VZCZCXRO5174
OO RUEHLN RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHDBU #0550 1131330
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 221330Z APR 08 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0427
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL 0138
RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD 0111
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 0084
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 0076
RHMFIUU/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC

UNCLAS DUSHANBE 000550 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EEB/TPP/ABT/ATP (SPECK) AND SCA/CEN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAGR EAID ETRD ECON PGOV PREL TI
SUBJECT: RESPONSE: IMPACT OF RISING FOOD/COMMODITY PRICES - 
IS GOD MAD AT TAJIKISTAN? 
 
REF: A. STATE 39410 
     ¶B. DUSHANBE 522 
     ¶C. DUSHANBE 490 
     ¶D. DUSHANBE 219 
     ¶E. 2007 DUSHANBE 1760 
     ¶F. 2007 DUSHANBE 1753 
 
¶1.  The following responds to Ref A's request to provide a 
short summary of the impact of food and agricultural 
commodity price increases and to catalogue previous reporting 
on the subject. 
 
¶2. Rising food prices are having a direct and detrimental 
impact on all of Embassy Dushanbe's central strategic 
objectives: economic growth and development, good governance 
and democracy, and peace and stability.  As reported in Refs 
B through E, Tajikistan is suffering from a complex emergency 
whose central elements include food insecurity, a collapsing 
agricultural sector, financial sector crisis, and quickly 
deteriorating energy infrastructure.  Although Tajikistan is 
not yet a "failed state," its status as the poorest country 
in the former Soviet Union, its history of civil war, and its 
strategic location on the porous northern border of 
Afghanistan mean that we need to consider early interventions 
to address threats to security, including food security. 
The Embassy has recommended in referenced reports, our 
Mission Strategic Plan, and other documents that the PL-480 
Food For Peace program, scheduled to expire after fiscal year 
2008, receive continued funding.  This program has been our 
most effective tool to address emergency and humanitarian 
food needs in the short run and to contribute to longer term 
economic growth, democratic process, and stability in 
Tajikistan's most affected areas.  Post is also working with 
the Department and USAID to develop a proposal for Section 
1210 funding for a complementary community development 
program, and requests favorable consideration. 
 
¶3.  Following is a catalogue of recent Embassy Dushanbe 
reporting on food security and related problems in 
Tajikistan.  The reporting should be read in the context of 
post's Mission Strategic Plan which went through a senior 
interagency review on April 10. 
 
-- Dushanbe 522: Feed the People; Starve Extremism: 
Continuing Needs for Food Aid in Tajikistan; 
-- Dushanbe 490: Tajikistan Cotton Sector Heading for More 
Trouble, as is Banking Sector; 
-- Dushanbe 219: Complex and Chronic -- Tajikistan's Emerging 
Emergency; 
-- 2007 Dushanbe 1760: Rural Tajiks Face Cold and Hunger; 
-- 2007 Dushanbe 1753: Tajikistan Misreported $325 Million in 
Cotton Debt to International Monetary Fund. 
 
¶4.  Since the most recent reporting cable on April 15 (ref 
B), there have been some additional developments.  Early 
reports of a serious locust infestation in southern 
Tajikistan's main agricultural belt have been characterized 
as "the worst in decades" by Food and Agriculture 
Organization officials.  The extent of the damage to Tajik 
crops is not yet known.  The local and regional press has 
carried stories over the past week about a suspension of 
exports of wheat from Kazakhstan.  Wheat is Tajikistan's 
major food staple and since Tajikistan imports approximately 
60% of all wheat consumed from Kazakhstan, such a suspension 
would lead to a sharp decline in food supplies with unknown 
consequences in terms of governance and security.  This 
barrage of bad news, high prices, and scarce food has sparked 
a sense of panic among Tajik consumers, prompting questions 
Qa sense of panic among Tajik consumers, prompting questions 
such as, "Is God mad at Tajikistan?" 
HUSHEK