VZCZCXRO9656
RR RUEHBW RUEHIK RUEHPOD RUEHPW RUEHYG
DE RUEHBUL #1051/01 1191257
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 281257Z APR 08
FM AMEMBASSY KABUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3718
INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE
RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE
RUEKJCS/OSD WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
RHMFIUU/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEHRC/USDA FAS WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 001051 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/FO SCA/A, S/CRS, EUR/RPM 
NSC FOR WOOD 
OSD FOR SHIVERS 
CENTCOM FOR CG CSTC-A, CG CJTF-101 POLAD 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAGR EAID EFIN PGOV AF
SUBJECT: The Wheat Crop in Nuristan - A Tough Row to Hoe 
 
¶1.  Summary:  As wheat matures on the terraces of lower Nuristan, 
some provincial residents are concerned that the crop will not meet 
their expectations.  With the price of a 50-kg bag of flour reaching 
3000 Afghanis (USD 60) in the interior of the province, people are 
scrambling to make ends meet.  Residents are not aware of global 
trends and blame rising local prices on events at the Pakistan 
border.  The good news is that some basic improvements in 
agricultural methods can help the situation in the medium-term: more 
efficient irrigation, improved seed, targeted sowing methods and 
pesticides. 
 
Concerns Belie Apparent Abundance 
--------------------------------- 
¶2.  The terraces of lower Nuristan are lush with a maturing crop of 
winter wheat.  Residents fear, however, that the upcoming harvest 
will not last until the next crop, and they will have to obtain 
flour through the cash economy.  Prices have fluctuated over the 
past few months.  Near FOB Kala Gush, a 50-kg bag of wheat flour has 
been selling in the market for between 1260 to 1960 Afghanis (USD 26 
to 41) since January.  Deeper into Nuristan, however, prices now 
reach upwards of 3000 Afghanis.  As the Nurgram District Agriculture 
Director told the PRT, "I make 200 Afghani a month, so even I can't 
afford to buy flour."  Most residents will barter or borrow wheat 
from neighbors who have more, while some will turn to the few 
relatively wealthy people in the area to borrow money.  While this 
year's move away from poppy cultivation will help increase local 
wheat supplies, there could be pressure to plant poppy next year to 
earn money to buy flour.  In the meantime, people will depend more 
on their livestock, which forage on whatever vegetation is within 
reach. 
 
¶3.  Local theories on the reason for higher wheat prices do not 
touch on global issues.  Elders from Waigal District told the PRT 
they had not heard about the rise in global food prices.  Instead, 
the local view extends as far as the Pakistan border.  Even there, 
Nuristanis see transitory reasons for price spikes:  they have cited 
the closure of Torkham Gate during the Pakistani elections, road 
closures due to weather, instability in Pakistan, or a Pakistani 
policy of punishing Afghanistan by restricting cross-border wheat 
exports. 
 
A Pound of Cure 
--------------- 
¶4.  Locals understand with more precision that they can expand 
production with better agricultural methods.  Nurgram farmers use 25 
to 30 kg of seed per jerib (one jerib is approximately one-half an 
acre).  This yields about 840 kg of wheat -- rather disappointing in 
a region that has year-round sources of water.  In the hills of 
Do-Ab District, yields are less than half that amount.  The good 
news is that some basic, low-cost improvements can help. 
 
-- Water: The distribution of water has long been among the most 
important matters of local governance in Nuristan.  The 
rehabilitation and development of irrigation canals is a recurring 
request to the local government (and to the PRT).  However, there is 
also a need for more efficient use of water.  Farmers flood their 
terraces two or three times each month.  Better water storage 
facilities and a more precise application of water to the crops 
could help address water shortages. 
 
-- Seed:  Locals plant with seed from the prior year's crop.  This 
means seed quality declines over the course of many years.  Access 
to improved seed could deliver returns in one season.  However, 
according to the Do-Ab District Sub-Governor, Qari Daoud, NGO 
distribution of improved seeds has not worked well in the past.  In 
some cases, the people who received the seed used it to make bread 
to sell.  In others, the seed was not suitable for local conditions, 
and failed to ripen.  The Sub-Governor recommended a more careful 
use of seed on demonstration farms, with management by the 
government. 
 
-- Sowing:  Locals still broadcast seed over the terraces.  Sowing 
in rows would permit both better growth and more efficient water 
usage.  It would also facilitate weeding, a critical element of 
cultivation to improve nutrient uptake of the wheat plant. 
 
-- Plant health:  A red worm has made an appearance locally.  This 
is not yet a major problem, but locals have voiced a need for 
pesticides.  To date, there is no evidence of wheat rust. 
 
KABUL 00001051  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
¶5.  The use of new varieties and methods will not help the situation 
over the next few months.  Progress is possible, but a people used 
to living on the margins of self-sufficiency will still have a tough 
row to hoe. 
 
WOOD