VZCZCXRO6874
OO RUEHBW RUEHIK RUEHPW RUEHYG
DE RUEHBUL #1008 1151235
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 241235Z APR 08
FM AMEMBASSY KABUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3679
INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/OSD WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHMFIUU/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY

UNCLAS KABUL 001008 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR SCA/FO, SCA/A, 
STATE PASS TO USAID FOR AID/ANE, AID/DCHA/DG 
NSC FOR WOOD 
OSD FOR SHIVERS 
CENTCOM FOR CG CJTF-82 POLAD 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL AF
SUBJECT: ETHNIC DISPUTE PROMPTS PROTRACTED PARLIAMENTARY 
WALKOUT 
 
¶1. (U) Summary:  Angry non-Pashtun MPs walked out of the 
National Assembly's lower house April 12, protesting the 
centuries old seasonal Pashtun Kochi migration though the 
Hazarajat and the nomads' 10 reserved parliamentary seats. 
The lower house has not made quorum since, stalling 
consideration of the election law, which would govern lower 
house seat reservations.  House Speaker Qanooni is mediating 
between the two sides.  Even with the presidential elections 
more than a year away, Karzai and the opposition United Front 
are already bidding for ethnic vote blocs, including the 
Hazara, which is in play here.  Competition over the 
Hazarajat's grazing lands last year led to violence between 
sedentary Hazaras and Kochi herdsmen. 
 
¶2. (U) The early spring return of nomadic Pashtun Kochi 
herdsmen to the predominantly Hazara Bihsud district of 
Wardak province sparked protests March 30 by hundreds of 
Hazaras in Kabul.  The angry Hazaras warned they would 
violently resist the centuries old seasonal Kochi migration. 
Afghanistan's grazing land has not recovered from the 
six-year drought that ended a year ago.  The sedentary 
Hazaras, also cattle herders, compete with the Kochis for 
grazing land.  Bihsud was the site of Hazara-Kochi violence 
in July 2007, which reportedly left 11 people dead. 
 
¶3. (SBU) The possibility of renewed Kochi-Hazara violence 
poisoned the April 12 lower house discussion of the already 
contentious election law bill, which would set the date for 
presidential and parliamentary elections and reaffirm the 
reservation for Kochis of 10 lower house seats elected from a 
nation-wide constituency.  Non-Pashtuns resent the 
reservation, which they see as reinforcing Pashtun hegemony. 
The plenary session devolved into ethnic slur-slinging.  Two 
MPs known for their mutual personal animosity traded insults 
in the chamber.  Alam Gul Kochi (Kochi, Khost) claimed Kochis 
are "the only true Afghans."  He derided non-Pashtun Afghans 
as "refugees."  Mohammad Hussain Fahimi (Hazara, Sar-e-Pul), 
in turn, smeared Pashtuns.  In a mistaken effort to advance 
the bill, First Deputy Speaker Mir Wais Yaseni called for a 
separate vote on the Kochi reservation article.  This caused 
90 mostly non-Pashtun members to break quorum by walking out 
of the chamber; they have not returned.  Lower house Speaker 
Qanooni has launched a mediation effort that seeks to lure 
the striking MPs back by temporarily removing the election 
law bill from the docket. 
 
¶4. (SBU) The dispute presents the opposition United Front 
with an opportunity to secure the Hazara ethnic voting bloc, 
which comprised 10 percent of the 2004 electorate.  According 
to the exclusively Hazara Wahdat Party's foreign relations 
advisor, Abdul Ali Azad, Qanooni is exploiting his mediation 
effort to forge an alliance with Hazaras by emphasizing 
Karzai's failure to protect their lands from Kochi 
"incursions."  MPs Engineer Mohammad Asim (Tajik, Baghlan) 
and Shakar Kargar (Uzbek, Jawzjan) contend Karzai is 
disadvantaged in his bid for the Hazaras because he is 
compelled to reinforce his core Pashtun support by backing 
the Kochis. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Comment:  Karzai confronts a dilemma.  He needs to 
shore up his Pashtun base; supporting the Kochi lower house 
seat reservation serves that end.  At the same time, he would 
dearly love to win the Hazara vote.  That emerging bloc, 
coupled with the 40 percent of the electorate who are 
Pashtun, might give him the majority he needs to win the 
presidential election in the first round.  So far, he has not 
asserted a profile in this inter-ethnic dispute.  He may have 
to do so soon to prevent the Hazaras from inclining towards a 
United Front that has made an early dramatic bid for their 
support. 
WOOD