VZCZCXYZ0000
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHIN #0550/01 1120959
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 210959Z APR 08
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8729
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 8181
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 9419

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 000550 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - NIDA EMMONS 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: CROSS-STRAIT RELATIONS, TIBET 
 
 
¶1. Summary:  Taiwan's major Chinese-language dailies focused news 
coverage April 19-21 on President-elect Ma Ying-jeou's cabinet 
lineup; on the reform of the DPP; and on speculation over the 
alleged dispatch of U.S. Marines to guard AIT's new office in the 
future.  The pro-independence "Liberty Times" Sunday ran a banner 
headline on page one that said "Taiwan-United States Relations' 
Subtle Change; The United States Will Dispatch Marines to Guard 
AIT." 
 
¶2. In terms of editorials and commentaries, an op-ed in the 
mass-circulation "Apple Daily" suggested that there should be a 
third party participating in cross-Strait negotiations.  An 
editorial in the conservative, pro-unification English-language 
daily "China Post" criticized the United States as being overly 
cautious for allegedly sending three United States aircraft carrier 
battle groups to patrol the waters off southeast Taiwan.  An 
editorial in the pro-independence "Liberty Times" criticized 
president-elect Ma Ying-jeou's "wishful thinking" on the "1992 
consensus and one China with respective interpretations," saying it 
will bring new disasters for Taiwan's sovereignty.  Another 
editorial in the "China Post" criticized China, the Dalai Lama, and 
Western leaders, including United States House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, 
for their alleged failure properly to handle the Tibet issue, 
bringing negative consequences to the relay of Olympic torch around 
the world.  End summary. 
 
¶3. Cross-Strait Relations 
 
A) "The Cross-Strait Negotiation Must Be a Three-Party Game" 
 
Chen I-hsin, a PhD candidate in Economics at the School of Oriental 
and African Studies at the University of London, opined in the 
mass-circulation "Apple Daily" [circulation: 520,000] (4/21): 
 
"Cross-Strait negotiations certainly are an issue between two 
governments on both sides across the Taiwan Strait.  As long as the 
United States and Japan intervene, [they] will be counted as butting 
into Taiwan or China's national sovereignty, which cannot be 
justified.  However, given the special background of cross-Strait 
circumstances, peaceful cross-Strait negotiations do not themselves 
to being ratified only between Taipei and Beijing.  [Peaceful 
negotiations] in black and white without international supervision 
and the promise of the use of force would be in vain, no matter how 
well designed.  This is an innate predicament of cross-Strait 
relations, which proves that cross-Strait negotiations cannot be a 
two-party game only, and Taiwan's new policy of 'cross-Strait 
non-denial" has to receive international recognition.  In other 
words, if a future cross-Strait governance structure cannot be put 
under a superior structure of the global governance, a game between 
two mothers fighting for a child without King Solomon's supervision 
cannot determine for sure that the fake mother will definitely not 
raise a knife against the innocent child, Taiwan." 
 
B) "What Are the Aircraft Career [sic] Battle Groups For?" 
 
The conservative, pro-unification, English-language "China Post" 
[circulation: 30,000] (4/21): 
 
"So why are the three American naval task forces [the Kitty Hawk, 
Nimitz and Lincoln aircraft carrier battle groups] staying near 
Taiwan until the day when [Taiwan's President-elect] Ma [Ying-jeou] 
will be sworn in as president?  Who are they guarding against? 
 
"The logical conclusion is that the Americans are afraid President 
Chen [Shui-bian] may do something extraordinary to prevent Ma's 
inauguration.  Frank Hsieh attacked Ma in a smear campaign for 
carrying a 'green card,' a certificate of permanent residence in the 
United States with which the latter might flee Taiwan in case 
'something very wrong' occurred across the Strait.  Campaigning for 
Hsieh, Chen declared repeatedly he could not 'transfer power' to a 
green card holder.  The United States wants to ensure a 'peaceful 
transition of power' in Taiwan.  Washington knows Chen is an 
extraordinary man capable of doing anything to survive his certain 
trial for corruption.  His first lady was indicted for corruption in 
2006, charged with borrowing invoices and receipts from relatives 
and friends to claim an NT$18.4 million [US$607,160] reimbursement 
from a public fund under her husband's control for the conduct of 
'affairs of state.'  She is on trial.  Chen was not indicted, as 
Taiwan's president is immune to criminal prosecution, but was 
regarded as a co-defendant, who will be formally charged on leaving 
office.  The first couple will stand trial together after May 20 and 
the chances are that they will be both convicted.  He is likely to 
wind up in prison like Chun Do Huan [sic: usual spelling is Chun 
Doo-hwan], a former president of South Korea. 
 
"The Americans are overly cautious.  Chen Shui-bian may try, but 
cannot provoke China into attacking Taiwan to give him an excuse to 
declare war and stay in office.  Nor can he concoct a 'coup d'etat' 
to remain in power.  Taiwan is a democracy where the rule of law 
 
prevails.  No colonels would listen, when told to lead their troops 
to overthrow a government.  And it is impossible for the couple to 
flee like Fernando and Imelda Marcos of the Philippines.  The 
Filipino first couple couldn't have fled without the help of Uncle 
Sam." 
 
C) "Taiwan's Sovereignty Is Facing New Disasters" 
 
The pro-independence "Liberty Times" [circulation: 720,000] 
editorialized (4/21): 
 
"... It is thus Ma Ying-jeou's wishful thinking that China has 
already acknowledged the 1992 consensus and one China with 
respective interpretations.  Given such a situation, Ma's proactive 
efforts to resume dialogue and talks with China, push for direct 
transportation [across the Taiwan Strait], allow more Chinese 
tourists to visit Taiwan, lift the ban on Chinese investments in 
Taiwan's real estate market and open the exchange of currency 
between the two sides will only mislead the international community 
into believing that Taiwan has accepted the 1992 consensus as 
defined by China.  In other words, [the international community] 
will mistakenly believe that Taiwan has disparaged itself under the 
one-China principle. 
 
"If 'one China with respective interpretations' were true, wouldn't 
China's enactment of the Anti-Secession Law in 2005 have become an 
unnecessary move?  While China is targeting Taiwan with more than 
1000 missiles and seeking to contain Taiwan in the international 
community using the one-China principle, Ma is still holding great 
expectations for 'one China with respective interpretations.' [Ma's 
expectations] are akin to bowing submissively to China and letting 
it do whatever it wants with Taiwan.  China, on the other hand, is 
using its persistence in the one-China principle in the 
international community as a pretext and feigning ambiguity in order 
to wipe out Taiwan's sovereignty one step at a time. ..." 
 
¶4. Tibet 
 
"No Gold in Torch Issue" 
 
The conservative, pro-unification, English-language "China Post" 
[circulation: 30,000] (4/19): 
 
"The Dalai Lama, the exiled Tibet spiritual leader, and Western 
human rights groups and politicians like Reporters Without Borders 
and U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, may have erred in their 
calculation that the public humiliation of China would pressure it 
into concession at a time when Beijing is all but ready for the 
Games - a grand international coming out party to showcase the 
accomplishments it has made in the past 30 years. 
 
"While there is no evidence to bear out Beijing's accusation that 
the Dalai Lama was behind the March 14 riots in Tibet, the 
72-year-old monk can hardly wash his hands clean by pretending that 
he had nothing to do with it, judging from the influence he claims 
to wield over his followers.  The ensuing protests by Tibetans in 
the West to disrupt the torch relay around the world, with the help 
of human rights groups everywhere, have effectively tarnished the 
holy flame, which was running like a fugitive instead of a revered 
symbol of peace. ... 
 
"In all likelihood, talks between Beijing and the Dalai Lama appear 
out of the question. The Nobel Peace Prize laureate is unlikely to 
have his dream for a culturally-independent Tibet realized before 
his reincarnation. In this sense, the Dalai Lama is a loser. 
Beijing will not forgive him for messing up the party and causing it 
to lose face. ... 
 
"But Beijing is also a loser, and a big one to boot.  All of a 
sudden, it has become the lightning rod of world outrage.  But it 
has only itself to blame for the mess which could have been 
prevented.  As we have pointed out in this space before, brutal 
force won't solve the unrest in Tibet.  Soft power would be more 
effective.  In the end, Beijing may have the consolation that 
current "crisis" could be a boon because it has made Beijing popular 
and legitimate as never before.  True to the saying that for every 
cloud there is a silver lining.  Beijing's gain, if at all, is 
pyrrhic at best." 
 
YOUNG