VZCZCXYZ0006
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHIN #0580/01 1190903
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 280903Z APR 08
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8770
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 8200
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 9441

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 000580 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - NIDA EMMONS 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT:  MEDIA REACTION: U.S.-TAIWAN RELATIONS; THE CROSS-STRAIT 
RELATIONS 
 
 
¶1. Summary:  Taiwan's major Chinese-language dailies focused news 
coverage April 26-28 on the amendment to Taiwan's Labor Standards 
Law; on the search for eight missing scuba divers in waters off 
southern Taiwan; and on the unexpected appointment of former Taiwan 
Solidarity Union Legislator Lai Shin-yuan as the chairperson of 
Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council. 
 
¶2. In terms of editorials and commentaries, a commentary in the 
mass-circulation "Apple Daily" commented on speculation that Andrew 
Card will lead the United States delegation to Taiwan's 
President-elect Ma Ying-jeou's inauguration and urged Ma's team to 
seize the opportunity to communicate with Card.  With the early 
disclosure that former Taiwan Solidarity Union Legislator Lai 
Shin-yuan will be the chairperson of Taiwan's Mainland Affairs 
Council, the centrist, KMT-leaning "China Times," the 
pro-unification "United Daily News," and the pro-independence 
"Liberty Times" all have analyses on Lai's appointment and question 
Ma's decision and his motivation.  End summary. 
 
¶3. U.S.-Taiwan Relations 
 
"Who Will Represent the United States to Attend [Taiwan's 
President-elect Ma Ying-jeou's] Inauguration?" 
 
Edward I-hsin Chen, a professor at the Graduate Institute of 
American Studies in Taiwan's Tamkang University and currently a 
visiting fellow at the University of Chicago, opined in the 
mass-circulation "Apple Daily" [circulation: 520,000] (4/28): 
 
"... What's more important is that once the leader of the United 
States Delegation to Ma's inauguration [former White House Chief of 
Staff Andrew Card] comes, how will we seize the opportunity to 
communicate with him? 
 
"This time, if [United States President George W.] Bush sends Card 
to lead the delegation, based on Washington's high degree of 
acceptance of Ma after mutual trust between Taiwan and the United 
States has been reduced during the last eight years of the DPP's 
governance, the United States certainly expects to send its good 
will to the new government and improve mutual relations. 
 
"Moreover, being Bush's long-term good friend, Card has been dealing 
with Taiwan affairs behind the scenes and must be able to exchange 
ideas with Ma in various aspects.  Ma's team for national security 
should be well prepared and pragmatically propose our country's 
requests and the direction of cooperation between both countries 
[Taiwan and the United States] in the future and provide concrete 
advice." 
 
¶4. Cross-Strait Relations 
 
A) Lai Shin-yuan of Ma [Ying-jeou]'s Government vs. Lai Shin-yuan of 
Taiwan Independence; with the Presidential Office on the Top, Chiang 
Pin-kun on the Bottom; Lee Teng-hui on the Left and Lien Chan on the 
Right, Lai Faces Tough Challenges" 
 
Journalists Lin Ting-yao and Hsiao Hsu-tsen analyzed in the 
centrist, KMT-leaning "China Times" [circulation: 400,000] (4/28): 
 
"[Taiwan's President-elect] Ma Ying-jeou borrowed talent from 
[former Taiwan's President] Lee Teng-hui, appointing appointed Lai 
Shin-yuan to be the Chairperson of Taiwan's Mainland Affairs 
Council.  This means that Ma wants to set the role and position that 
Taiwan will play in future U.S.-China-Taiwan relations.  This is 
probably Ma's new government's most signaled cabinet appointment and 
the most crucial appointment for cross-Strait relations in the 
future. ... 
 
"The 'China craze' in the KMT recently has produced a 'many-headed 
wagon' [Ed. Note: this expression refers to a wagon with a team of 
horses that pulls in many different directions].  If Ma does not do 
something, cross-Strait policy in the future will be 'everyone 
[dancing to] his own tune.'  Therefore, the appointment of Lai is a 
warning by Ma to the KMT that 'cross-Strait policy has to listen to 
me!' 
 
"Ma's decision to pick Lai is good chess and also dangerous chess. 
Regardless of Lai's [hardline] positions [vis-a-vis China] in the 
past, from the system of cross-Strait policy-making, there are many 
figures who are familiar with [the cross-Strait policy-making] in 
the KMT.  Ma himself was once the Chairman of Taiwan's Mainland 
Affairs Council.  Vice President-to-be Vincent Siew has been 
studying cross-Strait economic and trade issues for a long time. 
The chairman-designate of Taiwan's Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF) 
Chiang Pin-kun, who has to follow orders from the Mainland Affairs 
Council, is a key figure [in the establishment] of the platform 
between the KMT and the Chinese Communist Party in the past and has 
high-level experience in politics.  It will be very difficult for 
 
Lai to integrate and coordinate the various departments.  Not to 
mention that the 'KMT-CCP platform,' which is outside the [formal] 
structure, is quite favored by the Chinese Communists.   [KMT 
Honorary Chairman] Lien Chan does will not necessarily listen to 
what Lai says. ... 
 
"Of course, there are risks and gains in Ma's [playing this] unusual 
card.  At least for cross-Strait policy in the future, with Lai to 
guard the front, there will be a 'balance of power' regarding the 
resumption of talks between Taiwan's SEF and China's Association for 
Relations across the Taiwan Strait (ARATS) or the KMT-CCP platform 
and prevent Taiwan from tilting too much towards China.  This could 
be an explanation to the Green camp's 5.44 million of voters, which 
is a political arrangement that Ma has planned carefully." 
 
B) "Melting the Ice across the Strait? [Taiwan's President-elect] Ma 
[Ying-jeou] Uses Lai [Shin-yuan] as Dangerous Chess" 
 
Journalist Lee Ming-hsien analyzed in the pro-unification "United 
Daily News" [circulation: 400,000] (4/28): 
 
"The central focus of Ma's and [Taiwan's Vice President-elect 
Vincent] Siew's governance is [improving Taiwan's] economy.  The 
first key to improving the economy is cross-Strait relations.  But 
the loosening and tightening of cross-Strait policy is not in our 
control.  Also, while senior officials in the Blue camp visit China 
on an intensive schedule, the appointment of Lai has the effect of 
cooling the overheating cross-Strait policy, just as Siew said that 
'there will be a flood if the iceberg melts too fast.'  However, Lai 
and her backer [former Taiwan's President] Lee Teng-hui have strong 
tendencies toward Taiwan independence.  Whether this vigorous tonic 
delays the speed of melting of the cross-Strait iceberg or even 
[causes it to] 'freeze again' remains to be seen. ... 
 
"Precisely speaking, Lai insists on Taiwan's sovereignty.  In the 
resumption of negotiations between both sides across the Strait, 
while Chiang [Pin-kun, Chairman-designate of Taiwan's Straits 
Exchange Foundation (SEF)] and Lai will be in control of the SEF and 
Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council (MAC), Ma's camp hopes both Lai 
and Chiang, a hawk and a dove [respectively], could restrain each 
other and fully interpret Ma and Siew's cross-Strait policy in 
between advancement and retreat.  By achieving balance between 
'guarding Taiwan's interests' and 'creating a way out for Taiwan,' 
it will never be a zero-sum game between the two sides across the 
Strait. 
 
"However, the MAC is the decision-making institute and has to take 
responsibility for coordinating and integrating across departments. 
Both Chiang and the Secretary-General-designate of Taiwan's National 
Security Council Su Chi have access to the president.  A wrestling 
match among three sides will probably result in orders coming from 
different departments.  Based on Chiang and other KMT figures' 
experiences and high profiles, which are something Lai cannot 
compete with, it is feared that the MAC will not be able to guide 
the SEF at all.  The war between the SEF and the MAC will likely be 
onstage again and be disadvantageous to the arrangement of 
cross-Strait policy." 
 
C) "Deep Green Entering the Blue Cabinet, Big Challenges for Lai 
[Shin-yuan] to Accommodate" 
 
Journalist Lee Hsin-fang analyzed in the pro-independence "Liberty 
Times" [circulation: 720,000] (4/28): 
 
"Lai has been regarded as former Taiwan's President Lee Teng-hui's 
disciple.  As we all know, Lee, who advocated the policy of 'no 
haste, be patient' during his governance, objects to the pan-Blue's 
China craze.  Lee has reiterated that there is no 1992 consensus 
between two sides across the Strait.  [Taiwan's President-elect] Ma 
[Ying-jeou] advocates one China with respective interpretations and 
recognizes the 1992 consensus.  How Lai deals with the controversy 
over the 1992 consensus in the future will be the first challenge 
for her. ..." 
 
D) "[Taiwan's President-elect] Ma [Ying-jeou]'s Insistence on 
Dangerous Chess; the Backlash inside the [KMT] Party Will be Hard to 
Predict" 
 
Journalist Wang Yu-chung analyzed in the pro-independence "Liberty 
Times" [circulation: 720,000] (4/28): 
 
"... [Taiwan's President-elect] Ma Ying-jeou uses [former Taiwan's 
President] Lee Teng-hui's person to take charge of Taiwan's Straits 
Exchange Foundation (SEF) [sic - she's actually slated for the 
Mainland Affairs Council], there must be a point among Ma, Lee and 
Lai's cross-Strait policy advocacy that coincides.  Especially, Lee 
emphasizes that Taiwan has been a country with independent 
sovereignty.  Ma and Lee should have a consensus that the 
 
three-links negotiation has to be undertaken under the maintenance 
of the status-quo and to secure Taiwan's sovereignty to take care of 
Taiwan's ultimate interests.  Also, Lai advocates that cross-Strait 
negotiations have to be undertaken under the framework of the World 
Trade Organization (WTO), which is consistent with Ma's position. 
With Lai to take charge of the SEF [sic], 'Old Lee' has come back. 
 
"But Ma's arrangement is still filled with dangers.  Ma continues 
his moves, and the [KMT] party has to suffer silently.  Now that 
[Ma] is to use Lee's person, discontent inside the party will break 
out sooner or later.  How it will be dealt with remains to be seen. 
The KMT Central, the Legislative Yuan, and [KMT Honorary Chairman] 
Lien Chan's people will question whether Lai will recognize the five 
prospects achieved between [KMT Honorary Chairman] Lien Chan and 
[Chinese President] Hu Jintao and the KMT's party platform on 
cross-Strait policy.  ... [S]ooner or later Ma will have to have to 
have a showdown with the [KMT] party over strained relations." 
 
YOUNG