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C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 000854 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/27/2018 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PBTS OFDP OVIP BL AR CO BR
SUBJECT: DIALOGUE: MUCH ADO ABOUT INTERNATIONAL VOICES 
 
REF: A. LA PAZ 751 
 
     ¶B. LA PAZ 735 
 
Classified By: EcoPol Chief Mike Hammer for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
¶1. (C) Summary.  OAS Political Secretary Dante Caputo seemed 
resigned to the fact that the opposition is holding firm to a 
May 4 date for an autonomy referendum in Santa Cruz 
Department (state) and will not sacrifice it as a means to 
expedite a new round of negotiations with the government. 
Caputo met April 14 and 15 with the four opposition 
department prefects (governors) planning autonomy referendums 
in May and June and with Bolivian President Evo Morales. 
Caputo and the prefects affirmed any dialogue would be a 
long-term affair.  Vice President Alvaro Garcia Linera and 
other government officials argued dialogue needed to start 
before the May 4 vote, while simultaneously discounting the 
May 4 vote as insignificant and illegal.  On a positive note, 
the government is backing, at least publicly, a series of 
ostensibly peaceful "national unity marches" May 4, instead 
of a heavy-handed crackdown by security forces or more 
provocative actions by social groups.  Opposition leaders 
remain highly skeptical of government dialogue overtures. 
Meanwhile, the international community is piling on official 
and unofficial statements of concern (EU, CAN, Japan, 
Paraguay) and offers to help mediate (EU, CAN).  Although 
international interest is welcome, it is highly unlikely any 
third party can move dialogue forward before May 4.  In any 
event, it will take time to rebuild the trust between the two 
sides.  End Summary. 
 
¶2. (U) OAS Political Secretary Dante Caputo returned to 
Bolivia for a nearly four-hour meeting with the opposition 
Department prefects (state governors) of Santa Cruz, Tarija, 
Beni, and Pando April 14.  Following the meeting, Caputo said 
he did not envision a "magic" quick fix to the 
opposition/government political standoff.  Caputo said there 
is a lack of "will, flexibility, and understanding of 
reality" to turn a "spirit of conversation" on both sides 
into a "concrete" dialogue.  Caputo made similar statements 
following an April 15 meeting with President Evo Morales. 
Caputo also met with Foreign Minister Choquehuanca.  Caputo 
previously visited Bolivia April 2 to lay the groundwork for 
possible OAS facilitation/mediation between the opposition 
and government (ref a). 
 
Opposition Steadfast: No Dialogue Before May 4 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶3. (U) Speaking on behalf of the prefects, Tarija Prefect 
Mario Cassio characterized the meeting as "positive" and 
affirmed the prefects' will to negotiate, but warned 
Bolivians to manage their expectations.  "These are problems 
that have accumulated during many years and will not be 
resolved overnight."  Cassio confirmed the prefects' refusal 
to suspend May-June autonomy referendums in their respective 
departments, starting with Santa Cruz Department's May 4 
autonomy referendum, as a condition for negotiation.  Cassio 
said prefects agreed with Caputo on three focus areas for 
future dialogue: national unity, democracy, and avoidance of 
violence.  The opposition prefects and their department's 
civic committees issued a proclamation April 15 denouncing 
the government for fomenting a land redistribution 
confrontation in the Chaco region of Santa Cruz Department as 
means to distract and discredit the autonomy referendums. 
 
¶4. (U) Jorge Tuto Quiroga, leader of the opposition PODEMOS 
party, bluntly discounted mediation by international 
organizations and neighboring countries and challenged their 
neutrality as "friends" of President Evo Morales.  He 
repeated April 14 his position that any international 
mediation be coordinated with and subordinate to the efforts 
of the Catholic Church.  (Note: The Catholic Church issued a 
statement last week saying the "situation is deteriorating 
dangerously" and the "radical sectors" were making a dialogue 
difficult.  End Note.)  Quiroga said international efforts in 
conjunction with Church efforts could be positive, but that 
the government had orchestrated visits by foreign delegations 
only to "validate government abuses." 
 
¶5. (C) President of the Confederation of Businesses Gabriel 
Dabdoub, who is a leading figure in the Santa Cruz 
opposition, met with the Ambassador April 11.  Dabdoub was 
highly critical of the Brazilian effort to help promote a 
dialogue, characterizing it as too biased towards the 
government.  On the OAS effort, Dabdoub said the prefects 
would always meet to discuss ways to jump-start the dialogue 
because "we can ill afford to be seen as not wanting 
dialogue" -- that said, nothing can be expected to 
materialize before May 14.  In fact, according to Dabdoub, 
the opposition sees the government's efforts to bring in 
international actors as a desperate attempt to prevent the 
referendum or delegitimize it.  Dabdoub was vehement that the 
Santa Cruz referendum would go forward as scheduled, noting 
that no Cruceno politician could "stop the will" of the 
people at this point.  He commented that the Santa Cruz 
leadership appreciated the Ambassador's "quiet" approach in 
recent weeks, particularly in the face of continued attacks 
by the Bolivian government.  Dabdoub was critical of the 
government's duplicitous approach, pretending to want 
dialogue while taking actions like the cooking oil export 
ban, which he viewed as a purely political action aimed at 
crippling one prominent leader in the Santa Cruz opposition, 
who is in the cooking oil business. 
 
¶6. (C) Opposition Congressman Peter Maldonado (UN-La Paz) 
told PolOff the Media Luna will pass autonomy referenda, it 
is now just a matter for the Bolivian government to decide 
"if it get's off of the tracks or wants to try and confront 
the train."  He claimed government exploration of third-party 
negotiators was "for show" and a sign of their desperation. 
Echoing common opposition opinions, Maldonado did not rule 
out a future role for international mediators, but he 
discounted the current cast of possible facilitators as 
non-starters: the Church for perceived opposition 
"oligarchic" leaning, the OAS for perceived pro-government 
leaning, and neighboring states for both a pro-government 
bias and vested interests in Bolivian gas supplies.  Out of 
concern the both government and opposition leaders were not 
proposing realistic options for dialogue, Maldonado and three 
other young opposition deputies proposed a long-term dialogue 
among 19 government, prefect, and congressional leaders to 
hash out a compromise by the end of 2009, delaying prefect 
elections a year to coincide with federal elections in 2010. 
 
Government Urgency for Pre-May 4 Dialogue 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (U) Despite their recent attempts to hype the May 4's vote 
as "insignificant," government leaders seemed to 
contradictorily give it credence by insisting dialogue occur 
before the vote.  "After the fourth we can't negotiate 
decisions already made.  It will be complicated to make 
modifications afterwards," said Garcia Linera.  Vice Minister 
of Government Coordination Hector Arce added that "it doesn't 
make sense to talk after the May 4 consultation."  Arce also 
railed that Crucenos were being deceived to vote for autonomy 
statutes that only 15 percent of them are familiar with. 
(Note: Arce failed to mention that the same Captura and 
Consulting poll tracks 90 percent of Crucenos participating 
in the vote and 75 percent of Crucenos voting in favor of the 
referendum.  End Note.) 
 
¶8. (U) The government's strategy of the moment appears to be 
to downplay a hard-line by either official forces or 
government supporters to May 4 in favor of a kinder, gentler 
posture allowing the May 4 referendum to take place, while 
attacking its legality and legitimacy.  Throughout the 
weekend, government officials from President Morales on down 
have discounted the significance of the referendum and called 
for national unity marches on May 4 in all nine department 
capitals to counter the Santa Cruz autonomy vote.  Vice 
President Alvaro Garcia Linera characterized the referendum 
as a "very expensive poll" that the national government will 
ignore as illegal and unrecognized by the National Electoral 
Court. 
 
EU, CAN Newest Members of International Mediation Hit Parade 
--------------------------------------------- --------------- 
 
¶9. (U) Adding to efforts already underway by the Catholic 
Church, OAS, and the nascent "friends group (refs)," the 
European Union and Andean Community offered to help mediate 
Bolivia's political crisis last week.  CAN Secretary General 
Freddy Ehlers confirmed April 13 CAN's offer to help with 
"whatever action" is needed in support of international or 
church mediation efforts, following an April 11 CAN statement 
expressing concern for Bolivian's political situation and 
asking both sides to respect constitutional norms. 
 
¶10. (U) The EU's April 11 statement welcomed Church and 
international efforts to "restore political dialogue," 
emphasized respect for institutions and rule of law, and 
urged "parties concerned" to take undefined steps "to defuse 
the current tension and enable a genuine national dialogue to 
be held, without preconditions."  The statement further 
offered the EU to "help effect rapprochement" to reach an 
agreement on "constitutional reform and departmental 
autonomy."  Local press stressed that, including many 
candidate and associate EU members, the statement represents 
41 countries.  FM Choquehuanca said publicly that he was 
considering inviting a EU delegation to mediate, but that 
such an invitation would depend on the outcome of a report 
from a combined Argentine/Brazilian/Colombian delegation 
visit April 3-5 exploring mediation options.  Santa Cruz 
Civic Committee Vice President Luis Nunez rejected the EU 
statement and international declarations in general as 
outside interference, adding what the Civic Committee is 
concerned with "what the people of Santa Cruz have to say," 
not the EU. 
 
Japan, Paraguay Join International Concern Crescendo 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
¶11. (C) On April 9, Japan issued a statement of concern 
regarding the political crisis, particularly the autonomy 
standoff in Santa Cruz, and urged both sides to resolve 
disputes through dialogue.  (Comment: Although relatively 
tame in language, this is a significant development as Japan 
rarely issues such statements.  The statement reflects 
pronounced concern on the part of our contacts in the 
Japanese diplomatic corps for Japanese citizens and 
expatriates in Santa Cruz.  End Comment.)  Paraguayan Vice 
President Luis Alberto Castigliani chimed in his concern for 
the Bolivian political crisis April 13, adding a nod to the 
opposition's "legitimate" demands for autonomy. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶12. (C) The recent flurry of international statements of 
concern and offers to mediate Bolivia's tense political 
stalemate are welcome, particularly from the EU, although 
these overtures would have been more useful much earlier on. 
In any event, no number of international delegations, whether 
OAS, EU, UN, or CAN, is going to stop the May 4 Santa Cruz 
referendum.  As the OAS and opposition prefects stated, any 
negotiated dialogue will be a long-term affair.  We remain 
skeptical that mediation can occur before May 4.  The 
government seems more interested in maintaining the 
appearance of international legitimacy than in pursuing 
genuine dialogue.  The government has implied tacit 
endorsement from visiting delegations, explaining their 
encouragement of the recent whirlwind of international 
actors.  FM Choquehuanca made public that the had asked for 
statements from abroad, including the United States, a clear 
sign that the government hopes international concern will 
amount to pressure on the prefects to call off their autonomy 
referendenda  A peculiar incident last week illustrates the 
point: Government officials took offhanded and unauthorized 
comments from Rodolfo Stavenhagen, a part-time relator for 
the UN Inspector of the Rights of Indigenous People, that the 
Santa Cruz referendum is unconstitutional, unilateral, and 
illegal as the official position of the UN and immediately 
cited these comments in their public campaign against the 
referendum.  End Comment. 
GOLDBERG