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PP RUEHROV
DE RUEHDS #1111 1140613
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 230613Z APR 08 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0375
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHMFIUU/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORP WASHINGTON DC 0113

UNCLAS ADDIS ABABA 001111 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E, DRL FOR SJOSEPH 
LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER 
CJTF-HOA AND CENTCOM FOR POLAD 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PHUM KJUS KDEM PGOV ET
SUBJECT: ELECTION HERALD 9: ELECTIONS FULFILL EPRDF PROPHECY 
 
REF: ADDIS 1065 (AND PREVIOUS) 
 
¶1. (SBU) April 20 marked the second round of polling in 
Ethiopia's local elections and will decide the make-up of the 
thousands of kebele (district) administrations, as well as 
the few remaining federal parliamentary by-elections seats 
not chosen in the first round.  As was the case on the April 
13 polling date (reftel), an informal windshield tour of 
roughly 30 polling stations revealed few voters.  Despite 
National Electoral Board (NEB) claims of 70 percent turnout 
on April 20, the only notable crowds on the streets of Addis 
Ababa were the many churchgoers celebrating Orthodox Palm 
Sunday where the number of palm crowns far overshadowed the 
prevalence of indelible ink by a wide margin. 
 
¶2. (SBU) As expected, the United Ethiopian Democratic Forces 
(UEDF), as well as the Oromo Federal Democratic Movement 
(OFDM) and the Afari Liberation Front (ALF) parties - both of 
which participated in the first round, but later withdrew due 
to reported harassment of observers and candidates - sat out 
the second round.  In the last week, the NEB has repeatedly 
stated that it was illegal for the OFDM and ALF to withdraw 
from the elections after taking part in the initial round, 
saying that it would "take note and declare its decision (on 
how to respond) to the country."  OFDM leader Bulcha Demeksa 
told Poloff on April 18 that he has information that the 
EPRDF is planning on taking punitive action against the OFDM 
for the pull-out, speculating that he will soon lose his 
Addis Ababa offices as well as recognition as a party block 
in Parliament and thus, the right to address Parliament. 
(NOTE: 10 seats are need to be recognized as a party block in 
Parliament. Though the OFDM had won 12 seats in 2005, they 
have since lost three people due to defection and one due to 
death.  Nevertheless, to-date they have retained their status 
in Parliament.  END NOTE.) 
 
¶3. (SBU) The NEB has indicated that all official results will 
be declared by May 18.  However, media reports over the 
weekend stated that, following the April 13 voting, the 
ruling Ethiopian Peoples' Revolutionary Democratic Front 
(EPRDF) had won 137 of the 138 Addis Ababa city 
administration seats (the Coalition for Unity and Democracy 
Party (CUDP) won the other due to the absence of an EPRDF 
candidate), as well as all 14 of the federal Parliamentary 
bi-election seats.  This is a complete reversal from the 2005 
election in which the CUD won 137 seats in the Addis Ababa 
City Council (the EPRDF one) and all of the 14 federal MP 
seats now up for election. 
 
¶4. (SBU) COMMENT: Though the election results published over 
the weekend are unofficial, they are probably accurate and 
will likely reflect the EPRDF's success in the elections 
throughout the country, with even the quasi-opposition 
parties fairing poorly.  As the opposition parties had chosen 
to refrain from fielding candidates for the April 20 kebele 
council elections, the OFDM and ALF boycott was purely 
symbolic rather than an actual withdrawal of candidates. 
Nevertheless, Post believes that the NEB may take advantage 
of their decision to strip administratively the parties of 
their legal party registration as the NEB has previously done 
to the Oromo National Congress in December 2005 and the CUDP 
in January 2007.  There have been no public protests thus far 
and limited criticism of the elections in the media.  Post 
still believes that public demonstrations or violence upon 
publishing official results is very unlikely. 
YAMAMOTO