VZCZCXRO5193
RR RUEHLH RUEHPW
DE RUEHIL #1643/01 1140423
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 230423Z APR 08
FM AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 6624
INFO RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHINGTON DC
RUEHRC/USDA FAS WASHDC 4188
RUMICEA/USCENTCOM INTEL CEN MACDILL AFB FL
RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RUEHKP/AMCONSUL KARACHI 9599
RUEHLH/AMCONSUL LAHORE 5350
RUEHPW/AMCONSUL PESHAWAR 4087

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 001643 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PINR EAGR PK
SUBJECT: PAKISTAN'S LEVEL OF PREPAREDNESS TO RESPOND TO UG99 WHEAT 
FUNGUS (C-TN8-00647) 
 
REF: STATE 38788 
 
¶1. (U) The following is a response to the Department's request for 
information on the Government of Pakistan's (GOP) level of 
preparedness for a possible outbreak of UG99 wheat stem rust. 
 
¶2. (SBU) Summary:  While wheat stem rust is not a new phenomenon in 
Pakistan, UG99 presents a serious challenge to Pakistan's already 
suffering wheat industry.  Pakistan's scientific community clearly 
understands the threat the virus poses to the country's wheat 
production.  There have been no confirmed reports of UG99 in 
Pakistan.   While multiple efforts are currently underway to 
integrate rust-resistant strains into commercial production, 
Pakistan's wheat crops remain vulnerable to infection.  Local 
farmers remain mostly ignorant of the risk that UG99 poses to 
Pakistan's annual wheat production.  End Summary. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Wheat rust is not new to Pakistan.  The country faced its 
first challenge in 1977 when a rust epidemic decimated wheat crops 
and forced the GOP to import over two million tons of wheat to meet 
domestic demand.  Following the 1977-78 outbreak, Pakistan 
established strong linkages with research institutions such as the 
Mexico-based International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center 
(CIMMYT) and the Syria-headquartered International Center for 
Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA).  Pakistani plant 
breeders have been receiving germplasms from these centers for use 
in wheat strain breeding programs. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Pakistan's 2008-09 wheat production is forecast at 21.5 
million metric tons, well below the 23 million metric tons needed to 
meet domestic demand.  The GOP's lack of a coordinated commodity 
policy, water shortages and production overestimates are to blame 
for the discrepancy.  If forecasts prove to be true, the GOP will 
have to import around 1.5 million metric tons of wheat in 2008-09. 
Although the country produced a record 23.5 million metric tons of 
wheat in 2006, cross border trade and smuggling pushed Pakistan's 
wheat stockpile below 22.5 million metric tons, prompting price 
increases and widespread wheat flour shortages. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Despite a good 2007-08 harvest, Pakistan remained in the 
grip of the wheat crisis, importing 1.7 million metric tons.  Due to 
price supports, the cost of wheat in Pakistan is among the cheapest 
in the world, currently trading at USD 252 per metric ton.  The 
relative low price of Pakistani wheat increases the incentive to 
smuggle wheat to neighboring India, Iran and Afghanistan, further 
exacerbating the domestic wheat shortages. 
 
¶6. (SBU) According to a survey conducted by the Pakistan Agriculture 
Research Council (PARC) there is a low overall incidence of wheat 
stem rust and only one suspected case of UG99. The case, reported in 
the wheat producing southern province of Sindh, proved to be a 
domestic strain of wheat rust and not UG99.  Pakistani farmers have 
not reported any unusual crop yield problems or unexplained losses 
this year.  Dr Mujeeb Qazi, Director of Pakistan's National Wheat 
Program, reports that the swift movement of UG99 from Yemen to Iran 
has raised alarm bells among Pakistan's scientific community. 
Pakistani researchers will have to expedite efforts to protect wheat 
productivity over the next crop cycle (2008-09) by introducing 
UG99-resistant wheat strains.  Warning against complacency, Dr. Qazi 
reported that recent testing of Pakistani wheat germplasms indicates 
that Pakistani strains do not currently possess adequate resistance 
to the disease. Recognizing the threat of UG99, PARC and the 
National Wheat Program have called for a national policy to prepare 
for possible outbreaks. 
 
¶7. (SBU) The GOP is currently working with CIMMYT and ICARDA to 
develop biotechnology-enhanced strains with molecular markers and 
haploids to increase crop resistance to wheat rust.  The Pakistan 
Agriculture Research Council (PARC) and the National Wheat Program 
are working on a three-prong strategy to protect Pakistani wheat 
crops from UG99. The first tier involves the introduction of 
high-yield germplasms into commercial wheat strains.  Field tests 
have indicated that these germplasms, provided by CIMMYT, are 
resistant to UG99.  PARC is also utilizing breeding lines from the 
international stem rust screening nursery for integration into 
commercial wheat crops.  Thirdly, agricultural scientists hope to 
identify rust-resistant plant genes and incorporate them into wheat 
strains via traditional plant breeding programs. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Disease surveillance programs are also already underway. 
The GOP has allocated Rs 40 million (USD 645,000) to combat a 
possible outbreak. Funds will be used to upgrade national plant 
disease response capacity through research programs, laboratory 
 
ISLAMABAD 00001643  002 OF 002 
 
 
improvements and increased personnel training. The GOP will also 
establish a wheat rust early warning system and continue to test 
commercial wheat strains. 
 
¶9. (SBU) Despite these efforts, the GOP currently has no plans to 
educate farmers about the dangers of UG99.  Farmers are generally 
unaware of the problem and have not publicly raised concerns about 
the threat the disease poses to Pakistan's annual wheat production. 
 
 
¶10. (SBU) Comment: The risk of a wheat rust infestation couldn't 
come at a worse time for Pakistan.  Even without an outbreak of 
UG99, Pakistan is in the grip of a wheat crisis with unmet demand 
and skyrocketing prices.  The GOP spent over USD 720 million to 
import wheat last year; with budget overruns currently nearing USD 
8.3 billion, the GOP cannot afford to foot an even larger import 
bill this year.  While Pakistan's agricultural scientists are well 
aware of the threat that UG99 poses to domestic crops, farmers are 
woefully unaware of the looming threat.  Efforts to integrate 
rust-resistant wheat strains are a good first step but would provide 
little relief if UG99 arrives in Pakistan in the near future.  End 
Comment. 
 
PATTERSON