VZCZCXRO0754
OO RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHBW #0426/01 1201347
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O P 291347Z APR 08
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0229
INFO RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUEHBW/AMEMBASSY BELGRADE 0333

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000426 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KPAO PBTS PGOV PHUM PINR PREL SR
SUBJECT: SERBIA GETS SAA, DEMOCRATS WIN BACK INITIATIVE 
 
REF: A) BELGRADE 414, B) BELGRADE 418 
 
BELGRADE 00000426  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
 
 
¶1. (SBU)  A late-breaking decision by the EU to sign the SAA 
with Serbia boosts President Boris Tadic's Democratic Party 
coalition in advance of May 11 elections.  Deputy Prime Minister 
Bozidar Djelic plans to travel to Luxembourg to sign today 
(April 29).  Foreign Minister Vuk Jeremic benefits politically 
due to his close involvement in the deal.  Prime Minister 
Vojislav Kostunica, now on the defensive, must decide how to 
retaliate against Tadic for proceeding with the signing, which 
Kostunica has called an unconstitutional act.  End Summary. 
 
 
 
BIG BREAK FOR THE DEMOCRATS 
 
--------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶2. (SBU)  A Serbian official will sign the Stabilization and 
Accession Agreement with the EU in a move that will boost the 
Democratic Party (DS) bloc's standing in advance of May 11 
elections.  Following an April 29 decision by the EU Foreign 
Ministers to offer Serbia an SAA, Foreign Ministry Chief of 
Staff confirmed to poloff that Deputy Prime Minister Bozidar 
Djelic (DS) will travel to sign the document in Luxembourg.  An 
advisor in Djelic's office also confirmed to econoff that Djelic 
and several staff members left quickly midday on April 29 for 
Luxembourg.  As a sign of how quickly the agreement emerged, 
just two hours earlier Djelic's staff told econoff that they 
hoped to sign the SAA on April 30 in Brussels.  In interviews 
with local and international media, prior to the noon 
announcement of the GAERC to offer Serbia an SAA signing, 
President Boris Tadic said, if offered the opportunity, Serbia 
would sign because "it is a legal and legitimate decision by the 
government" and the majority of Serbs want it.  Media reports 
confirm that Tadic will also travel to Luxembourg on April 29 to 
attend the signing ceremony. 
 
 
 
JEREMIC'S STOCK INCREASES 
 
------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶3. (SBU)  Foreign Minister Vuk Jeremic (DS) benefits politically 
from this development due to his personal investment in Serbia's 
effort to get an SAA.  In various speeches and media interviews 
(such as in reftel A), Jeremic delineated his extensive case for 
an SAA for Serbia.  He has taken some credit for the offer, 
telling the press on April 29 that he was "very happy that 
[Serbia's] diplomatic and political efforts worked out in the 
end" to produce "a great political moment." In a preview of how 
the DS will market the agreement, Jeremic told the press the 
EU's decision would effectively turn the May 11 elections in 
Serbia into a "referendum on EU membership." 
 
 
 
FRENCH SUPPORT 
 
-------------- 
 
 
 
¶4. (SBU)  French Charge Michel Charbonnier told Charge on April 
29 that French Foreign Minister Kouchner had exerted 
considerable personal energy in getting the Dutch, and also the 
Belgians, not to block the SAA.  According to Charbonnier, the 
Dutch were intent on moving Serbia closer to ratification 
status, by having Serbia cooperate more with the International 
War Crimes Tribunal, but the French argued that the signature 
was enough to indicate intent.  Charbonnier said he considered 
offering Serbia an SAA an EU success.  Charbonnier said he hoped 
that with a signed SAA, DS would have little reason to consider 
another coalition government with Kostunica's DSS. 
 
 
 
KOSTUNICA'S MOVE 
 
BELGRADE 00000426  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
 
---------------- 
 
 
 
¶5. (SBU)  As reported in reftel B, Prime Minister Kostunica and 
his Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) had challenged the 
legitimacy of any Serbian official to sign the SAA.  Kostunica 
repeatedly warned Tadic in press interviews that the signing the 
SAA would violate the Serbian constitution because the EU had 
not clarified its position on whether Kosovo was a part of 
Serbia.  Along with the EU's intent to deploy its mission to 
Kosovo (EULEX), Kostunica said that a new government would have 
to empower a Serbian official to sign an SAA and that Djelic no 
longer had the authority to do so.  Signaling a challenge ahead, 
media reported on April 29 that Kostunica maintained his 
position that the signing of the SAA would be "an anti-state act 
counter to the Constitution." 
 
 
 
POLLSTERS: IT'S UP TO DS SPIN 
 
----------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶6. (SBU)  Pollsters agreed that the SAA signing would help the 
DS bloc but would need "serious" spin efforts to turn the news 
into votes. Marko Blagojevic at the Center for Free Society and 
Democracy (CeSID) told poloff on April 29 that it was 
"impossible to evaluate effects" until next week, but expected 
the DS to benefit directly.  Blagojevic said that the DS could 
win back some "soft" supporters of the Liberal Democratic Party 
(LDP) and possibly end up with more votes than the Radicals 
(SRS).  Milka Puzigaca from SCAN Polling warned that the DS 
needed to counter "voter apathy" now that the SAA was signed. 
Srbobran Brankovic of Medium/Gallup said he expected "minor" 
changes in tracking polls but thought most undecided voters 
would remain undecided.  All pollsters stressed that "DS spin" 
would determine whether Tadic and his bloc would reap political 
benefits from the SAA. 
 
 
 
COMMENT 
 
------- 
 
 
 
¶7. (SBU)  This is a significant victory win for the Democrats, 
especially Tadic and Jeremic.  For the first time since Tadic's 
narrow February reelection, the DS holds the political 
initiative and Kostunica is forced to react.  In February, Tadic 
refused Kostunica's demands (in exchange for DSS support of his 
presidential campaign) to abandon an SAA as long as the EU 
intended to deploy EULEX.  Tadic won reelection helped by this 
show of strength and principle, but Kostunica responded by 
letting the government collapse over the issue.  Now, fuelled by 
a major achievement with Brussels, the DS bloc has the chance to 
portray itself as the only political force able to deliver 
Serbia to the EU, something consistently supported by 80% of 
Serbians in polls.  The extent of the SAA's impact will be 
measured by the Democrats' ability to turn this success into 
votes on May 11 while fending off Kostunica's accusations of 
selling out Kosovo.  End Summary. 
BRUSH