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Viewing cable 08HARARE324, PUBLIC BLAMES ZANU-PF AND SANCTIONS FOR DIRE STATE

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08HARARE324 2008-04-11 11:45 2011-08-24 16:30 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Harare
VZCZCXRO9829
PP RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHSB #0324/01 1021145
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 111145Z APR 08
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2771
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
RUEHUJA/AMEMBASSY ABUJA 1919
RUEHAR/AMEMBASSY ACCRA 1915
RUEHDS/AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA 2038
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 1315
RUEHDK/AMEMBASSY DAKAR 1672
RUEHKM/AMEMBASSY KAMPALA 2094
RUEHNR/AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 4525
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 1170
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC
RHMFISS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC
RUEHC/DEPT OF LABOR WASHDC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC//DHO-7//
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
RUZEJAA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK//DOOC/ECMO/CC/DAO/DOB/DOI//
RUZEHAA/CDR USEUCOM INTEL VAIHINGEN GE//ECJ23-CH/ECJ5M//
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 000324 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
AF/S FOR S. HILL 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR B. PITTMAN 
STATE PASS TO USAID FOR L.DOBBINS AND E.LOKEN 
TREASURY FOR J. RALYEA AND T.RAND 
COMMERCE FOR BECKY ERKUL 
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU 
ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON PGOV ASEC ZI
SUBJECT: PUBLIC BLAMES ZANU-PF AND SANCTIONS FOR DIRE STATE 
OF ECONOMY IN OPINION POLL 
 
 
------- 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
1. (U) The presentation on April 8, 2007 of the results of 
round two of the Mass Public Opinion Institute's (MPOI) 
national survey on "The Zimbabwe Economy and People's 
Survival Strategies," carried out in December 2007, revealed 
greater pessimism over the state of the economy and personal 
levels of economic well being than a year ago.  There was a 
marked increase in the number of respondents blaming ZANU-PF 
for the economic conditions; the ruling party earned foremost 
blame among rural respondents, whereas more urban respondents 
blamed "sanctions" firstly. Remittances as a coping mechanism 
played a significant role in helping people pay for food and 
healthcare, especially among respondents over aged 50.  The 
survey found a dearth of support for the GOZ's price 
crackdown of the past 10 months, but a slight majority of 
respondents favored further indigenization of the economy. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
-------------------------------------- 
The MPOI, Survey Methodology and Scope 
-------------------------------------- 
 
2.  (U) The MPOI is a non-profit, nongovernmental 
organization established and registered in Zimbabwe in 1999. 
Round one of its well regarded survey on "The Zimbabwe 
Economy and People's Survival Methods" was carried out in 
October 2006, followed by round two in December 2007. Econoff 
attended presentation of the preliminary results of round two 
on April 8, 2007. In the survey, MPOI staff interviewed a 
randomly chosen sample of 1,200 people over the age of 18, 
balanced by gender, and from all 10 provinces of Zimbabwe. 
Of the respondents, 68 percent were from rural settings and 
32 percent from urban areas (22 percent of respondents were 
from Harare or Bulawayo). The survey investigated attitudes 
toward the country's economic condition and the respondents' 
own economic situation. It also probed individual survival 
strategies and attitudes toward the price control crackdown 
of the past year and the government's proposed indigenization 
policy.  The results were graphed against findings from the 
2006 survey to illustrate trends. 
 
--------------------------------------- 
Pessimism Over the State of the Economy 
--------------------------------------- 
 
3. (U) In both 2006 and 2007, 89 percent of the respondents 
described Zimbabwe's economic condition as either very bad or 
bad, but the "very bad" rating increased from 51 percent to 
58 percent of those surveyed in the 2007 survey.  Slightly 
more women than men rated the condition as very bad, which 
MPOI staff suggested was a reflection of more men than women 
having entered and benefited from the informal economy. 
Similarly, 86 percent of the respondents said that their own 
economic situation was either very bad or bad in 2007 against 
85 percent in 2006, but again from year to year the "very 
bad" rating jumped from 41 percent to 52 percent.  Broken 
down by place of residence, the responses of urban and rural 
dwellers hardly differed.  Asked how economic conditions 
compared to a year ago, 85 percent responded "much worse," 
compared to 78 percent in 2006.  Perhaps expressing some 
pre-election optimism, 54 percent expected to see the economy 
 
HARARE 00000324  002 OF 003 
 
 
worse or much worse one year from now, compared to 71 percent 
of the respondents in 2006, and 35 percent thought the 
government was capable of solving the most serious problems 
in the next twelve months compared to only 28 percent in 
2006. 
 
4. (U) Illustrative of the dire effect of the price control 
blitz begun in June 2007, 47 percent of respondents in 
December 2007 listed shortages of basic commodities as the 
most serious problem facing the country, whereas unemployment 
ranked first in 2006 when only 8 percent of respondents 
ranked commodity shortages high. 
 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
ZANU-PF Held Responsible, Especially by Rural Dwellers 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
5. (U) Asked what factor was most responsible for the state 
of the economy, 25 percent put the blame on ZANU-PF/GOZ, 22 
percent on "sanctions," and 21 percent on corruption. In 
2006, 32 percent held ZANU-PF/GOZ responsible, 19 percent 
didn't know, and 18 percent blamed corruption, while 
"sanctions" came in only in fifth place at 12 percent. In 
rural areas, 26 percent of respondents held the ZANU-PF/GOZ 
foremost responsible for the state of the economy compared to 
23 percent of urban respondents.  For their part, 26 percent 
of urban respondents blamed "sanctions" foremost, compared to 
19 percent of rural respondents.  Unsurprisingly, only 13 
percent of ZANU-PF sympathizers held the ruling party chiefly 
responsible, whereas 48 percent and 43 percent of 
MDC-Tsvangirai and MDC-Mutambara sympathizers respectively 
blamed ZANU-PF/GOZ.  On government performance in creating 
jobs and in keeping prices stable, over 80 percent of 
respondents called it "bad." 
 
------------------- 
Survival Strategies 
------------------- 
 
6. (U) Asked how they sourced food, farming was the prime 
source for 27 percent of respondents, followed by salaries 
for 22 percent, "projects" (informal economic activity) for 
18 percent, and remittances for 15 percent.  Remittances were 
the prime source of health care funding for 29 percent of 
respondents over the age of 50 and the main source of cash 
for 36 percent of people over 50. 
 
----------------------- 
Reaction to Price Blitz 
----------------------- 
 
7. (SBU) Overall, 79 percent of respondents said they were 
adversely affected by the ongoing price blitz, but the share 
fell to 65 percent among ruling party sympathizers. 
Surprisingly, only 63 percent of respondents said they were 
angry or very angry about the government's price policy, with 
the proportion varying from 52 percent of ZANU-PF supporters 
to 79 percent of MDC-Tsvangirai supporters and 84 percent of 
MDC-Mutambara supporters.  The MPOI presenters assumed, and 
attendees at the presentation concurred, that more ruling 
party supporters had benefited from the crackdown in its 
earliest days through tip offs about raids on shops. 
 
---------------------------------------- 
 
HARARE 00000324  003 OF 003 
 
 
Positive Views on Further Indigenization 
---------------------------------------- 
 
8. (U) Told that the government has proposed extending its 
land reform policy to other sectors, such as mining and 
manufacturing, and that it would require that 51 percent of 
shareholders in companies in these sectors be black 
Zimbabweans, 52 percent of respondents called it a good 
policy and 39 percent were averse.  Broken down by province, 
70 percent of respondents in both Mashonaland East and West 
supported the policy.  By age group, indigenization enjoyed 
the most support (56 percent) among 31-50 year olds. 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
9. (SBU) The high number of rural dwellers who blamed ZANU-PF 
first and foremost for the dire state of the economy in 
December presaged the ruling party's recent stunning loss of 
support among the rural electorate. It is also noteworthy how 
effective the GOZ has been in the past year, at least in 
urban areas where media are available, in convincing people 
that "sanctions" are at the root of Zimbabwe's economic 
problems. Disconcerting in the survey results is the high 
number of respondents who appeared to favor extending 
fast-track land reform to the industrial and commercial 
sectors. 
 
 
 
 
MCGEE