VZCZCXRO6346
OO RUEHAG RUEHDF RUEHLZ
DE RUEHFT #1066/01 0991339
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 081339Z APR 08
FM AMCONSUL FRANKFURT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5653
INFO RUCNFRG/FRG COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 FRANKFURT 001066 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/AGS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL GM
SUBJECT: Hesse Installs CDU Caretaker Government 
 
REF: Frankfurt 0698; Berlin 0265 
 
Sensitive but unclassified; not for internet distribution. 
 
¶1.  SUMMARY: After months of contentious political deadlock, the 
newly-elected Hesse parliament convened April 5 and, as expected, 
failed to elect a government.  As dictated by the state 
constitution, the current CDU cabinet stays on as a caretaker 
government under the leadership of Roland Koch.  This unpopular 
result is of little advantage to the ruling CDU, which will find it 
hard to achieve political objectives.  Without a voting majority in 
the parliament, the way ahead is uncertain for all parties, with 
much speculation on whether the unwieldy system will force a break 
in the deadlock or if the parliament will vote to hold a new 
election.  The Hesse stalemate demonstrates the political upheaval 
caused by the entrance of the Left Party into several western state 
parliaments, making the formation of traditional two-party 
coalitions more difficult.  END SUMMARY. 
 
------------------------- 
NO GOVERNMENT: WHAT NEXT? 
------------------------- 
 
¶2.  Following the January 27 state election, the new Hesse Landtag 
(state parliament) was sworn in April 5.  The Christian Democratic 
Party (CDU) and Social Democratic Party (SPD) each hold forty-two 
seats, while the Free Democratic Party (FDP) has eleven, the Greens 
nine and the newly-elected Left Party six.  No parties were able to 
agree on the formation of a majority coalition in the time since the 
election.  The SPD, most notably, failed to form a controversial 
minority government with the Greens supported by the Left Party when 
one of its own members said she would vote against it.  The current 
all-CDU cabinet under Minister President Roland Koch can 
theoretically stay on as a caretaker government until the next 
scheduled election in 2013. 
 
¶3.  The new arrangement is unprecedented in Germany, as previous 
caretaker governments have typically had a largely reliable voting 
majority to work with, as was the case in Hesse in 1983 with the SPD 
and the Greens.  Koch has said the current situation is less than 
perfect, but has promised to carry out any laws passed by the 
parliament even though the cabinet could, in theory, block 
legislation.  The SPD, Greens and Left Party appear ready to quickly 
pass a law abolishing student higher education fees, which will test 
the cabinet's relationship with the parliament.  On the national 
level, though, the CDU will continue to represent Hesse in the 
Bundesrat, the federal upper house of parliament, weakening the 
SPD's ability to press forward with demands for a national minimum 
wage. 
 
------------------------- 
THE NEXT CAMPAIGN BEGINS? 
------------------------- 
 
¶4.  Koch said last week that he cannot imagine a caretaker 
government lasting more than a year, highlighting the necessity of 
passing a budget this coming autumn as a critical moment that could 
break the deadlock.  After running a harsh campaign against the SPD 
and Greens, the CDU is now attempting to mend fences with the Greens 
to form a so-called "Jamaica" coalition together with the FDP. 
After refusing to shake hands with Green Party leader Tarek al-Wazir 
following a pre-election debate in January, Koch approached al-Wazir 
for a handshake at the parliament's opening session.  The Greens 
remain very skeptical of cooperation with the CDU and will monitor 
closely how the CDU votes on issues important to them -- such as 
equal legal standing for homosexual couples -- to test the CDU's 
claims of good will. 
 
¶5.  Like the CDU, the SPD also has no clear way forward. After 
dissent within the SPD killed an attempt to form a controversial 
minority government with the Greens supported by the Left Party, the 
SPD ruled out a Grand Coalition with the CDU at a party convention 
on March 29.  The majority of the SPD voted to support state Chair 
Andrea Ypsilanti and gave her permission to try to form a minority 
government later in the year.  Juergen Walter, Ypsilanti's more 
conservative intra-party rival, resigned from the party's board at 
the convention in order to distance himself from the SPD 
leadership's leftward leanings.  Revisiting the minority government 
with Left Party support option would likely be unpopular with the 
public and would undoubtedly reignite a firestorm of criticism 
inside the national SPD and further damage national SPD Party 
Chairperson Kurt Beck. 
 
¶6.  An April 5 Emnid poll gave the CDU 37% (unchanged from election 
night), the SPD 30% (down 6.7%), the FDP 12% (up 2.6%), Greens 10% 
(up 2.5%) and the Left 6% (up .9%).  The results, which appear to 
reflect public disenchantment with the SPD's flirtation with the 
Left Party, would most likely translate into a CDU/FDPmajority in 
the event of a new election.  The ne Landtag could decide, by a 
simple majority vote to hold a new election at any time (although 
it emains unclear which parties would support such a roposal). 
 
FRANKFURT 00001066  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
¶7. COMMENT: The caretaker government is unloved by all sides, born 
out of necessity and an inability to reach a compromise.  It faces a 
tough road ahead, risking political stagnation and public 
disenchantment.  The alternatives, however (new elections or a 
breakthrough in coalition talks), are also fraught with risks.  With 
federal elections looming in 2009, the situation in Hesse will have 
national as well as local implications (reftels).   The entry of the 
Left Party into four western state parliaments has changed the 
political landscape.  Traditional two-party coalitions, such as 
those between the CDU and FDP or between the SPD and Greens may not 
muster the numbers needed to govern.  Political leaders from all the 
parties are recalculating their coalition options and leaving the 
door open to new possibilities.  How this plays out in states such 
as Hesse and Hamburg will prove instructive on the national level. 
END COMMENT. 
 
¶8.  This cable was coordinated with Embassy Berlin. 
POWELL