VZCZCXRO2343
OO RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHGI RUEHJO RUEHMA RUEHMR RUEHPA RUEHRN RUEHTRO
DE RUEHAN #0257/01 0941412
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 031412Z APR 08
FM AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1153
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RHMFIUU/CJTF HOA
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 0997

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 000257 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
ADDIS FOR AMBASSADOR COURVILLE 
DEPT FOR AF/E, AF/FO, INR/AA, AND DRL 
DEPT FOR DS/IP/AF/E RMEDRANO 
PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHER 
PRETORIA FOR POLCOUNS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS KDEM PHUM PINR CN
SUBJECT:  COMOROS QUIET BUT TENSE AS IT PONDERS NEXT STEPS 
 
REF: A) ANTANANARIVO 250 AND PREVIOUS 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Following the swearing in of the Interim President 
of Anjouan (reftel), African Union (AU) and Union Army troops remain 
on alert against potential violence on the island of Anjouan.  The 
mood in the Comoros is quiet but tense as people await France's 
decision regarding the legal treatment of deposed Anjouan leader 
Mohamed Bacar.  Meanwhile, the Comoran Minister of Defense and the 
international community met to discuss "next steps," including the 
timing and composition of island presidential elections on Anjouan 
and inter-Comoran talks to resolve federalism issues.  END SUMMARY. 
 
 
THE COMOROS QUIET BUT TENSE 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶2. (SBU) The mood in the Comoros is quiet but tense as Comorans 
await France's decision regarding the legal treatment of Colonel 
Mohamed Bacar, currently under protective custody in Reunion.  An 
official in the President's office told Post, "If France really 
wants justice to be done then neither the death penalty nor the 
extradition treaty should be the issue."  They explained that only 
three individuals have faced the death penalty since Comoros' 
independence.  Further, French "mercenaries" caught attempting a 
coup in Moheli several years ago were extradited to France upon 
France's request despite the absence of an official extradition 
treaty.  Union President Ahmed Abdallah Sambi has publicly said the 
Government would accept if Bacar and his cronies were handed over to 
an international court, such as Arusha or The Hague, for judgment. 
Discussions between France and the Union Government are ongoing. 
 
THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY PONDERS NEXT STEPS 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶3. (SBU) Meanwhile, in a charged four-hour meeting April 1, the 
Union Government (represented by Minister of Defense Mohamed Bacar 
Dossar) and the international community started to focus on "what 
comes next."  The Union Government would like all rounds of 
elections on Anjouan completed before the end of May, because it 
hopes the International Monetary Fund will consider pardoning 
Comoros' debt at its meeting in June.  Although the Government has 
made no definitive decision whether it will use the candidate list 
from Anjouan's botched June 2007 elections, or open it to newcomers, 
the Minister noted that some government officials are strongly in 
favor of sticking with the original lists in order to expedite the 
new elections -- a position applauded by French Ambassador Christian 
Job.  However, UN Representative Opia Kumah voiced the concern that 
"we may be making trouble for ourselves down the road" by not 
allowing enough time to revise electoral lists to include new voters 
and reopen candidate lists.  In order to ensure elections are 
perceived as free, fair, and credible, he suggested a longer 
timeline (i.e. around June). 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Immediately after elections on Anjouan, the Union 
Government wishes to start an inter-Comoran dialogue between the 
legitimate representatives of each island, state institutions, and 
the National Assembly to address the legal discrepancies regarding 
the division of responsibilities and revenue between the Union and 
Island Governments.  When asked, the Defense Minister said 
consulting civil society may be "useful," although he noted they are 
quite weak and passive in the Comoros.  Dossar explained that 
changing the constitution is not the Government's end goal but 
amendments can be made via the legal steps stipulated within. 
However, he emphasized there are two items that are not up for 
debate: the autonomy of the islands and the rotating presidency 
among the islands.  South Africa and France (via the International 
Organization of the Francophonie) offered to assist the Government 
in conducting these discussions, but the UN is not likely to be 
involved.  (NOTE:  The UN Representative privately told PolOff he 
fears if the "same cast of characters" -- the French and African 
Union - steer the discussions, the Comoros will end up back where 
they started in 2001.  END NOTE.)  Public security on Anjouan was 
only discussed in the context of the upcoming island elections. 
France recommended the AU forces' mandate be extended throughout the 
electoral campaign period, while the AU Envoy encouraged South 
Africa, Mauritius, Seychelles and Madagascar to participate in the 
security and logistical run-up to the elections. 
 
AU CRITICAL OF SOUTH AFRICA; FRANCE TAP DANCES 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
ANTANANARI 00000257  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
¶5. (SBU) AU Envoy Madeira and South African Ambassador Mabeta openly 
sparred during the meeting.  Madeira said everything had gone 
according to plan and announced, "We succeeded in showing that we 
can undertake military action without dramatic catastrophe."  Making 
a pointed dig at South Africa, Madeira said, "We were threatened by 
people who said we should try to resolve things peacefully.  But 
those people advancing this argument did not understand that this 
country has been at war since its independence... It is legitimate 
to use violence to end violence, particularly when you have law and 
right on your side."  Dripping with sarcasm, he thanked South Africa 
for its "constant" position of opposing military action: "When a 
country is constant, at least we know what one thinks."  By 
contrast, the AU was warmly appreciative of U.S. support: "You may 
think the U.S. statement [issued March 28] was simple, but it was 
grand.  When a big power speaks, people listen."  He also credited 
the U.S. Charge's February 27 participation in the delegation that 
issued Bacar his last ultimatum with reinforcing the AU 
determination to move forward.  Ambassador Mabeta was alone in 
maintaining that the military intervention against Anjouan had been 
a mistake. 
 
¶6. (SBU) The French Ambassador gave a lengthy explanation to clarify 
the "suspicious" events, including the French helicopter crash on 
Anjouan March 23, feeding rumors of tacit French support for Bacar. 
Defense Minister Dossar listened silently while the international 
community, including Job himself, chuckled.  Job formally requested 
the Union Government provide a detailed list of human rights 
violations committed by Bacar to assist the French agency dealing 
with his asylum request. 
 
¶7. (SBU) COMMENT:  Very little has been decided about the logistics 
and composition of the upcoming elections on Anjouan, but the Union 
Government clearly wants to move as quickly as possible to put these 
issues behind it.  The AU will organize a meeting of the Peace and 
Security Council on/around April 8 to discuss these issues.  END 
COMMENT. 
 
MARQUARDT