VZCZCXYZ0010
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHMN #0232/01 1211526
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 301526Z APR 08
FM AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8145
INFO RUCNMER/MERCOSUR COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

UNCLAS MONTEVIDEO 000232 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PINR UY
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION NATIONAL PARTY (BLANCOS) POISED FOR A 
STRONG RUN IN 2009 
 
REF: MONTEVIDEO 1061 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  Political observers consider the 
opposition National Party (Blancos) well-positioned to 
compete against the governing in the 2009 national elections. 
 The Blancos are polling a close second to the governing 
Frente Amplio, with 35% and 42% respectively in March.  The 
poll results and voter angst over recent tax reforms bode 
well for the National Party's chances today, but the 
political landscape is likely to remain very fluid as the 
actual candidates are identified, internal party dynamics 
play out, and political parties and their factions tangle in 
the coming year.  Two longtime Blanco rivals will vie for the 
Blanco nomination - Senator Jorge Larranaga, a self-styled 
gaucho, and Former President Luis Alberto Lacalle, an urbane 
internationalist.  Upstart Carmelo Vidalin is also trying to 
make some noise, but will likely fall short.  END SUMMARY. 
 
POLLS GIVE BLANCOS OPTISMISM 
---------------------------- 
¶2.  (SBU) The National Party (Blancos) is polling very well 
with 35% public support in an April 2008 national survey, a 
figure that has been trending upward.  The governing Frente 
Amplio had fallen to only 42% approval in the March poll, 
reinforcing many observers' beliefs that the Blancos will be 
competitive in presidential elections at the end of 2009. 
This is a marked change from less than a year ago, when the 
Frente Amplio appeared unbeatable.  Since then the 
government's party has been waning in the polls and the 
Blancos are making steady gains.  The Blancos' leaders are 
publicly and privately very optimistic about the party's 
fortunes, but with more than a year before scheduled primary 
elections in June 2009, much remains to be seen. 
 
WHAT TO WATCH FOR... 
-------------------- 
¶3.  (SBU) Party Unity:  While it's clear that the Blancos are 
heading for a contested internal party election in June 2009, 
their public interaction will have a big impact on the 
electorate, especially independents or Frente Amplio swing 
voters, in the general election.  Blancos are traditionally 
tough campaigners who have a history of undermining one 
another, and there is no love lost between the two main 
contenders, Larranaga and Lacalle.  How they treat each other 
is likely to shape whether voters consider the National Party 
mature enough to win the election and run the country.  For 
now, both party leaders have remained civil.  Lacalle 
describes himself as "wiser and more humble" than in the 
past, while Larranaga has been keeping a low profile and has 
yet to officially toss his hat into the ring. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Trends in Maldonado:  The Department of Maldonado, 
traditionally a Blanco stronghold, has become a key 
swing-Department in recent elections.  In 2004 the Frente 
Amplio carried the Department of Maldonado with 47%.  The 
Blanco candidate took 45% and the Colorado 3%.  However, in 
an April 2008 poll, respondents preferred the Blancos over 
the Frente Amplio 37% to 28%.  With a fast-growing population 
(many moving in from other departments), politics in 
Maldonado are shifting and appear to reflect the national 
trends favoring the National Party of late. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Frente Amplio's fortunes:  Many middle class voters 
(a group that played a key role in the Frente Amplio's 
victory in 2004) have suffered under policies enacted by the 
current government, especially a controversial new tax reform 
and increased health insurance taxes.  As the Frente Amplio 
balances the demands of its core constituency (working class, 
pensioners, and the poor), it risks alienating swing voters. 
In addition, persistent allegations of corruption among some 
members of the Frente Amplio government have also tainted a 
clean image the party worked to develop during the 2004 
campaign. 
 
LARRANAGA - CURRENT BLANCO FRONT RUNNER 
--------------------------------------- 
¶6.  (SBU) Senator Jorge Larranaga is viewed inside and 
outside the party as the current front runner to head the 
Blanco ticket in 2009, although he has yet to officially 
announce his intention to run.  With 48% of his party's 
support (according to a March 2008 poll) and longtime 
Presidential ambitions, there is little doubt he will seek 
the nomination.  So far he has kept a low profile.  There is 
significant bad blood between Larranaga and fellow Blanco, 
former President Lacalle.  Larranaga heads the National 
Alianza faction of the Blancos, which he founded in 1999 with 
the purpose of removing Lacalle from office.  He recently 
launched the Wilson Ferreira Aldunate think tank which 
political observers expect will work to shape the eventual 
 
National Party platform ahead of elections. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Larranaga was born in 1956, is a lawyer, and former 
Mayor of Paysandu.  He represents the center/left Wilsonista 
movement and is seen as former President Lacalle's primary 
competitor within the party.  Larrranaga is generally viewed 
as young, hard working, and a strong leader who will try to 
attract Blanco Party votes which fled to the Frente Amplio in 
2004 as well as disenchanted Frente Amplio supporters, 
especially from among the middle class.  Larranaga was the 
Blanco candidate in 2004, but only carried 34% of the vote. 
(Complete bio provided septel). 
 
LACALLE - FORMER PRESIDENT SEEKS TO RETURN 
------------------------------------------ 
¶8.  (SBU) Former President Luis Alberto Lacalle announced in 
April 2008 that he is running for his old office.  Lacalle 
heads the Herrerismo faction of the National Party, which 
espouses liberal economic policies such as free trade and 
privatization.  He has promised to revise laws enacted by the 
Frente Amplio government, especially the unpopular tax reform 
law.   A March 2008 poll showed Lacalle with 29% of his 
party's support.  While he trails Larranaga in the polls 
today, he has a respectable following by Uruguayan political 
standards at this early date. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Lacalle was President from 1990-1995, a period of 
relative economic prosperity both in Uruguay and the region. 
He uses the political slogan, "you live better with the 
Blancos," alluding to the positive feeling many Uruguayans 
have from the time of his presidency.  However, his 
administration was also rocked by allegations of corruption, 
which led to the conviction and imprisonment of senior 
government officials.  Lacalle ran for the Blanco nomination 
and lost to Larranaga in 2004.  (Complete bio provided 
septel). 
 
 
VIDALIN - TRYING TO CREATE POLITICAL SPACE 
------------------------------------------ 
¶10. (SBU) Carmelo Vidalin was a long-time member of Lacalle's 
Herrerismo faction, but left in February 2008 to run for 
president as an independent Blanco.  Vidalin is a very 
popular two-term intendente (governor) of Durazno, a small 
Department in the interior.  Vidalin is ineligible for 
reelection.  While he brings a new name to the early race for 
the Blanco nomination, he has not developed a strong national 
following.  His candidacy for president presents a chance for 
him to expand his support and perhaps land a key position if 
the Blancos win the election.  Vidalin appeals to many of the 
same young and more centrist voters as Larranaga.  Some 
observers believe he may draw votes away from Larranaga, 
thereby reinforcing the candidacy of his former leader, 
Lacalle.  The March 2008 poll showed Vidalin with 11% of his 
party's support.  (Complete bio provided septel). 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
¶11. (SBU) COMMENT:  The key to the Blancos' chances in 2009 
will be to force a second round in the general election, 
which occurs if no party wins 50% of the vote.  In a second 
round, Colorado voters will be much more likely to support 
the Blanco candidate over the Frente Amplio.  Whether the 
eventual winner in a second round is a Blanco or from Frente 
Amplio, that government will have to contend with a divided 
congress, whose members are apportioned based on votes in the 
first round. 
 
Matthewman