VZCZCXRO9780
PP RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHAN #0325 1191400
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 281400Z APR 08
FM AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1236
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 1006
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORPORATION

UNCLAS ANTANANARIVO 000325 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/E, AF/FO, INR/AA, AND DRL 
PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHER 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EAID PHUM PINR MA
SUBJECT:  TIM SHARES SENATE WITH TOKEN OPPOSITION LEADERS 
 
REFTEL: ANTANANARIVO 305 AND PREVIOUS 
 
¶1. (U) Madagascar's new Senate, reduced from 90 to 33 members, is 
now official.  On April 25, the High Constitutional Court announced 
the names of the 22 senators, one for each of the 22 regions, chosen 
in indirect elections on April 20; all hail from the ruling TIM 
party.  In a surprise move -- reflecting what was generally seen 
here as TIM overshooting its target -- President Ravalomanana chose 
no one officially affiliated with the TIM party in subsequently 
appointing the remaining 11 senators. Political observers in the 
President's camp are calling his nominations a new "policy of 
openness," but critics note that most of the 11 appointed senators 
are still closely aligned with the President.  However, notable 
appointments from the opposition include: Ruffine Tsiranana (head of 
the PSD party and daughter of former President Philbert Tsiranana), 
Johanita Ndahimananjara from the AVI party, Eliane Rosa Naika (one 
of the founders of the dissident wing that split from TIM in 2007), 
and Mousa Tahiry (a former ruling AREMA party deputy and current 
independent). 
 
¶2. (U) As expected, the Ministers of Decentralization and Civil 
Services and Labor both won senatorial seats in the election.  As 
the new Senators cannot occupy both posts concurrently, a cabinet 
shuffle is expected imminently to fill their posts, and possibly to 
shake up several other ministries (REFTELS). 
 
¶3. (U) The 33 senators are expected to choose the new President of 
the Senate on May 13 when Parliament resumes.  While observers 
speculate current Minister of Decentralization Yvan 
Randriasandratriniony is Ravalomanana's favorite to take over the 
senate leadership, 
former President of the Senate Guy Rajemison and newly elected 
Senator Noel Rakotondrambao are also in the running. 
 
¶4. (SBU) COMMENT:  The President's appointment of moderate 
opposition figures will do little to appease hardline opposition 
leaders who call his move a "fake opening." Already, opposition 
Senator Tsiranana has offered to play a moderating role between the 
opposing parties.  While the President's decision to expand his 
nominations beyond the TIM party is laudable, it is a low-risk move 
that puts nothing at stake.  The long election season finally has 
come to a close with TIM firmly in control of the Presidency, most 
municipalities, the new "Regional Councils," the National Assembly, 
and now the Senate. "Now, it is time for development," the President 
asserted in his weekly Sunday evening radio address.  END COMMENT. 
 
MARQUARDT