VZCZCXRO6946
OO RUEHBI RUEHCI
DE RUEHKT #0417/01 1051142
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 141142Z APR 08
FM AMEMBASSY KATHMANDU
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8321
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING PRIORITY 6425
RUEHLM/AMEMBASSY COLOMBO PRIORITY 6742
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RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD PRIORITY 4778
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RUEHBI/AMCONSUL MUMBAI PRIORITY 3826
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RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 3155

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 000417 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PTER KDEM NP
SUBJECT: NEPAL'S CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY ELECTION: MAOISTS 
MAINTAIN LEAD AS RESULTS COME IN 
 
REF: KATHMANDU 408 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1.  (SBU) The Maoists continue to build a strong lead in day 
four of counting results from the April 10 Constituent 
Assembly election.  Ninety-eight locations in 21 
constituencies will repoll, potentially affecting still 
unknown proportional representation results.  At least one 
observer and close Embassy contact is skeptical about 
generally glowing reviews the international community gave 
election day; a growing number of accounts of voter 
manipulation by the Maoists have emerged.  The Communist 
Party of Nepal - United Marxist Leninist (UML) appears to be 
taking the Maoist victories hardest; following the 
resignation of General Secretary M.K. Nepal (reftel), the UML 
politburo decided that the party would resign from the 
government.  Home Minister Krishna Sitaula (Nepali Congress) 
and the chairman of the largest so-called "royalist" parties 
are among the most recent losers. 
 
Maoists Retain Lead in First-Past-the-Post 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶2.  (U) As of noon on April 14, with 71 percent of the 
first-past-the-post counting completed, the Communist Party 
of Nepal - Maoist has won 91 of 164 declared seats.  The 
Nepali Congress is trailing with 27 declared seats, the UML 
with 23, and the Madhesi People's Rights Forum (MPRF) with 
¶15.  Seventeen of the 19 women elected are Maoists; the other 
two are from the Nepali Congress and the MPRF.  Many of the 
winning Maoist candidates who have defeated NC and UML 
stalwarts are relatively young, little-known personalities. 
The average age of all winning candidates is 44. 
 
Repolling 
--------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Ninety-eight locations in 21 constituencies will 
hold repolling in the coming days, according to Election 
Commission spokesman Laxman Bhattarai.  Peter Erben, IFES 
country director, told the Ambassador on April 14 that 
repolling is likely to display a different voting pattern 
than occurred on April 10 because voters have already seen 
nationwide results.  Erben said redoing individual polling 
locations is unlikely to affect first-past-the-post standings 
but could alter the number of seats a party receives in 
proportional representation.  Erben also noted it was too 
soon for proportional representation results to emerge, as 
less than one percent of the ballots had been counted. 
 
Observer Skeptical About Maoist Appeal 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Dominic Cardy, country director of the National 
Democratic Institute, told the Ambassador on April 14 that he 
was increasingly concerned that rosy reports from the 
international community regarding an election free of major 
violations were inaccurate.  Accounts of voter manipulation 
in the hills and mountains continue to surface.  Maoists 
engaged in booth capturing, forcing opposition candidates 
into house arrest, and intimidating supporters of other 
parties.  Cardy, a severe critic of the Maoists, conceded 
that, although the Maoists placed pressure on the middle 
class and business community, Maoist wins in Kathmandu and 
the Terai probably reflected the people's will.  He added 
that the Maoists lacked the organization to coerce voters in 
the Terai. 
 
Major Contests 
-------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) The UML:  Almost all politburo and Central 
Committee members have lost their constituencies mostly to 
Maoists, including former Foreign Minister and Deputy Prime 
 
KATHMANDU 00000417  002 OF 002 
 
 
Minister K.P. Oli in Jhapa-7 and former Home Minister Bamdev 
Gautam in Bardiya-1.  The UML politburo decided on April 13 
that the party would pull out of the current government and 
not join the next one.  Acting General Secretary Amrit Kumar 
Bohara, citing his party's electoral defeat, told reporters 
that the UML was responding to the mandate of the people and 
withdrawing from the government on moral grounds.  Bohara 
said all UML ministers plan to collectively submit their 
resignations when they return to Kathmandu from their 
constituencies.  (Note:  The UML holds the Ministries of 
Foreign Affairs; Education and Sports; Culture, Tourism, and 
Civil Aviation; Agriculture and Cooperatives; and General 
Administration.  End note.) 
 
- Nepali Congress:  Home Minister Krishna Prasad Sitaula lost 
to Purna Prasad Rajbansi, a Maoist, in Jhapa-3. 
 
- Rastriya Prajatantra Party:  Chairman Pashupati Sumsher 
Rana lost to Maoist candidates in both Sindhupalchowk-1 and 
-3. 
 
- Terai Madhes Democratic Party (TMDP):  Hridayesh Tripathi, 
former Minister of Industry, Commerce and Supplies, won in 
Nawalparasi-6. 
POWELL