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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MANAGUA 000418 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA/CEN AND DRL 
STATE PASS USAID FOR BONICELLI/CARDENAS 
NSC FOR FISK/ALVARADO 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/07/2018 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM NU
SUBJECT: LIBERAL DEPUTIES OPTIMISTIC ON ELECTION, 
PESSIMISTIC ON ORTEGA GOVERNMENT 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Paul Trivelli, Reasons 1.4 (b and d) 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
¶1. (C) National Assembly Deputies from the Constitutional 
Liberal Party (PLC) are concerned about the direction of the 
Ortega government.  In particular, they are worried that the 
Supreme Electoral Council (CSE) decision to suspend elections 
in the North Atlantic Autonomous Region (RAAN) would provoke 
another political and constitutional crisis, represent an 
over reach of the authority of the CSE, and set a dangerous 
precedent that the government might use to cancel other 
elections where they feel politically threatened.  Deputies 
characterized the government as a "failure," and believe 
Ortega and First Lady Rosario Murillo are using the Citizen 
Power Councils (CPCs) to establish a parallel FSLN structure 
to consolidate their hold over the country.  At the same 
time, the Deputies are optimistic about their chances to gain 
additional seats in the upcoming municipal elections and 
spoke positively of Managua mayoral candidate Eduardo 
Montealegre and their alliance with Montealegre's movement, 
Vamos Con Eduardo.  Left unsaid was the potential role 
ex-President and PLC leader Arnoldo Aleman could play in 
stifling Montealegre's chances in Managua or in collaborating 
with the FSLN to further erode democratic space in Nicaragua. 
 End Summary. 
 
¶2. (U) On March 28, as part of an outreach effort to party 
leaders of the four main parties in the National Assembly, 
Ambassador hosted a lunch with four senior Deputies from the 
Constitutional Liberal Party (PLC).  Participants included: 
Francisco Aguirre Sacasa (PLC party secretary, former Foreign 
Minister and Ambassador to the U.S. and current chair of the 
Production, Economic and Budget Committee); Jose Pallais 
(former Vice-Minister of Government and Foreign Affairs and 
current chair of the Justice Committee); Maximino Rodriguez 
(former Contra leader, chief of the PLC party (bancada) in 
the National Assembly and member of the Justice Committee and 
the Peace, Defense and Human Rights Committee); and Carlos 
Noguera Pastora (President of the Tourism Committee). 
 
Postponement of Elections in the RAAN 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (C) The Deputies expressed serious concern over reports 
that the Supreme Electoral Council (CSE) is likely to 
announce the suspension of municipal elections in three 
municipalities in the North Atlantic Autonomous Region 
(RAAN).  Rodriguez argued that the CSE does not have the 
authority to suspend the elections (Note: The CSE issued a 
decision to suspend the election late in the evening of April 
¶4.  End Note).  "They can't assume authority that the law 
doesn't give them."  Noguera commented that the actions of 
the CSE were likely to blow elections in the RAAN out of 
proportion to both their population and economic importance 
and create another national crisis.  At a minimum, in 
Pallais' view, it would create another crisis in the National 
Assembly, and he noted that the PLC and deputies of Vamos Con 
Eduardo (VCE) blocked further legislative work on March 27 in 
protest of FSLN and President Ortega's support for suspension 
of the elections.  Rodriguez echoed the concerns of the 
others that the suspension in the RAAN on specious, and 
constantly changing, grounds would set a bad precedent for 
elections in the rest of the country.  "If they can do it 
there, they can do it in any municipality at any time.  What 
would stop them from canceling elections in Managua?" 
 
¶4. (C) Pallais believes that the postponement is designed to 
secure FSLN Deputy Brooklyn Rivera's continued hold over the 
region and prevent devastating losses in the elections. 
President Ortega and his wife, Rosario Murillo, support 
Rivera because he is another proponent of "direct democracy," 
similar to what Ortega-Murillo have engineered through the 
Citizen Power Councils (CPCs) in the rest of the country. 
Rivera, in the past, has denounced traditional elections as 
"an invention of the Spanish" and relies on local indigenous 
councils as his base of support and power.  If he fails, 
Pallais commented, it would be a blow to Ortega's national 
effort at "direct democracy." 
 
Optimistic About Municipal Elections and Liberal Alliance 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
 
MANAGUA 00000418  002 OF 003 
 
 
 
¶5. (C) The Deputies were optimistic about their chances to 
hold their current number of municipalities and make gains in 
the upcoming elections.  Noguera expressed the view that the 
PLC-VCE alliance would win "no less than 80 municipalities" 
-- and could win a few more than that (out of 153).  All 
agreed the priority is to win Managua, dismissing media 
reports that the PLC is working to undermine VCE candidate 
Eduardo Montealegre.  Noguera noted that the elections will 
be a challenge, especially in Managua and will "cost a lot." 
Aguirre Sacasa, reflecting on previous elections cycles, 
commented that if the PLC-VCE alliance can win Managua, they 
win the country.  In 2004, the Liberals lost badly, but 
Aguirre Sacasa believes the 2008 elections will be different 
-- Ortega and the FSLN are now in power and have managed the 
country poorly.  The elections are turning into a referendum 
on Ortega and the VCE-PLC alliance helps "polarize" the 
choice facing the electorate. 
 
¶6. (C) Rodriguez noted that the actual electoral process will 
be a challenge.  They will need to work hard to get the vote 
out.  More importantly, the alliance will need between 10,000 
and 15,000 party poll watchers, in part to make up for the 
fact that the FSLN will, in effect, control all the municipal 
and departmental electoral commissions.  The problem, in 
Rodriguez's view, is that the VCE-PLC alliance does not yet 
have those people identified and lacks the financial 
resources to organize and train them.  Getting the vote out 
on election day will similarly be critical and will present a 
logistical and financial challenge. 
 
¶7. (C) Aguirre Sacasa expressed concern that the private 
sector would not contribute to the alliance, making the task 
all the more difficult.  In particular, he is concerned that 
the Conservative Party (PC) had put forward its own 
candidate, prominent businessman Mauricio Mendieta, and has 
not joined the alliance.  He believes the PC's decision not 
to join was Montealegre's fault, but acknowledged that the 
PLC (by implication Aleman) had been meeting with PC 
separately to form their own alliance.  The private sector 
could use Mendieta's candidacy as an excuse not to provide 
financial support, claiming the democratic forces remained 
divided and drawing off the "country club" financial backers. 
 Moreover, the PC's running its own candidate and 
Montealegre's former party, the Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance 
(ALN) also running their own candidate, could serve to draw 
key percentages of votes away from the alliance, especially 
in Managua, due to simple voter confusion.  Aguirre Sacasa 
believes the Sandinista Renovation Movement (MRS) will not 
hurt the alliance's chances, but would rather continue to 
draw votes away from the FSLN, particularly in light of 
dissatisfaction among Sandinista's with Ortega's 
administration. 
 
ORTEGA GOVERNMENT "A FAILURE" 
---------------------------- 
 
¶8. (C) Not surprisingly, the Deputies characterized the 
Ortega administration as "a failure."  Aguirre Sacasa 
commented that Ortega has failed in every key program - the 
CPCs, Zero Hunger, Zero Usury, etc.  While the people see 
this, even those from the FSLN base, this hasn't stopped 
Ortega.  In Noguera's view, Ortega-Murillo are working to 
stay in power as long as possible and are concentrating more 
power in their hands.  The CPCs are key to this effort and 
Pallais revealed that the FSLN is looking to change the law 
on civic participation to further concentrate power into the 
hands of the CPCs and Ortega.  According to Pallais, the CPCs 
are a parallel structure of the FSLN for the express purpose 
of ensuring Ortega family control over all aspects of party 
and government.  While the CPCs failed as a bottom-up 
movement from the base, they are now a well-paid professional 
parallel structure.  "What we have is a Marxist-Leninist 
family-based authoritarian government."  Both Aguirre Sacasa 
and Pallais believe that the funds for the CPCs are coming 
directly from Venezuela and would remain outside of the 
national budget so as to prevent the National Assembly from 
exercising oversight. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
 
MANAGUA 00000418  003 OF 003 
 
 
¶9. (C) The PLC Deputies were upbeat on the elections and, 
surprisingly, refrained from their usual criticism of 
Montealegre and others of the VCE.  While their remarks were 
likely tailored for the USG audience, they did express a 
greater sense that the Liberals (PLC and VCE) and the broader 
pro-democratic movement faced a common threat in the 
anti-democratic tendencies of the Ortega government and that 
the municipal elections are critical to facing that threat. 
The unspoken elephant in the room remains ex-president and 
convicted felon Arnoldo Aleman and the role he continues to 
play in the PLC and nationally through the "Pacto" with the 
FSLN.  Only a passing reference to Aleman was made by 
Rodriguez, more in reference to "errors" in U.S. policy in 
previous elections.  All four deputies have made public and 
private criticisms of Aleman and would like to position 
themselves to be the leader of the Liberals when he passes 
from the political scene.  However, none have demonstrated a 
willingness to directly challenge Aleman's continue 
leadership of the party or make a move that would hasten his 
departure. Aleman's continued control over the party, 
especially through the CSE and CSJ, continue to raise 
concerns about how long the VCE-PLC alliance, and 
Montealegre's candidacy in particular, will last and whether 
any of the concerns the PLC Deputies raised will be addressed 
in the coming months. 
 
 
TRIVELLI