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TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7350
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UNCLAS LA PAZ 000999 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV ECON KPAO ASEC BL
SUBJECT: SANTA CRUZ AUTONOMY VOTE: PLANS FOR A "BIG PARTY" 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: During an April 24-27 visit to Santa Cruz 
(including the capital city and the rural towns of San Javier and 
Concepcion), American Presence Post officer's (APP) interlocutors 
downplayed fears of violent confrontation and predicted the May 4 
autonomy referendum would be a "big party."  Supporters of President 
Evo Morales' MAS party are mostly planning to abstain from the vote. 
 Civic leaders have recruited and trained volunteers to help 
maintain the peace in the absence of police commitment and manpower, 
and are disseminating a consistent message of non-violence.  Voter 
turnout is expected to be high, and polls predict a resounding 
victory for autonomy in the range of 70-80 percent.  End summary. 
 
 
¶2. (SBU) APP officer visited Santa Cruz April 24-27 to gauge the 
temperature prior to the May 4 autonomy referendum.  Contacts in the 
Santa Cruz Civic Committee and Prefecture outlined preparations for 
voting day.  Traditionally motor vehicles are not allowed to 
circulate during elections, but the authorities know they cannot 
count on the national police to enforce roadblocks.  Therefore, the 
civic committee has organized volunteers to set up and man 
roadblocks at the entrances to each neighborhood.  Because people 
are used to such roadblocks on election days, no one expects 
controversy.  Nor will there be massive conflicts between people in 
different neighborhoods, because they will not be able to get to one 
another.  Thus, any conflicts will be contained locally within 
neighborhoods.  The civic committee also secured agreement from 
2,500 vendors to avoid opening markets on referendum day, and from 
the public transportation union.  This should also contribute to 
peace and order; the city will come to a halt. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Civic committee leaders are confident there will not be 
marches on Santa Cruz by "social movements" from La Paz or by 
cocaleros from the Chapare region of Cochabamba.  But in case there 
is any unexpected eastward movement by these groups, Santa Cruz 
leaders have a simple contingency plan: block the roads into the 
department.  It's too far to walk. 
 
¶4. (SBU) The prefecture and electoral authorities have invited many 
groups to "observe" the elections, although they could not convince 
the Foreign Ministry to convoke international observers from 
Embassies or the Organization of American States.  Some of the 
groups expected to be present in Santa Cruz on May 4 include human 
rights foundations from Colombia and Argentina; Human Rights Watch 
from the U.S.; individual state governors and national legislators 
from Paraguay, Brazil, Argentina, and Chile; and prefects and mayors 
from throughout Bolivia.  Several Embassies (including the U.S.) are 
sending officers from La Paz to Santa Cruz to be present during the 
election; they will not/not be there in the capacity of "observers." 
 As of April 24, there were 300 journalists from 200 media outlets 
from 45 countries accredited to report on the referendum (many are 
also covering the Baroque Music Festival currently taking place in 
the Jesuit Mission communities throughout Santa Cruz). 
 
¶5. (SBU) The pro-autonomy campaign has focused on a positive message 
in a festive atmosphere, and civic authorities have disseminated a 
consistent "no violence" message from the start.  However, they 
admit there are some radicalized groups in Santa Cruz over which 
they have no control, and the government's strategy will be to 
provoke violent incidents that will de-legitimize the results. 
Therefore, they are redoubling efforts to get out the "no-violence" 
instruction to all the volunteers that will be helping to maintain 
order, both those from Santa Cruz and those that are arriving from 
other "Media Luna" departments (Pando, Beni and Tarija) to help. 
The closing event of the "yes" campaign will be a candlelight vigil 
on May 30 with the message "Light the eternal flame of hope" for a 
better Bolivia. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Voter turnout is expected to be high.  In a normal election 
year, about 35,000 new voters register in Santa Cruz (those that 
turn 18, those that have changed residences, those that have 
migrated from other areas of the country).  This year, 100,000 new 
voters registered.  The civic committee explained some of that 
number were voters that were erased from the list by the National 
Electoral Court and then re-registered.  However, that alone can not 
explain the massive numbers of new registered voters.  There is 
great enthusiasm for the referendum. 
 
¶7. (SBU) The civic 
committee's latest polls show that autonomy will 
win in all the districts of the city, even in those neighborhoods 
where Evo Morales' MAS party has strong support.  Autonomy is  also 
expected to win in all but two of the 15 provinces.  In another 
decision aimed at keeping the peace, the departmental electoral 
court will send ballots to all municipalities, but will not force 
any locality to open a polling booth.  Therefore, in those few areas 
where most citizens are opposed to the referendum, or where 
authorities fear conflict, voting simply might not take place. 
 
Don't Vote No, Just Don't Go 
---------------------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) Despite the conflicting messages in the media (with the 
government calling for mobilizations against the referendum one day 
and denying it the next), the order trickling down to MAS party 
bases is to abstain.  The government hopes low voter turnout will 
either invalidate the referendum, or at least de-legitimize it. 
Polls show that as many as 80 percent of registered voters plan to 
vote, so this strategy seems futile, although it will indeed help 
avoid confrontation on May 4.  In any case, it is an easy order to 
follow in the face of an inevitable win for the autonomy referendum. 
 
 
Pro-Autonomy Masistas 
--------------------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) The towns of San Javier and Concepcion both elected MAS 
mayors and have generally greater sympathy for the Morales 
government than residents of Santa Cruz city.  Nonetheless, the MAS 
mayor of San Javier proudly presented APP officer with a "Si, 
Autonomia" keychain.  He said that though he was elected on the MAS 
ticket, he represented the town's citizens, and they overwhelmingly 
believed autonomy was the best path to future development.  The 
mayor said he had received a Venezuelan check under the "Evo Cumple" 
program, and had used the money to refurbish the soccer stadium, to 
the delight of the town's youth.  President Morales was putting 
tremendous pressure on the mayor to inaugurate the project on 
Saturday, April 26, but the mayor pushed back.  He told APP, "I 
don't want Evo in my town the week before the referendum."  The 
Mayor of Concepcion, who replaced the original MAS mayor when he 
stepped down due to corruption charges, told a similar story. 
 
¶10. (SBU) Both mayors insisted there would not be referendum-related 
violence in the provinces, although they were taking precautions. 
For example, there are only two police assigned to the municipality 
of San Javier, but the mayor's office had recruited 120 citizen 
volunteers to maintain security, both during the ongoing Baroque 
Music Festival, and the referendum.  A MAS city council employee in 
San Javier said she was firmly opposed to autonomy, but knew it 
would win.  She said she and like-minded citizens simply would not 
vote, and would focus on what comes next (reconciling the autonomy 
statute with the MAS draft constitution). 
 
¶11. (SBU) Comment: Though it is impossible to be certain no violence 
will occur on May 4 in the Santa Cruz department, local authorities 
are working hard to maintain the festive atmosphere and minimize the 
potential for conflict.  They recognize that the referendum is not 
the end of a process, but the beginning, and the hardest work is yet 
to come. 
GOLDBERG