VZCZCXRO6745
PP RUEHLMC
DE RUEHMU #0416/01 0991926
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 081926Z APR 08
FM AMEMBASSY MANAGUA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2390
INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORP WASHDC PRIORITY
RUMIAAA/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL//J2\J3\J5// PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 MANAGUA 000416 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT PLS PASS TO USAID LAC 
DEPT FOR WHA/CEN GREENE AND NYMAN 
DEPT FOR DRL G. MAGGIO 
DEPT FOR INR/IAA - EMERSON 
DEPT FOR USOAS 
NSC FOR V ALVARADO 
SOUTHCOM FOR FPA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/08/2018 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM ECON KDEM NU
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR VISITS MINING TRIANGLE - UNCERTAINTY 
PREVAILS 
 
REF: A. MANAGUA 105 
 
     ¶B. MANAGUA 209 
     ¶C. MANAGUA 212 
     ¶D. MANAGUA 297 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Paul A. Trivelli for reasons 1.4(b,d) 
 
¶1.  (C) SUMMARY:  The Liberal Constitutional Party (PLC) and 
"Vamos Con Eduardo" -- former members of the Nicaraguan 
Liberal Alliance (ALN) loyal to Eduardo Montealegre -- are 
running on unified tickets in November's Municipal elections 
in the Mining Triangle towns of Bonanza, Rosita, and Siuna in 
the interior of Nicaragua's Northern Atlantic Autonomous 
Region (RAAN).  However, in all three municipalities they 
lack clear campaign strategies or visions for the future, 
believing that popular dislike for their archival Sandinista 
National Liberation Front (FSLN) -- fueled by mismanagement 
and politicization of hurricane relief supplies -- will 
guarantee victory.  Suspension of elections in the 
neighboring municipalities of Puerto Cabezas, Waspam, and 
Prinzapolka by the President Ortega-controlled Supreme 
Electoral Council (CSE), according to local leaders, is 
motivated more by the potential loss of lucrative logging 
contracts for trees felled by Hurricane Felix than by strict 
political concerns. 
 
¶2.  (C) Transparent and free elections in November in the 
region are threatened.  Political leaders fear that the CSE 
will facilitate changes of address for FSLN supporters from 
the three election-suspended municipalities, enabling them to 
vote in Liberal-controlled Siuna and Rosita.  An influx of as 
few as 1,000 voters into these municipalities would virtually 
guarantee Liberal losses given the towns' relatively small 
voter bases.  Leaders are also worried about voters being 
listed in other municipalities, the high percentage of 
eligible voters without "cedulas" (national ID), and the 
steep reduction in the number of independent election 
observers assigned to the region.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) On a recent three day (March 31-April 2) trip to 
the RAAN's "Mining Triangle" towns of Siuna and Rosita, the 
Ambassador met with mayors, Liberal mayoral candidates, 
community leaders, and civil society organizations to assess 
the reality of Liberal unity at the local level, to discuss 
how well the region is recovering from the affects of 
Hurricane Felix, and to understand the potential impact of 
possible election delays in the neighboring municipalities of 
Puerto Cabezas, Waspam, and Prinzapolka.  The Ambassador also 
visited USAID-funded health projects in each town, breaking 
ground on a much needed well for a hospital in Rosita, and 
inaugurating an ultrasound diagnosis system at he health 
clinic in Siuna that allows doctors in Managua to remotely 
view ultrasound results of expectant mothers and discuss 
their cases in real-time with local doctors.  This system is 
expected to sharply reduce maternal mortality rates in the 
municipality which are the highest in Nicaragua. 
 
Liberal Unified, but Lack Energy and Vision 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶4.  (C)  Despite the turmoil created last month when ALN 
President Eduardo Montealegre was stripped of his control 
over the party just weeks before the candidate inscription 
deadline (ref B) and significant disagreement between 
Montealegre's supporters and local PLC leaders over candidate 
lists, the two parties successfully struck alliances in 
Rosita, Bonanza, and even Siuna where, only one month ago, it 
appeared such compromise was impossible (ref C).  However, 
although now unified, the new "Liberal Alliance" in Rosita 
and Siuna have no clear campaign strategy or messages, and 
presented no concise visions for the future of these 
municipalities.  When asked directly by the Ambassador to 
define their visions and strategies, the reactions were the 
same: the candidates shuffled uncomfortably in their chairs, 
exchanged glances, and after a half minute of silence, 
produced generic answers about transparency and not stealing 
 
MANAGUA 00000416  002 OF 005 
 
 
money.  We repeatedly heard the mantra that Siuna and Rosita 
are Liberal strongholds and, therefore Liberal candidates 
will win.  (COMMENT: The exception was the vice-mayoral 
candidate from Bonanza -- representing Vamos Con Eduardo -- 
who displayed an impressive grasp of the regions issues and 
challenges and painted a clear vision for regional 
development.  END COMMENT) 
 
¶5.  (C) In place of outlining campaign strategies, Liberal 
candidates complained that the FSLN is well-financed with 
money from the central government and outside assistance from 
Venezuela, enabling FSLN candidates to mount sizable 
campaigns while the Liberals have nothing.  Liberal 
candidates repeatedly asked the Ambassador for direct 
campaign financing on the order of USD 50,000 for Siuna, USD 
30,000 for Mulukuku, USD 30,000 for Rosita, and USD 15,000 
for Bonanza.  The Ambassador reminded them that the USG 
cannot finance political campaigns, but pledged to put them 
in contact with the Republican and Democratic Institutes (IRI 
and NDI, respectively) to discuss possible training 
opportunities.  He also recommended that Liberal-affiliated 
NGOs in the region apply for USAID democracy funds. 
 
Hurricane Relief Mismanagement - An FSLN Weak Spot? 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶6.  (C) Candidates -- and members of civil society -- 
universally agreed that the FSLN has grossly mismanaged 
hurricane relief efforts by politicizing the distribution of 
assistance, strong-arming residents in affected communities 
to join President Ortega's Citizen Power Councils (CPC) or 
withholding assistance.  Examples of directly affected 
communities that did not receive assistance because they 
would not acquiesce to the CPCs are still fresh in people's 
memories.  However, Liberal candidates failed to articulate 
strategies to actively exploit this FSLN weakness.  Instead, 
they appeared to take it on faith that people recognize the 
FSLN's poor performance and would automatically vote for 
Liberal candidates as a result. 
 
The Politics of Wood - The Real Story Behind the Election 
Suspension 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
- - - - 
 
¶7.  (C) Civil society, political candidates, and mayors all 
agreed that FSLN and their Yatama allies' mismanagement of 
the Hurricane Felix situation as well as the regional 
government's failure to deliver on promised social and 
economic development programs virtually guarantee that the 
FSLN and Yatama would lose if elections were held in the 
hurricane-affected municipalities of Puerto Cabezas, Waspam, 
and Prinzapolka.  However, they insisted that election loss, 
per se, is not Ortega and Yatama's principal reason for 
pushing to suspend elections (reftel A, C, D) in these three 
municipalities.  Instead, our contacts universally agreed 
that Ortega and Yatama leaders fear that election loss would 
cause them to lose control over very lucrative concessions to 
remove an estimated one million hectares in timber downed by 
Hurricane Felix.  While the mayors themselves do not control 
concession approval, the future composition of the Regional 
Council -- which does control the concessions -- would 
inevitably shift towards greater Liberal control of the 
Council's 45 seats. (NOTE: Liberals currently control 16 
seats.) 
 
¶8.  (C) There is already strong suspicion that the pro-FSLN 
Yatama-controlled Council is granting -- or facilitating -- 
timber concessions to companies outside the region that have 
Sandinista ties while local timber companies and landowners 
are unable to harvest their own timber.  Several contacts -- 
including three Liberal members of the Regional Council -- 
mentioned that the Council, in its last session, had granted 
a 60-year concession to a previously unknown company called 
Raya Ka Raya.  While media reports claim it is a U.S. 
company, one of the Liberal Council members revealed, by 
 
MANAGUA 00000416  003 OF 005 
 
 
name, several partners affiliated with the FSLN and Yatama. 
(COMMENT:  Ironically, despite the fact that the Regional 
Council had recently voted on the concession, none of the 
three Liberal members we met with had a clear or complete 
understanding of concession terms, raising doubts about, at 
best, their active participation in the discussions and, at 
worse, their active collusion in the deal.  END COMMENT) 
 
Threats to November's Municipal Elections 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶9.  (C) Over the course of meetings with the candidates and 
civil society leaders, several issues were raised that could 
clearly threaten the transparency and fairness of November's 
Municipal elections in the largely rural municipalities of 
Rosita, Siuna, and Bonanza: 
 
-- Reduction in number of accredited observers: 
Representatives from Ethics and Transparency (EyT) in Rosita 
and Siuna warned that their observer numbers had been cut in 
half for November's election due to a lack of funding, 
leaving Rosita with 28 observers (down from 45 in 2006) and 
Siuna with 70 observers (down from 114 in 2006). 
 
-- Political affiliation of ALN voting table members:  As the 
winner of the second largest number of votes in the 2006 
Presidential elections, the ALN has the legal right to fill 
the presidency or first member position of each voting table 
in November's election.  However, with control over the ALN 
reverting back to Eliseo Nunez Sr. -- who has reportedly 
struck a deal with Ortega -- members of the Liberal Alliance 
in Siuna, Rosita, and Bonanza fear that the ALN's voting 
table positions will be filled by FSLN members because most 
of the already small base of ALN supporters in these 
municipalities left the party for Vamos Con Eduardo, leaving 
the legal ALN party with very few bodies to fill the 
positions. 
 
-- Influx of voters from municipalities where elections were 
suspended:  Political leaders fear that if elections in 
Puerto Cabezas, Waspam, and Prinzapolka were suspended (NOTE: 
A fear later confirmed the evening of April 5 when the CSE 
announced that elections would be suspended in these three 
municipalities. END NOTE), the FSLN -- through its control of 
the CSE -- will encourage the influx of a large number of 
FSLN supporters into Liberal-controlled Siuna and Rosita by 
quickly facilitating changes of address, a normally lengthy 
step required to appear on voter lists.  Liberals reported 
that an influx of less than 1,000 voters into either 
municipality would tip the scales in favor of FSLN 
candidates.  (NOTE:  This change of address scheme could be 
most easily accomplished in Puerto Cabezas, the most 
populated city in the RAAN and also the location of the CSE's 
regional office, making it very easy for FSLN supporters to 
complete the necessary paperwork.  END NOTE) 
 
-- Unverified Voter Lists:  EyT representatives and Liberal 
candidates also expressed concern about the "raton loco" 
(crazy rat) phenomenon that affected rural voters in the 2006 
Presidential elections in which voters' names appear on voter 
lists in other communities or municipalities far from home. 
Given the generally poor level of infrastructure, limited 
public transportation, little knowledge of their electoral 
rights, and high poverty levels of rural populations, most 
voters in such situations simply go home without voting. 
They are unable to argue their right to vote in their 
traditional voting center and find it is too difficult and 
expensive to travel to the location where their name appears. 
 
-- Lack of documentation: Given that some 85 percent of the 
Mining Triangle's residents are rural, contacts warned that a 
significant portion (while exact figures were not available, 
estimates ranged from 30-50 percent) of the voting-age 
population lack either a "cedula" or a birth certificate 
(required to obtain a cedula).  Getting a cedula is difficult 
because residents must travel to Puerto Cabezas -- 5 hours by 
 
MANAGUA 00000416  004 OF 005 
 
 
bus at a cost of nearly USD 25 -- and wait several days for 
the documents to be issued.  With the regional CSE under the 
control of the FSLN, contacts complained that 
Liberal-oriented voters are often sent away empty-handed with 
the excuse of missing documents, technical problems, etc. or 
are made to wait for long periods of time.  As a result, many 
residents simply do not bother to get a cedula (SEPTEL).  In 
contrast, contacts insisted that the FSLN is facilitating the 
issuance of cedulas for FSLN or pro-FSLN Yatama members. 
 
Economic Situation is Mixed 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶10.  (U) Cattle ranching is the dominant economic activity 
between Rio Blanco -- the border town between the RAAN and 
the department of Boaco -- and Rosita, leading the mayor of 
Siuna to dub the area the "milk triangle" instead of the 
mining triangle.  Along the 5-hour drive between the two 
towns, there is a nearly unbroken string of barbed-wire 
fences strung between a collage of painted fence posts, and 
cattle-hauling trucks lumbering past farmers sitting by the 
side of the road, waiting for the milk truck to collect their 
few battered canisters of milk.  Basic agriculture and 
largely informal mining are the other primary activities in 
the region. 
 
¶11. (U) There is wide-spread recognition that most 
cattle-farming operation are inefficient due to ranchers' 
ignorance about intensive land-use techniques and the 
availability of relatively cheap land.  This rapid spread in 
cattle farming has caused an alarming loss in forest land, 
threatening watersheds and pressuring near-by bio-reserve 
Political and community leaders want to see vocational 
programs to teach ranchers better land-use practices, 
including more intensive cattle-raising practices and 
economic diversification that would restore tree cover such 
as growing cacao, citrus fruits, and even coffee in some 
areas.  The main obstacle to re-orienting ranchers is a lack 
of resources in municipal governments and local community 
groups.  The Ambassador encouraged contact with Rainforest 
Alliance and other organizations with similar expertise. 
 
Community Property is a Common Source of Conflict 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶12. (U) Immigration from surrounding regions is driving the 
growth in cattle raising as poor farmers (and rich land 
speculators) look for cheaper land.  According to Siuna's 
police commissioner, one "manzana" (approximately 1.7 acres) 
in Rosita or Siuna is USD 500 compared to USD 10,000 in the 
neighboring department of Matagalpa.  This influx of 
immigrants has created serious tensions between the small 
indigenous population and the growing number of "mestizo" 
(mixed) from neighboring departments.  By law, most land in 
the RAAN is held communally, however, much of it is 
unoccupied (and thus cheap).  Given low indigenous population 
densities, new immigrants simply take the land or buy it from 
indigenous communities unfamiliar with property values.  The 
director of FADCANIC, an indigenous NGO promoting further 
autonomy for the region, wryly captured the essence of the 
clash between indigenous and mestizo land-use philosophies 
when he commented that "(Indigenous peoples) use landmarks to 
indicate the limits of their territory, mestizos use 
barbwire." 
 
 
Comment - Opportunities for Further US Assistance 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶13.  (C) A number of clear opportunities for continued USG 
assistance through existing programs emerged from the trip 
and we will make every effort to facilitate contacts between 
our current partners and these various groups.  Opportunities 
include: 
 
-- Scholarships:  In light of the paucity of post-secondary 
 
MANAGUA 00000416  005 OF 005 
 
 
educational opportunities available in the region and its 
high level of poverty, there was great interest in 
scholarship opportunities.  However, our contacts were 
generally unaware of the full range of USG scholarship 
programs.  Our public affair section will follow-up and 
provide further information. 
 
-- Small business development:  There is a great need (and 
awareness) to diversify the region's economy.  New crops such 
as coffee, cacao, and citrus fruits as well as tourism in the 
bioreserve have excellent potential in the region.  USAID 
will facilitate contact with existing U.S. partners including 
Rainforest Alliance, Agora Partnership, Technoserve, and 
others. 
 
-- Capacity building for farmers:  Cattle-ranching will 
clearly remain the Mining Triangle's key economic driver for 
the foreseeable future.  Therefore, as many leaders pointed 
out, working the ranchers to maximize usage of current 
ranchland and limit clear-cutting of additional forestland 
will essential to preserving potable water supplies in the 
region.  As capacity building efforts should also include 
economic diversification as described above, USAID's outreach 
efforts to existing partners will explore training options as 
well. 
 
TRIVELLI