VZCZCXRO0235
PP RUEHGI RUEHMA RUEHROV
DE RUEHKH #0481/01 0921525
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 011525Z APR 08
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0362
INFO RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHRN/USMISSION UN ROME

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000481 
 
SIPDIS 
 
AIDAC 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF/SPG, PRM, AND ALSO PASS USAID/W 
USAID FOR DCHA SUDAN TEAM, AFR/SP 
NAIROBI FOR USAID/DCHA/OFDA, USAID/REDSO, AND FAS 
GENEVA FOR NKYLOH 
NAIROBI FOR SFO 
NSC FOR PMARCHAM, MMAGAN, AND BPITTMAN 
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU 
USUN FOR FSHANKS 
BRUSSELS FOR PBROWN 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: EAID PREF PGOV PHUM SOCI UN SU
SUBJECT: SUDAN - SURGE IN RETURNS EXPECTED PRIOR TO CENSUS 
 
KHARTOUM 00000481  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
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Summary 
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¶1. In a March 27 meeting in Khartoum, a UN Mission in Sudan Returns, 
Reintegration, and Recovery (UNMIS RRR) official identified a new 
and potentially troubling trend of return convoys organized by the 
Government of Southern Sudan (GOSS).  According to UNMIS RRR, the 
first GOSS-organized movement began on March 15 and has transported 
an estimated 10,000 internally displaced persons (IDPs) from 
northern states to Southern Sudan.  UNMIS RRR expects the GOSS to 
continue these types of movements leading up to the census in 
mid-April.  UNMIS RRR noted that the level of voluntariness of the 
IDPs returning home in the GOSS-organized convoys cannot be 
accurately determined because the GOSS has not shared convoy 
departure dates or destinations with the UN return organizations. 
The UN is working to encourage the GOSS to coordinate the movements 
with returns agencies in order to facilitate provision of 
appropriate assistance, including food rations and other relief 
items, at arrival areas.  End Summary. 
 
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NEW TREND: GOSS-ORGANIZED RETURN CONVOYS 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. In recent weeks, the UN has learned that the GOSS has initiated 
its own operation to return IDPs from northern states to Southern 
Sudan prior to the census.  According to UNMIS RRR, the GOSS has 
resources for the return operation, has tendered transportation 
bids, and conducted its own registration of IDPs.  The GOSS has 
decided to fund its returns program through the 10 states and not 
centrally through the Southern Sudan Relief and Rehabilitation 
Commission (SSRRC).  The decentralized approach exacerbates problems 
in linking with UN and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) because 
the GOSS has 10 separate points of management instead of one central 
focal point that could easily link to existing coordination 
mechanisms.  Beginning on March 15, the GOSS convoys began 
transporting IDPs home and have moved an estimated 10,000 IDPs to 
date.  UNMIS RRR expects that this trend will continue until 
mid-April. 
 
¶3. While the international community understands the GOSS' urgency 
to bring people home before the census, the recent surge in returns 
of this sort raises concerns over potential use of coercive tactics 
and misinformation on support that IDPs will receive upon return. 
An additional concern for the international community is that the 
IDPs will be dropped off in towns in Southern Sudan without 
resources or provided with assistance to travel to their home 
villages.  UNMIS RRR stated that a major concern over these convoys 
is the potential for "backflow" of returnees, who decide to return 
to the north because their expectations are not met upon arrival or 
because their livelihood options are minimal.  From 2004 to 2007, 
the returns operation has only recorded a minimal level of backflow 
to Khartoum and oternorthern areas and aid agencies hope to 
maintain this positive record. 
 
¶4. In response, UNMIS RRR has activated tracking posts at Kosti, 
White Nile State, to operate 24 hours a day.  The increased tracking 
at Kosti will help the UN to count the nighttime convoy movements 
passing through this strategic point en route to Southern Sudan. 
The UN is strongly urging the GOSS to share information on convoy 
departure times, routes, and destinations with the agencies 
coordinating returns. 
 
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STATUS OF RETURNS TO DATE 
------------------------- 
 
¶5.  UNMIS RRR also presented an overview of the returns trends from 
2004 to 2007.  As of the end of December 2007, nearly 2 million IDPs 
and refugees had returned to Southern Sudan and the Three Areas.  Of 
this total, an estimated 19 percent, or nearly 390,000 IDPs, 
returned to the Three Areas during this time period, with 290,000 
going to Southern Kordofan State, 60,000 going to Abyei, and 32,800 
going to Blue Nile State.  In Southern Sudan, 1.6 million people 
returned to the region, with Northern Bahr el Ghazal recorded as the 
state with the highest total returns. 
 
¶6.  TRENDS IN THE SOUTH:  Most of the 1.6 million returnees to the 
south arrived in 2004 and 2005 without assistance from the 
international community.  During this time, an estimated 90 percent 
 
KHARTOUM 00000481  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
of all IDPs went home spontaneously, and an estimated 54 percent of 
refugees also returned spontaneously. According to UNMIS RRR, 
Northern Bahr el Ghazal received the most returnees largely due to 
the push factor of the Darfur conflict, which prompted displaced 
populations in Darfur from Northern Bahr el Ghazal to return quicker 
than populations in other areas of displacement. 
 
¶7. TRENDS IN THE THREE AREAS:  In 2006, Southern Kordofan State saw 
a dramatic increase in return levels and currently is the state with 
the second highest returnee numbers.  The UNMIS RRR official 
commented that many IDPs from Southern Kordofan gained confidence in 
the security situation, road accessibility, and other factors as 
many communities returned to Southern Sudan and sent positive 
accounts back to communities remaining in areas of displacement. 
Blue Nile State has received the least amount of returnees since 
¶2004. 
 
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HOW MANY MORE WILL RETURN? 
-------------------------- 
 
¶8. In March 2005, the Joint Assessment Mission (JAM) estimated that 
a total of 4.5 million Sudanese had been displaced from the Three 
Areas and the South.  UNMIS RRR estimated that more than 1.8 million 
have returned, that 1.2 million will choose not to return and will 
integrate into the communities where they have been displaced, and 
that 1 million people still plan to return to Southern Sudan and the 
Three Areas.  UNMIS RRR noted that the estimate that 1.2 million 
people will locally integrate in areas of displacement both in the 
north and south is politically sensitive for the GOSS, which wishes 
all southerners to return to the region.  UNMIS RRR predicts that 
organized returns numbers, particularly the GOSS-sponsored returns 
operations, will spike prior to the census, elections, and 
referendum.  Spontaneous returns are likely to remain steady over 
the course of the next year. 
 
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COMMENTS 
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¶9.  The new trend of GOSS-organized returns operations that are 
organized outside of existing coordination mechanisms are cause for 
concern among humanitarian agencies.  The USG will encourage GOSS 
counterparts to share information with the UN agencies on departure 
dates, routes, and destinations in order to best assist those 
arriving in Southern Sudan and the Three Areas.  Further, we should 
request that the GOSS allow return experts from UNMIS RRR and the 
International Organization for Migration to observe the returns 
registration and selection process to ensure that all travelers are 
returning voluntarily and protection risks are minimized. 
 
¶10. We will continue to monitor this issue and liaise with NGOs in 
areas that have received GOSS-organized returnees to assess 
population needs and assistance provided. 
 
¶11. Looking at the UNMIS RRR numbers, we are two-thirds of the way 
through an enormous and complicated return operation.  However, the 
remaining 1 million returnees that Southern Sudan and the Three 
Areas can expect to receive in the coming years will continue to 
necessitate a significant humanitarian presence.  USAID, other 
donors, and implementing partners will need to continue to balance 
provision of humanitarian assistance as they simultaneously move 
towards early recovery and longer-term development activities.  At 
the meeting, a UN World Food Program official told the group that it 
takes an average of five years for a returnee family to rebuild 
household and livelihood assets to levels equal with host 
communities.  In Sudan, we still have a long road ahead. 
 
FERNANDEZ