VZCZCXRO8618
OO RUEHIK RUEHPW RUEHYG
DE RUEHBUL #0877/01 1011338
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 101338Z APR 08
FM AMEMBASSY KABUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3543
INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/OSD WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHMFIUU/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KABUL 000877 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR SCA/FO, SCA/A, S/CRS 
STATE PASS TO USAID FOR AID/ANE, AID/DCHA/DG 
NSC FOR JWOOD 
OSD FOR SHIVERS 
CG CJTF-82, POLAD, JICCENT 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KDEM PGOV AF
SUBJECT: POLITICAL AGREEMENT REACHED ON SEPARATE ELECTION 
CALENDAR; FOCUS TURNS TO PREPARATION AND FUNDING 
 
REF: KABUL 498 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary.  The prolonged political debate 
between Parliament and the Palace ended this week with 
an agreement to hold separate Presidential (in 2009) and 
Parliamentary (in 2010) elections using a Single Non- 
Transferable Voting (SNTV) system for the parliamentary 
elections.  President Karzai agreed to the separate 
election calendar advocated by Parliament (and United 
Front) in return for Speaker Qanooni and other 
Parliament leaders giving up their call for a system of 
proportional representation (PR).  The Independent 
Election Commission (IEC) issued a statement on April 9 
confirming the decision on the election calendar. 
Parliament continues to debate the electoral law, which 
will formalize the agreement on the election system, but 
the political agreement allows the government and 
international community to begin detailed planning, 
including identifying funding sources.  SRSG Kai Eide 
told us he is meeting with Karzai and will reinforce our 
messages on the need for presidential decrees to spur 
the IEC, ministries, and donors into action.  Addressing 
funding gaps and lack of leadership and capacity at the 
IEC must be priorities if the first elections run by 
Afghans themselves are to take place on time and be a 
success.  UNAMA is attempting to draft a timeline for 
key decisions as a means of helping Karzai and the GoA 
to focus on decisions.  End Summary. 
 
Karzai and Qanooni Craft a Compromise 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) A series of meetings over the past month 
including the Palace, Parliamentary leadership, and 
other senior Afghan politicians, produced agreement 
that there will be separate elections, with Presidential 
and Provincial Council elections in autumn 2009 and 
Parliamentary and District Council elections in summer 
¶2010.  This calendar is consistent with the constitution 
and Wolesi Jirga Speaker Qanooni's preferred outcome. 
(His position reflects his interest in being able to run 
for president without risk of forfeiting his seat in the 
Wolesi Jirga.)  In return, Qanooni (representing the 
United Front as much as parliament) gave up his demand 
for at least some seats being allocated by means of 
proportional representation (PR).  While parliament is 
still debating the electoral law, it is understood that 
Qanooni has agreed it will call for all seats being 
allocated by means of SNTV (single non-transferable 
vote). Candidates will be able to list their party 
affiliation with their name, but all votes will be 
cast for individuals, not party lists. 
 
Lower House Debates the New Election Law 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) The Wolesi Jirga (Lower House) debate over the 
draft electoral law will continue until all 70 articles 
have been discussed.  Each article and issue provides an 
opportunity for contentious debate.  Progress stalled on 
April 9 over an article that will determine whether 
Koochis (nomads) should be allowed to cast their ballots 
in any province or only in those where they are 
concentrated.  The Lower House also engaged in a lengthy 
debate over the ballot counting methodology, which is 
technically outside their purview.  (When, how, and 
where ballots are counted will be an IEC decision, but 
parliamentarians who cite reports of fraud in the 
counting process during the last elections, are 
determined to make their view known.)  Agreement on the 
election calendar removes a major disincentive for 
finalizing the election law, but debate in the Wolesi 
Jirga (Upper House) is expected to continue for at least 
a week.  The bill then goes to the Meshrano Jirga for 
review before going to the President for signature. 
 
Planning for Voter Registration Behind Schedule 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
KABUL 00000877  002 OF 003 
 
 
 
¶4. (SBU) There must be a new voter registration, 
regardless of the election system adopted.  According to 
draft timelines, the registration process should take 
place during the summer of 2008 and last two months, 
with the possibility of another round to catch any 
missing registrants prior to the 2010 Parliamentary 
elections.  The plan is to have voters register and vote 
at the same polling center of the 7000 to be established 
across the country. 
 
¶5.  (SBU)  UNDP, through the ELECT program, is providing 
technical assistance to the IEC as it develops a 
registration plan and budget, but the process is well 
behind schedule due to a lack of IEC capacity and 
presidential guidance.  GardaWorld, a private security 
firm funded by USAID, is conducting a voter registration 
operations and logistics assessment across Afghanistan. 
Their report, due by mid-April, will help guide 
decisions by the IEC on  implementation of voter 
registration.  The IEC is planning to establish a voter 
registration operations center (VROC) at the IEC, and 
possibly a voter registration security center at the 
National Police Command Center.  The MoD, MoI, NDS, 
ISAF, and CSTC-A have agreed in theory to staff these 
centers, however they say they need the yet to be 
completed IEC operational plan to determine the 
appropriate level of support.  COMISAF has made clear 
that ANSF will be responsible for security for voter 
registration and elections, and ISAF will provide 'in 
extremis' support only. 
 
Significant Funding Gap will Need to be Filled 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶6.  (SBU) While the U.S. anticipates funding a 
significant share of the costs of registration and 
elections, other donors will need to provide the 
additional $279 million needed to cover the balance of 
the estimated $480 million cost of registration and 
elections, including security.  At this time, only the 
U.S., the UK, and Canada have pledged support.  USAID is 
likely to increase their initial contribution for voter 
registration by $50 million for a total of $65 million, 
and anticipates contributing approximately $136 million 
for the elections themselves (for a total U.S. 
contribution of $201 million).  Canada and the UK have 
pledged approximately $4 million and 1 million pounds 
respectively for voter registration.  The IEC has still 
not produced a preliminary budget which would help focus 
other donors on the need to identify resources to fill 
the funding gap. 
 
IEC: More Responsibilities than Leadership or Capacity 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) Weak leadership and capacity at the IEC 
contribute to slow progress on key electoral projects, 
including budget preparation, registration planning, 
voter education, and training.  The commission, 
independent in name only, receives direction from the 
Palace, but only limited financial, managerial, or 
political support.  All planning documents must pass 
through the board of commissioners before being released 
and enacted.  The terms of the board members expired in 
January, and while the incumbents remain in place, they 
are essentially placeholders.  The Chairman is ill and, 
even when healthy, largely ineffective.  President 
Karzai may be more likely to name the new Commission now 
that there is agreement on the calendar and law.  In the 
meantime, the IEC staff lacks direction, lacks direction 
or drive. 
 
International Support to Afghan Elections 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) International engagement on the elections issue 
has lagged, but Kai Eide has quickly focused on the 
 
KABUL 00000877  003 OF 003 
 
 
issue.  We reviewed for him on April 8 the challenges, 
our timeline and what we and UNAMA elections experts 
agree is the estimated budget to be funded.  (He was 
visibly surprised by the $480 million figure.)  He 
welcomed the input, saying he would be meeting with 
President Karzai on the issues within days and planned 
to use the timeline to underline the importance of 
prompt decisions and action to achieve the goal of 
successful Afghan-run elections.  Eide said he 
would highlight the funding issue as well and flag the 
Paris Conference as the critical point for garnering 
the resources that will be needed.  These messages 
track with those we have delivered to the Palace, 
to key parliamentarians, and to the IEC. 
 
¶9. (SBU) UNDP is developing a comprehensive funding 
document for distribution to donors.  Several 
donors say they expect some Afghan financial 
contribution to voter registration and elections. 
Current cost estimates, based in large part on the 
2004/2005 elections, are however roughly twice the 
Afghan national budget.  Thus any Afghan contribution 
will be symbolic and not lessen substantially the 
need for donor support.  The May JCMB meetings and 
June Paris Conference will be critical opportunities 
to rally donors to fund roughly half of the budget. 
DELL