VZCZCXRO4471
OO RUEHROV
DE RUEHKH #0519/01 0970850
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 060850Z APR 08
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0444
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000519 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR SE WILLIAMSON AND AF/SPG 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL SOCI SU UG
SUBJECT: GOSS MINISTER KWAJE ON ABYEI BORDER COMPROMISE, LRA TALKS, 
AND POSSIBLE CENSUS BOYCOTT 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: On the evening of April 1, CG Datta was invited to 
a GoSS dinner in honor of the visiting South African Foreign 
Minister.  At that dinner, Datta had a long discussion with Samson 
Kwaje, GoSS Minister of Agriculture and prominent player in the 
SPLM, that touched on an NCP offer on the Abeyi border demarcation, 
the census, the state of negotiations with the LRA and the CPA 
Assessment and Evaluation Commission (AEC).  End summary. 
 
Abyei Border Offer a "Poor Deal" 
------------------------------- 
¶2. (SBU) CG Datta mentioned to Kwaje that he had heard that a 
compromise on Abyei border demarcation might be near at hand, with 
the NCP conceding a more northerly line, closer to where the GoSS 
thinks it ought to be.  The reported deal would separate the land 
and oil issues by allowing the North to continue to benefit from oil 
revenues produced south of this border line.  The Minister responded 
that such an offer had indeed been made and that while the SPLM is 
studying it, he expected the SPLM to turn it down. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Kwaje said the offer does bring the Abyei demarcation 
close to where the SPLM thinks it should be, but on either side of 
Abyei it shaves off considerable segments of Southern territory for 
the North that contain large mineral resources.  The South would 
never give those areas up simply to get what already belongs to it 
by right in Abyei.  It is a poor deal, he concluded.  (NOTE: As 
reported septel, the NCP tabled for SPLM consideration a re-drawing 
of Abyei's north-eastern border that excludes the oil-rich areas 
surrounding Heglig. END NOTE) 
 
Doubts About LRA Peace Deal 
--------------------------- 
¶4. (SBU) Kwaje, who has been active in the LRA peace negotiations, 
then expressed his extreme frustration with the latest delays by LRA 
leader Joseph Kony in signing the peace agreement.  Originally 
scheduled to take place in Rikwangba on April 3, Kony said he could 
not make it until sometime around April 10.  Kwaje expressed anger 
at Kony's continued delaying tactics, indicating for the first time 
to CG Datta his doubts that Kony will sign at all.  "He doesn't 
trust Museveni or the UN," said Kwaje, "and I think he fears he will 
be arrested or assassinated in Rikwanmba."  The Sudanese, he said, 
still hoped for an agreement, but are beginning to fear the peace 
talks will collapse. 
 
GoSS Census Boycott? 
-------------------- 
¶5. (SBU) On the subject of the approaching national census, Kwaje 
expressed the view that the GoSS will stage a boycott over the 
absence of questions on ethnicity and religion.  CG Datta advised 
that such a boycott this late in the game would be ill advised, and 
would allow the NCP to effectively blame the collapse of the process 
on the SPLM.  The international community, he said, would have a 
difficult time understanding the reason for such a boycott, and it 
would damage the SPLM's reputation, especially since the SPLM had 
originally agreed to the removal of the questions and the 
international community knows that. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) The Minister responded that while that might well be true, 
the question of religion and ethnicity had been at the heart of the 
long civil war between the North and South.  Kwaje said that the NCP 
always had justified its oppression of the South on the basis of the 
alleged Arab/Muslim identity of Sudan, in which the South felt it 
had no part.  If the census fails to settle once and for all whether 
or not Sudan is a predominantly Arab country, it has no value for 
the SPLM.  (Comment:  The issue obviously touched deep emotional 
chords in Kwaje, and no amount of persuasion by CG Datta concerning 
the damage a census boycott would do to the SPLM in international 
public opinion or to the CPA was able to convince him otherwise. 
End comment.) 
 
The SPLM and the AEC 
-------------------- 
¶7. (SBU) Finally, CG Datta urged that the GoSS do a better job of 
staffing the CPA's Assessment and Evaluation Commission (AEC), where 
they are being ill served by a lack of experienced and qualified 
personnel to represent their interests.  This lack of engagement is 
creating a poor image for the SPLM among the international community 
represented on the AEC.  The Kenyan Ambassador, who was 
participating in the conversation and who sits on the AEC, agreed 
with CG Datta, stating that the GoSS representatives are ill 
prepared and usually have nothing to contribute at meetings. 
Minister Kwaje expressed surprise at this news and said he would 
raise the issued with senior SPLM leadership. 
 
Comment 
------- 
¶8. (SBU) Minister Kwaje was no more pessimistic than normal about 
the intentions of the NCP.  The anticipated SPLM rejection of the 
 
KHARTOUM 00000519  002 OF 002 
 
 
proposed agreement on Abyei is disappointing, though to be expected. 
 The NCP improved its offer on Abyei in this latest round of 
negotiations (septel) but the SPLM obviously believes it can get an 
even better deal by holding out.  As Kwaje's views are widely held 
in the SPLM, we can expect to see continued confrontation between 
the North and South in the coming months, especially over Abyei. 
 
FERNANDEZ