VZCZCXRO6589
PP RUEHROV
DE RUEHKH #0566/01 1050404
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 140404Z APR 08 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0541
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KHARTOUM 000566 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/SPG, S/CRS, S/E WILLIAMSON 
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KPKO KDEM SOCI AU UNSC SU
SUBJECT: SURPRISE CENSUS DELAY BY SPLM EXPOSES INTERNAL FISSURES 
 
REFS: A. KHARTOUM 562 
¶B. KHARTOUM 547 
¶C. KHARTOUM 493 
¶D. KHARTOUM 477 
¶E. KHARTOUM 473 
 
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SUMMARY 
-------- 
¶1. (SBU) Just one day after GoSS President Salva Kiir Mayardit 
publicly supported the upcoming national census and urged all 
Southern Sudanese to participate in it, the GoSS Council of 
Ministers, led by Kiir, voted to unilaterally "postpone" the census 
in Southern Sudan.  GoSS officials cited a lack of funding, 
security, the unresolved issue of border demarcation, the inability 
of some IDPs to return to Southern Sudan, and the absence of 
questions on ethnicity and religion on the census forms as the 
biggest issues warranting a postponement. A dismayed international 
community is vigorously attempting to convince the GoSS to reverse 
its decision, but senior GoSS officials have indicated that a 
reversal is not likely.  End Summary. 
 
-------------------- 
AN UNWISE DECISION 
-------------------- 
¶2. (SBU) Over the past two months, some SPLM officials such as GoSS 
Vice President Riek Machar and GoSS Minister for Agriculture Samson 
Kwaje, have called for the South's boycott of the census, 
specifically over the exclusion of questions on religion and 
ethnicity on the census questionnaires.  At the same time, other 
SPLM officials, such as GoSS President Salva Kiir Mayardit, GNU FM 
Deng Alor and GoSS Minister for Presidential Affairs Luka Biong 
Deng, publicly supported the census going forward despite minor 
obstacles related to funding, form shortages, and questions on 
religion and ethnicity. 
 
¶3. (U) In an extended GoSS Council of Ministers Meeting in Juba on 
11-12 April, GoSS ministers voted to postpone the census in the 
South.  This decision came less than 24 hours after GoSS President 
Salva Kiir publicly encouraged Southerners to participate in the 
census and asked churches to preach a message of census 
participation on Sunday, 13 April.  SPLM officials cited the 
following reasons for postponement: exclusion of questions on 
ethnicity and religion on census questionnaires, inadequate security 
and NCP incitement in multiple locations such as Malakal, Jonglei, 
Bentiu, Warap, Lakes, Equatoria and Abyei (although Abyei is 
technically not in the south, yet, per the CPA), the alleged 
blocking of IDP returnees to the South by the SAF, and the start of 
the rains (refs B, C, D). 
 
¶4. (U) GNU President Omar al-Bashir publicly slammed the SPLM for 
its decision on 12 April.  Press reports indicate that the Director 
of the Central Bureau of Statistics, Dr. Yasin Abdeen, will meet 
with the Population Census Council in the next two days in Khartoum 
to discuss whether the North will proceed with the census given the 
South's extra-constitutional pull-out. 
 
---------------------- 
ESTIMATING THE DAMAGE 
---------------------- 
¶5. (SBU) Upon learning that the GoSS Council of Ministers had voted 
to postpone the census in the South, Chairman Isaiah Chol Aruai of 
the Southern Sudan Commission for the Census, Statistics, and 
Evaluation (SSCCSE) was "devastated."  O 12 April, the Chairman 
wrote letters to the governors and statistical directors of the 
southern states asking for them to call back all enumerators (all 
11,000 of them) and census material. This message has already 
reached the state level and enumerators have begun to return to 
their homes. 
 
¶6. (U) On 12 April, UNFPA staff in Juba hurriedly put together a 
brief report on the technical and financial implications of 
postponing the census in the South. To date, the GNU, the GoSS and 
donors have spent approximately USD 68.8 million on preparation for 
the census in the South.  Multi-Donor Trust Fund (MDTF) resources 
were entirely committed to procurement, delivery and distribution of 
questionnaires and enumerator training.  Some GNU funds were already 
paid out to census enumerators upon deployment.  A significant 
portion of GoSS funds were used for advocacy.  If the census is 
delayed in the South and goes forward in the North, the bulk of 
those resources would be wasted as a national census would not be 
possible.  While maps produced for the census will be useful for 
other purposes, most pre-enumeration products do not serve other 
purposes.  If the North and South agreed on a new census date 
without changing the questionnaire, current questionnaires and 
training materials could be re-used as they do not reference 
enumeration dates. 
 
KHARTOUM 00000566  002 OF 003 
 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
DARFUR REBEL LEADERS SUPPORT THE SPLM'S DECISION 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
¶7. (U) SLA leader Abdel Wahid al-Nur and JEM spokesman Ahmed Hussein 
Adam have applauded the SPLM's decision to postpone the census.  SLM 
leader Minni Minnawi has also spoken out previously against the 
census (septel).  This comes as no surprise, as the region's largest 
rebel movements have never been in support of conducting the census 
this April and are capitalizing on the South's move to justify their 
own reasons for postponing the event.  These reasons include 
widespread displacement, the fear that third-country Arabs will be 
counted as Darfurians, insecurity, and the belief that a political 
solution to Darfur must come before a census or elections (refs d 
and e). 
 
-------------- 
DONORS REACT 
-------------- 
¶8. (SBU) On 12 April in Juba, CG Datta called together the 
international donor community to develop a joint donor statement on 
the GoSS decision to delay the census.  The community supported 
presenting a unified front to the GoSS on this issue and requested a 
meeting with GoSS President Salva Kiir to express concern about 
census postponement in the South and to plead with the GoSS to 
reverse its decision.  Donors demarched GoSS Minister for 
Presidential Affairs Luka Biong Deng and GoSS Undersecretary in the 
Ministry of Regional Affairs Dr. Cirino Hiteng Ofuho on 12 April. 
They expressed concern that the GoSS decision could have negative 
impacts for the implementation of the CPA and urged the GoSS to move 
forward with the census despite present challenges.  Donors 
emphasized the large amount of financial, logistical, and human 
resources invested by the international community in the Southern 
Sudan census effort and expressed concern that these efforts would 
be futile if the census is postponed.  They further warned that this 
delay played squarely into the NCP's hands, handing them the 
opportunity to cast the SPLM as the party that first abrogated a 
major CPA milestone.  The Norwegians specifically warned the 
Minister that this decision might also discourage donors from 
attending the upcoming Donors Consortium planned to be held soon in 
Oslo.  Minister Biong Deng was somber and stated that he understood 
the donors' position and said he would speak with Kiir to see if a 
meeting could be arranged.  Biong Deng requested a joint statement, 
which donors provided to him. 
 
¶9. (SBU) CG Juba spoke with Minister Luka Biong Deng again on 13 
April.  Minister Biong Deng said that at the Council of Ministers 
meeting he argued forcefully for going forward with the census, but 
was outvoted.  He confessed that he knew that the USG/joint donor 
position was the right one, but he believes the decision will not be 
reversed. 
 
¶10. (SBU) In an ambassadorial dinner on 12 April, AEC Chairman Derek 
Plumbly and SRSG Qazi said that they had both spoken with Salva Kiir 
in the past 72 hours and had been assured by him of the GoSS' 
unenthusiastic, but real participation in the census. CDA Fernandez 
urged both to provide "a graceful way out for the SPLM to back out 
of this political mistake", if they are willing to do so. Both CDA 
Fernandez and SRSG Qazi spoke to Presidential Advisor Mustafa Othman 
Ismail to urge a relatively measured, low-key response by the NCP to 
the GOSS decision. The NCP's public criticism after a late-night 
emergency meeting was relatively muted. On 13 April, the EC is 
convening an ambassadorial-level discussion on the census with SRSG 
Ashraf Qazi to determine how to influence the GoSS to reverse its 
decision, while the Assessment and Evaluation Commission (AEC) will 
also be mobilized. 
 
-------- 
COMMENT 
-------- 
¶11. (SBU) The GoSS' bombshell decision to "postpone" the census in 
the South just three days before the nation-wide census makes it 
appear as though the SPLM is abrogating its commitment to the CPA, 
and effectively surrenders the moral high ground to the NCP.  The 
SPLM's move plays squarely into the NCP's hands.  The NCP is already 
claiming that it is ready and willing to implement this key CPA 
benchmark. The blame for its nation-wide failure will rest with the 
SPLM. It is even more embarrassing coming just one day after FVP 
Salva Kiir's call for widespread southern participation in the 
census. 
 
¶12. (SBU) The GoSS' decision also shows that the SPLM suffers from 
deep internal fissures among high-ranking party leadership which 
threaten the ability of the party to be an effective player against 
the NCP.  The SPLM's constant waffling over whether to boycott or 
not, President Kiir's statement encouraging all Southerners to 
participate, and the GoSS Council of Minister's vote immediately 
 
KHARTOUM 00000566  003 OF 003 
 
 
following to delay the census raises questions about both Kiir's 
leadership of the party on critical issues and internal intrigue 
between the party's "unionists" and "separatists". Generally, SPLM 
leaders in the GNU seemed to have been more positive about the 
census than those in the GOSS. We have already seen similar 
flip-flops in SPLM strategy on the electoral law, which has 
complicated its passage. 
 
¶13. (SBU) While we can understand that the SPLM is nervous about a 
census result showing less than thirty percent of Sudan's population 
in the South, and the possible implications this would have for 
their strength vis-`-vis the NCP before and after elections, a 
calculation to deviate from the CPA by postponing the census is even 
riskier, as it undermines the path of full CPA implementation - 
which is the surest path to protecting southern interests. It also 
plays into the hands of an NCP happy to see international attention 
diverted to the missteps of its rival. 
 
FERNANDEZ