VZCZCXRO0963
PP RUEHGR
DE RUEHKG #0364/01 1201558
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 291558Z APR 08
FM AMEMBASSY KINGSTON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6254
INFO RUCNCOM/EC CARICOM COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUMIAAA/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 KINGSTON 000364 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
WHA/CAR FOR JTILGHMAN 
TREASURY FOR SARA GRAY 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR SOCI ECON EFIN JM XL
SUBJECT: JAMAICA: APRIL POLITICAL ROUND-UP 
 
REF: A. KINGSTON 310 
 
     ¶B. KINGSTON 328 
     ¶C. KINGSTON 354 
     ¶D. KINGSTON 245 
 
Summary 
--------- 
 
¶1. (SBU) It's budget time in Jamaica, and presentations on 
the budget from both parties in Parliament dominated the 
media this month.  The only story bigger than the first new 
JLP budget in over 18 years is the ongoing saga of dual 
nationals serving in Parliament.  The first test case was 
completed in the Supreme Court; however the petitioner has 
expressed a desire to appeal part of the ruling and the 
Supreme Court Justice granted a 42 day stay.  Other news in 
April included the failure of the biggest alternative 
investment scheme "Cash Plus", and the return to Parliament 
of an embattled Member. 
 
By-Election or General Election ? 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Since the initial decision in the first case against 
dual-nationals serving in Parliament has come out, it appears 
almost certain that another election will be held; but it 
remains unclear whether this will be a by-election (as 
ordered by the court) or, possibly, a snap general election 
called by the Prime Minister.  While the case is being 
appealed by the petitioner, Abe Dabdoub of the People's 
National Party (PNP), based on the legal decision delivered 
by Supreme Court Justice Zaila McCalla, it seems unlikely 
that the Court of Appeals will overturn the judgment (Ref A). 
 In the meantime, the appealing of the case has led to a stay 
of the court's decision and thus Daryl Vaz of the Jamaica 
Labour Party (JLP) is to retain his seat in Parliament for 
the next 42 days.  The PNP maintains that since the 
nomination of Vaz has been nullified, the votes cast for him 
should not count and the runner-up should be declared the 
winner. 
 
¶3. (SBU) In a recent conversation with a PNP caretaker, 
Poloff has learned that many young people concur with the 
PNP's point of view on the matter of giving the seat to the 
runner up.  Many young men compare the race for Parliament 
like a race in track and field, in which, if the winner is 
disqualified, the second place finisher is automatically 
elevated for the gold.  While this may not be sound legal 
reasoning, it does illustrate the thinking of many people. 
However, since the case has come to light, Vaz has received 
increased media attention and it appears that the citizens of 
West Portland are much enamored with their current Member of 
Parliament (MP).  Since he has now begun the process to 
renounce U.S. Citizenship, he plans to run in any by-election 
or general election for the same seat. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Once the issues of the Vaz case work their way 
through the judicial system, the other cases filed against 
sitting MPs will come before the court.  While at least one 
of the cases appears likely to be thrown out on a procedural 
ground pertaining to how and when the subpoena was served, 
there are still at least two more cases filed against sitting 
JLP MPs that could also end up in by-elections.  Also, one 
member of the Opposition PNP, Ian Hayles, has admitted that 
he did not complete the renunciation process until after the 
election; although no election petition has been filed 
against him.  Some members of the current government estimate 
that as many as ten MPs may possess dual citizenship and have 
violated the Jamaican Constitution's prohibition against 
swearing an allegiance to a foreign power.  Therefore given 
the current weakness of the PNP, the scandals that have 
wracked its public image, and the narrow majority of the 
ruling-JLP in Parliament (32-28), a snap general election 
must seem inviting to Prime Minister Bruce Golding (PM 
Golding). 
 
¶5. (SBU) Recent media reports are suggesting the possibility 
of a compromise on the disputed seats held by dual nationals. 
 The suggestion is that the PNP could agree not to contest 
the by-elections in the seats that were won by JLP 
candidates, such as Daryl Vaz; and in return the JLP would 
agree to not hold a snap election in the immediate future. 
Currently, both sides are considering the issue, but it is 
likely that some members on both sides welcome the prospect 
of a new election.  Some recent accounts in the media 
speculate that former Minister of National Security Peter 
Phillips and his supporters welcome the prospect of a fresh 
election prior to the September hosting of the annual PNP 
 
KINGSTON 00000364  002 OF 004 
 
 
convention.  The idea is that if the JLP solidify their 
majority in a fresh election, it will be seen as a third 
strike against current Opposition Leader Portia 
Simpson-Miller, and allow Phillips to supplant her as party 
leader. 
 
University Professor Sees Apathy Among Young Voters 
-------------------------------------- ------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) Poloff met with Dr. Ian Boxill, professor of Social 
Science at the University of the West Indies (UWI) in 
Kingston.  Dr. Boxill stated that the students and youth of 
today are much more apathetic about politics than 10 or 20 
years ago.  Most university students show little preference 
for either party and take a very pragmatic approach to 
politics.  Whereas previous generations tended to vote in 
line with their parents, and were very likely to participate 
in active politics or the political youth organizations, 
today's youth are not very inclined to vote, and the 
political parties' youth organizations are only visible 
around election time.  He also said that many of today's 
students distrust politicians and do not see any reason to 
support politics.  Professor Boxill predicted that if snap 
elections are called, voter turn-out will be very low, and 
only the party faithful will turn out in high numbers.  He 
also stated that with a low turn-out, the government is not 
assured of significantly improved results at the ballot box. 
 
Minister of National Security Out of Sight 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Minister of National Security, Derrick Smith, was 
not seen or heard from for over two weeks.  He was having 
surgery on his foot, and there has been speculation that this 
is related to diabetes.  However, some PNP insiders are 
questioning the severity of the injury and whether the 
government is being completely open with the public.  They 
find it unusual that for such a minor procedure the 
government went so far as to appoint another Minister of 
Cabinet as Acting Minister of National Security.  However, 
Smith was back in Parliament for the final round of budget 
debates, so whatever his illness it does not appear life 
threatening. 
 
Failed Cash Plus Scheme and Political Fund Raising 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
¶8. (SBU) The failure of the alternative investment scheme 
known as &Cash Plus8 has dominated the media during April 
(Ref B).  From the arrest of founder Carlos Hill, and his 
American Citizen Brother Bertram Hill and CFO Peter Wilson on 
the morning of April 10, it was clear the scheme had hit rock 
bottom.  General Secretary of the PNP, Peter Bunting, during 
his Opposition Budget presentation requested the JLP 
Government to investigate alternative investment schemes. 
Bunting was quoted in the Dailey Observer saying, &I believe 
it would be appropriate to enquire into the operations of 
alternative investment schemes.  Let us see how much of the 
public's money these schemes gave to political parties.8 
The initial reaction of the JLP came from Industry and 
Commerce Minister, Karl Samuda, who indicated the government 
was not planning to release the names of financial supporters 
of the party to the public, but already had complied with all 
campaign finance laws.   (Comment: While it is likely at 
least some members of the JLP benefited from schemes such as 
Cash Plus, it is just as likely a good number of the PNP 
members benefited as well.  Since Cash Plus came into 
existence in 2002, the previous government turned a blind eye 
to it and other such schemes for years.  However, it is 
possible Bunting knows who among the PNP are most likely to 
be named and is hoping to gain advantage within the party. 
End Comment) 
 
Budget Debate Dominates Political Scene 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶9. (U) The month of April has been dominated by the annual 
budget debate in Parliament.  From its initial release on 
March 29, the entire political arena has been focused on the 
first budget proposal of the new JLP government (Ref C). 
Former Minister of Finance Omar Davies opened the 
Opposition's response, but aside from suggesting some targets 
for tax collection may be unrealistic, he was not seen 
scoring many points.  Opposition Leader, Portia 
Simpson-Miller (PSM), was also a bit restrained in her 
responses, although she tried to take credit for starting 
some of the current initiatives of the JLP government, 
including free health care.  General Secretary Bunting on the 
 
KINGSTON 00000364  003 OF 004 
 
 
other hand, took the government to task on the issue of free 
health care and education, saying: &I subscribe to a 
philosophy of personal responsibility.8  He further stated, 
&When a good or service is totally free, it tends not to be 
appreciated and is used most inefficiently.8  (Comment: The 
difference of opinion between these two top leaders of the 
PNP is reflective of the widening factionalism within the 
party.  Bunting represents the new movement of youth within 
the party, whereas Simpson-Miller represents the old guard 
that is becoming synonymous with corruption and being out of 
touch with reality.  End Comment.) 
 
¶10. (U) The Prime Minister addressed Parliament on April 22 
for his inaugural budget presentation.  He announced that the 
government had granted casino gaming licenses to two new 
resorts being constructed on the North coast.  He also spent 
a large part of his speech addressing the two big concerns of 
food security and energy prices.  He announced a new drive to 
conserve energy and outlined relief measures for the poor to 
aid in the cost of food (Ref C). 
 
Debate on Past Government Bail Out of Financial Sector Heats 
Up 
-------------------------------- 
------------------------------- 
 
¶11. (SBU) Minister of Finance Audley Shaw recently announced 
an official government review of the financial sector bailout 
of the 1990s, when the Financial Sector Adjustment Company 
(FINSAC) was created to bail out failing financial 
institutions.  This led to a heated debate in Parliament 
between Shaw and former Minister of Finance Omar Davies, with 
the later suggesting that the former should recuse himself 
from any involvement in the matter.  Davies went on to claim 
that at least four current cabinet members of the present 
administration, including Shaw, had had their bad loans 
acquired by FINSAC because of failure to service bad debts. 
Davies was striking back against earlier accusations by Shaw 
that inappropriate financial decisions during the former PNP 
administration had led to the melt down of the sector and 
created the need for the FINSAC relief which nearly destroyed 
the economy of Jamaica. 
 
¶12. (SBU) During his presentation in Parliament when 
announcing the details of the investigation into FINSAC, Shaw 
created a large commotion when he accused current PNP General 
Secretary Peter Bunting of receiving a "sweetheart deal" from 
 
SIPDIS 
the government when he was CEO of Dehring, Bunting and 
Golding (DBG), a major investment firm.  He alleged that the 
previous government had sold receivables from the sale of 
National Commercial Bank (NCB) to AIC and other debts at a 
huge discount and the DBG served as an intermediary in many 
FINSAC transactions, allowing a the company to book record 
earnings at the expense of failed companies.  Bunting lashed 
out at Shaw, and told Shaw to "Say it again!" and meet him 
outside to settle the issue, where he would not enjoy 
parliamentary immunity.  Bunting called the accusations 
"cowardly and underhanded" and declared there was nothing 
secret or unethical in any of the deals mentioned by Shaw. 
 
SIPDIS 
(Comment: While there is a likelihood that many shady deals 
were struck during the FINSAC crises and that the government 
did not handle the bail out well, Shaw is wasting efforts on 
an issue that should be left to lie.  By seeking to re-open 
old wounds, he is embarking on a possible witch hunt which 
could sully the reputations of members of both parties and 
further damage the economic confidence of investors.  End 
Comment.) 
 
Embattled MP Returns to Parliament 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶13. (U) Kern Spencer, embattled PNP MP for St Elizabeth North 
East, returned to Parliament on April 16.  Spencer had 
previously requested a leave of absence from the Speaker of 
the House after his high profile arrest for fraud in 
connection with his direction of the distribution of  free, 
light bulbs donated by Cuba (Ref D).  The former Junior 
Energy Minister spent three nights in jail and faces multiple 
charges, including conspiracy to defraud, money laundering, 
and breaches of the Corruption Prevention Act.  Kern 
maintains he has no plans to resign from his seat in 
Parliament and continues to represent the people of his 
district. 
 
Conclusions 
------------- 
 
¶14. (SBU) The formal budget debate was wrapped up with the 
 
KINGSTON 00000364  004 OF 004 
 
 
Prime Minister's presentation on April 22.  Talk of budget, 
taxes, and rising food prices are dominating the media and 
local conversations.  The appeal of the Vaz case will likely 
give an indication of how the other pending cases will play 
out.  If Dabdoub is handed the West Portland seat by the 
Court of Appeals, then there is a good chance for unrest in 
that district, and such a decision would give the JLP a good 
justification for calling a snap election.  In his strongest 
indication of his stance on elections yet, Golding has stated 
to the media that he will not allow anyone to serve in 
Parliament by legal technicality who was not elected by the 
people.  The Cash Plus case will likely take a long time to 
settle, but the police provide updates almost daily in the 
press.  Whether the names of all Cash Plus beneficiaries, 
including politicians and political parties, will ever come 
to light is unclear.  However, with so many ordinary 
investors losing money through the alternative investment 
scheme, it is unlikely that accusations of politicians being 
involved would draw any great public outcry. 
HEG