventual winning party. 
The multiple acts of violence and terror against candidates 
in the week leading up to the election, as well as reports 
of polling station violence and voter interference fuel 
Indian anxiety that the election's results will be tainted 
and subject to challenge.  The Indian security community is 
reportedly taking no chances on the possibility that 
election turmoil could flare across into India, and has 
tightened border security to preclude this. END SUMMARY. 
 
-- INDIANS OFFICIALLY HAIL ELECTION, PRIVATELY FEAR FIASCO 
-- 
 
¶2. (U) In the week leading up to Nepal's election day, 
Indian pundits and observers have written extensively on 
the importance of Nepal's election, describing it 
alternately as "historic," a "date with democracy," and 
even cribbing from Nehru's legendary speech, a "tryst with 
polls."  Indian observers have noted the excitement with 
which millions of Nepalis have lined up to vote, undeterred 
by election-day violence at some polling stations, 
underlining this will be Nepal's first democratic election 
in 15 years.  On polling day, April 10, India became the 
first foreign government to publicly hail the Nepalese 
election, in an official statement issued by the MEA, 
hailing it as "successful" and "a welcome and historic 
step" and "happy outcome."  The MEA further pledged India's 
intention to stand by the people of Nepal in the major 
tasks of democratization and development that lie ahead 
while building a stable, prosperous and peaceful Nepal. 
Yet as the Hindustan Times points out, the challenges ahead 
for Nepal are immense, for "impoverished, ill-governed" 
Nepal to cement peace after a decade-long civil war. 
India's Ambassador to Nepal Mukherjee reportedly told New 
Delhi media April 10 that the GOI has tightened security 
along the Indo-Nepalese border and will remain on alert for 
at least another week. 
 
-- TOO MUCH DISAGREEMENT MAY PREVENT A PEACEFUL OUTCOME, 
SAY PUNDITS -- 
 
¶3. (U) Indian Nepal-watchers have assessed that Maoist 
leader Puspha Dahal (aka Prachanda), representing the CPN-M 
(Communist Party of Nepal/Maoist) is angling to assume the 
Presidency with the aim of making it the strongest arm of 
the government-to-be, while his supporters shout "Prachanda 
for President" slogans in Nepal's streets. In contrast, 
Indian media notes, his two main competitors, the NC 
(Nepali Congress) party and the UML (Communist Party of 
Nepal - United Marxist/Leninist) party, intend to implement 
a more parliamentary form of government with a weak, 
ceremonial President and a strong Prime Minister, much like 
India's system.  Other Indian observers grimly speculated 
that the election results may be contested by a losing 
faction as not being free and fair.  The Hindustan Times 
wrote in an April 8 article that one of the biggest 
questions facing Nepal is just how well the Maoists will 
fare at the polls, and if they will accept defeat 
peacefully, as they promise. Disgruntled losers in the 
election could dispute the outcome by pointing to violent 
interference on election day at polling stations.  Indian 
media widely reported that voting was suspended at three 
polling stations in Chitwan district, following an incident 
where ballot boxes were kicked over, resulting in a scuffle 
with officials; a separate incident in Galkot where a 
polling station was burnt down, and in the bloodiest 
incident yet, voting at a polling station in the 
mountainous Surkhet region was suspended for a week due to 
bloody clashes between police and Maoist cadres, which left 
seven dead.  The Indian Express noted that the UML has 
lodged 98 complaints with Nepal's Election Commission in 
the run-up to the balloting, all but two against the 
Maoists for intimidating political rivals and violating the 
code of conduct.  The Hindustan Times predicts "no-one 
 
NEW DELHI 00001051  002 OF 002 
 
 
expects the Maoists to win a majority" - that the country's 
long established political heavyweights, the NC and the UML 
are clear favorites, and "equally, few expect the Maoists 
to return to the jungles." 
 
-- SOME INDIANS BELIEVE SOCIAL DIVISIONS WILL CONTINUE TO 
DOG NEPAL DESPITE ELECTIONS -- 
 
¶4. (U) The Calcutta Telegraph underlined that the stark 
social division and mistrust between in Nepal between the 
haves and have-nots will remain regardless of the outcome 
of the elections.  The reporter describes an April 9 scene 
in a bar in Pokhara, Nepal, where affluent Nepalis and 
tourists are drinking and relaxing on the night before 
polls, oblivious to the significance of the voting, with 
one "prosperous native" quoted as saying "Desperately 
waiting for tomorrow to be over - then the real party can 
resume again.  Such a nuisance, this election."  The 
reporter observes that Nepal is a besieged schizophrenia of 
excess and deprivation, and describes its elite as insular 
and unseeing, with a roiling underclass living in desperate 
poverty. 
 
-- COMMENT: INDIA BREATHES A SIGH OF RELIEF AS ELECTIONS 
PASS SURPRISINGLY QUIETLY -- 
 
¶5. (U) Comment.  Indian media has been unexpectedly quiet 
in the first day following what, in the days leading up to 
April 10, was widely considered to be an election that will 
significantly affect India's domestic and cross-border 
interests.  Post suspects that less-than-expected violence 
on Nepal's election day and relatively minimal accusations 
of vote-rigging led to a realization that election day in 
Nepal wasn't the disaster many had been expecting. 
However, Post's contacts have noted from early on that 
judgment of Nepal's democratization process can't be made 
until results have been tabulated, a new government has 
been formed, and the reaction to the political wins and 
losses tests a new, fragile system.  From Delhi's 
perspective, round one was surprisingly uneventful, but the 
fear remains that the real punches are yet to be thrown. 
END COMMENT. 
 
DEIKUN