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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 HARARE 000345 
 
SIPDIS 
 
AF/S FOR S.HILL 
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU 
ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR B.PITTMAN 
TREASURY FOR J.RALYEA AND T.RAND 
STATE PASS TO USAID FOR L.DOBBINS AND E.LOKEN 
COMMERCE FOR BECKY ERKUL 
CIA WASHDC 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O.12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC PHUM ECON ZI
 
SUBJECT: ZIM NOTES April 17, 2008 
 
------------- 
¶1.  SUMMARY 
------------- 
Topics of the week: 
- Still No Election Results, Court Rebuffs Opposition Demand 
- Post-Election Violence Spreads, One Confirmed Death 
- Scores of Opposition Arrested 
- An Analytic Note On Violence 
- Opposition "Stay-In" a Flop 
- UN Security Council Deliberates Over Zimbabwe 
- USAID, UN, And NGOs Planning For Potential Emergency Response- 
- Court rules in favor of journalists 
- Public Blames ZANU-PF And Sanctions For Dire State Of Economy 
- The Indigenization and Economic Empowerment Bill Apparently In 
Effect 
- Tax Man Backs Down 
- Heavy Industry Down 
- Cotton Season Underway 
- The High Cost of Travel (or of Emigration) 
 
 
------------------------------ 
¶2.  Price Movements-Exchange Rate 
and Selected products 
------------------------------ 
Parallel rate for cash shot to ZW$82million:US$1; bank transfer 
rate: Z$105 million; official rate: ZW$30,000:US$1 
 
Sugar more than doubled to Z$200 million/2kg vs. controlled price of 
Z$8million/2kg 
 
*Cooking oil nearly doubled to Z$200 million/750ml vs. controlled 
price of Z$9.3million/750ml 
 
Petrol and diesel soared to Z$120 million/liter vs. controlled price 
of Z$60,000/liter 
 
----------------------------- 
On the Political/Social Front 
----------------------------- 
¶3.  Still No Election Results, Court Rebuffs Opposition Demand... 
Almost three weeks since elections, the Zimbabwe Electoral 
Commission (ZEC) has yet to release the results of the presidential 
ballot.  In addition, the High Court on April 14 dismissed, with 
costs, an MDC appeal to compel ZEC to release the results.  It also 
deferred a ruling that would put a stop to the ZEC's plans to 
recount results in 23 constituencies - 16 of which the opposition 
had won.  At an April 14 press conference, the MDC reiterated its 
position that it had defeated Mugabe outright and would not 
participate in a runoff nor would it recognize a recount. 
 
¶4.  Post-Election Violence Spreads, One Confirmed Death... 
Opposition parties and human rights groups have reported a massive 
surge in political violence orchestrated by regime insiders, 
including cabinet ministers and senior military and police officers. 
 Soldiers, police, war veterans, and youth militia have been 
deployed primarily, but not exclusively, to rural areas to 
intimidate the electorate and punish opposition supporters ahead of 
an anticipated second round of voting for the presidency.  The 
public has been forced to attend daily ZANU-PF rallies throughout 
Mashonaland East and West, Masvingo, and Manicaland provinces 
(formally ZANU-PF strongholds where the opposition has made 
significant gains) to hear threats of more violence and a return to 
"war" if they do not support Mugabe.  Civil society members, 
particularly those who acted in election observations, are also the 
target of intimidation and violence. 
 
 
HARARE 00000345  002 OF 004 
 
 
Since March 29, a total of 176 victims of post-election violence 
have required medical treatment - including 43 new cases in last 48 
hours. More than 30 of these victims have required hospitalization 
for serious injuries.  Injuries range from deep tissue damage as a 
result of prolonged beatings with blunt objects to fractures and 
abrasions; several of the victims exhibit multiple fractures to the 
hands and arms typical of defensive injuries.  There has been one 
confirmed death of an MDC-Tsvangirai party activist beaten by 
ZANU-PF supporters.  The pattern of attacks and escalating rhetoric 
is similar to campaigns unleashed in 2000 and 2002.  See Harare 
¶331. 
 
As of last weekend, 31 white commercial farmers had been driven off 
their farms since the elections out of 128 farms under varying 
degrees of siege, according to the Commercial Farmers' Union. 
Seventeen of the 31 abandoned farms are located in Centenary in 
Mashonaland Central province. 
 
¶5.  Scores of Opposition Arrested...   Zimbabwe Lawyer for Human 
Rights (ZLRH) reported today that at least 99 opposition members and 
supporters had been arrested or reported missing in the past 48 
hours - most in Harare, but some in the Bindura and Mt. Darwin areas 
as well.  Initial reports indicate that suspected central 
intelligence officers identifying themselves as plain clothes police 
took many of the individuals from their homes.  Family members have 
reported other opposition activists missing.  ZLHR lawyers have been 
camped out at Harare Central police station for the past two days 
trying to identify and gain access to the detainees. 
 
¶6.  An Analytic Note On Violence...  As noted above, violence has 
surged.  We do not see a situation similar to Kenya occurring.  The 
violence is systematic, controlled, and orchestrated at the highest 
levels of ZANU-PF and is targeted against regime opponents.  Unlike 
in Kenya, it is not ethnic in nature and is not spontaneous.  We see 
no evidence of the opposition planning to respond violently; in fact 
the opposition MDC has continued to preach non-violence. 
 
¶7.  Opposition "Stay-In" a Flop... The MDC attempted an organized 
"stay-in," urging regime opponents to stay at home until election 
results were announced.  The action was poorly organized and many 
people were unaware of it.  Even among people who were aware of it, 
there were few supporters; most people are just concerned with 
getting by and finding food on a day to day basis.  Business has 
continued as usual in Harare. 
¶8.  UN Security Council Deliberates Over Zimbabwe... In a summit 
convened on April 16 by the present chair of the UN Security Council 
- South Africa - to discuss how the UN and AU can act to further 
peace and security, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon said, "The 
government and its supporters must desist immediately from violence 
and intimidation, act with restraint, respect human rights, and 
allow the electoral process to continue unfettered."   US Ambassador 
to the UN Zalmay Khalilzad expressed the grave concern of the United 
States about the escalating politically-motivated violence 
perpetrated by security forces and ruling party militias that target 
opposition supporters in rural areas.  Under headlines "Hands off 
Zim, UN told," The Herald reported today that Tanzanian President 
Kikwete assured the summit that "SADC was taking care of the 
situation in Zimbabwe." 
¶9.  USAID, UN, And NGOs Planning For Potential Emergency Response... 
 With violence escalating, humanitarian organizations are readying 
plans for a potential rapid response.  The UN Country Team Crisis 
Group is meeting daily, and the UN Inter-Agency Standing Committee 
(IASC) is meeting weekly.  The IASC Contingency Plan is up-to-date, 
and an Emergency Relief Supply and Capacity Matrix maps out 
humanitarian organizations, resources, and vulnerabilities in the 
country.  Strong partners, including the International Organization 
for Migration, a consortium of NGOs, and the International Committee 
 
HARARE 00000345  003 OF 004 
 
 
of the Red Cross, have in-country and regional support capacity to 
carry out emergency programs should the need arise.  However, their 
field presence is currently limited, reducing access to affected 
populations and information.  Other concerns are lack of Ministry of 
Health capacity, the shortage of essential drugs and health care 
commodities, and inadequate communications networks.  Post will 
continue to monitor developments and provide further updates as they 
become available. See Harare 343 
 
¶10.  Court Rules In Favor Of Journalists...  Harare Magistrate 
Gloria Takundwa this week threw out the case against American 
citizen journalist Barry Bearak of the New York Times and British 
freelance journalist Stephen Bevan.  Both had been arrested two 
weeks ago and accused of practicing journalism without 
accreditation.  Their lawyer, Beatrice Mtetwa, a frequent defender 
of journalists and media rights in Zimbabwe, argued in a pre-trial 
hearing that the case, originally thrown out by the Attorney 
General's office the day after the arrests, had no merit, as 
practicing journalism without accreditation in Zimbabwe is no longer 
illegal under the newly amended Access to Information and Protection 
of Privacy Act (AIPPA).  Furthermore, journalists can only be 
prosecuted on the recommendation of a statutory Media Council which 
has not yet been established.  After prosecutors failed to show up 
to the pre-trail hearing, the Magistrate stated that "the State 
dismally failed to prove" its case.  She also reprimanded police for 
having unlawfully detained the two journalists after the Attorney 
General had ruled there was insufficient evidence for a chargeable 
offense. 
 
¶11.  Public Blames ZANU-PF And Sanctions For Dire State Of 
Economy...  A national survey by the Mass Public Opinion Institute 
in December, 2007 revealed greater pessimism over the state of the 
economy than a year ago and a marked increase in the number of 
respondents blaming ZANU-PF for the decline, especially in rural 
areas.  Urban respondents, on the other hand, blamed "sanctions" 
firstly.  Remittances played a significant role in paying for food 
and healthcare, especially among the aged.  The survey found little 
support for the government's price blitz but a slight majority of 
respondents favored further indigenization of the economy.  See 
Harare 324.  On that note: 
 
-------------------------- 
Economic and Business News 
-------------------------- 
¶12. The Indigenization and Economic Empowerment Bill Apparently In 
Effect...  The Indigenization and Economic Empowerment Bill, which 
was officially published after being signed by President Robert 
Mugabe last month but without implementing regulations, was 
republished today with a statement that it is now in effect.  There 
are still no implementing regulations, but Mugabe can be expected to 
state at tomorrow's independence day celebration that legislation is 
now in effect that will give Zimbabweans control over their 
resources, and he will undoubtedly use this as campaign propaganda 
in a runoff election. 
 
¶13. Tax Man Backs Down...  Following an outcry over punitive new tax 
brackets, the GOZ backed down this week and lowered the tax rate on 
top earners from 60% back down to 47.5%.  In addition, it announced 
that income tax would kick in at Z$1 billion (25% rate) annual 
earnings, not at the Z$300 million threshold that had triggered a 
widespread outcry from labor unions and workers.  The minimum wage 
for most sectors is Z$2.5 billion (roughly US$33 gross pay/month). 
 
¶14. Heavy Industry Down...  Sales volume at Astra Industries Ltd, an 
engineering and construction firm that also manufactures protective 
coatings, paints, and steel parts, declined 34% in the six months to 
end-February 2008 compared to the same period last year.  The steel 
 
HARARE 00000345  004 OF 004 
 
 
division, however, had 15% higher sales volume mainly due to 
GOZ-subsidized farm mechanization projects. 
Apex Corporation of Zimbabwe last week announced plans to open a 
foundry, its core business, in Kitwe, Zambia. CEO George Khumala 
said demand was strong in Zambia and he expected the Zambian 
operation to spur exports to the DRC and Malawi.  Driving the 
decision were the local difficulties in procuring raw materials 
(especially pig iron and coke) and electricity, waning local demand, 
and the challenge of retaining labor in Zimbabwe. Khumala also 
bemoaned the punitive rate of forex retention by the Reserve Bank 
and its stranglehold on the company's own earned foreign exchange. 
 
¶15. Cotton Season Underway...  Premature boll splitting of a 
sizeable portion of the cotton crop has propelled the cotton season 
off to an earlier start than expected, according to Cargill Cotton 
Zimbabwe Managing Director Priscilla Mutembwa.  She said it could 
also result in a reduction in the crop size below the 
300,000-320,000 MT that Cargill had anticipated. Seed cotton 
production was 260,000 MT in 2006 and 270,000 MT in 2007.  Cotton is 
a major forex earner for Zimbabwe. 
 
¶16. The High Cost Of Travel (Or Of Emigration)... The Herald 
reported a jump in the fee for an ordinary adult passport from Z$5 
million to Z$500 million, while a passport processed within three 
working days now costs Z$800 million.  The Registrar General's 
office, however, told an embassy consular assistant who called 
anonymously to confirm the new fees that the cost of an adult 
passport issued within five working was now US$220. 
 
MCGEE