VZCZCXRO8742
PP RUEHROV
DE RUEHDS #1000/01 1011401
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 101401Z APR 08
FM AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0257
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHMFIUU/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORP WASHINGTON DC 0110

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ADDIS ABABA 001000 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E, DRL FOR SJOSEPH 
LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER 
CJTF-HOA AND CENTCOM FOR POLAD 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PHUM KJUS KDEM PGOV ET
SUBJECT: ELECTIONS HERALD 7: THE INEVITABLE - OPPOSITION 
WITHDRAWAL 
 
REF: ADDIS ABABA 00852 AND PREVIOUS 
 
ADDIS ABAB 00001000  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: On April 4, just over one week before the 
initial polling date (April 13) in Ethiopia's local 
elections, the largest participating opposition party, the 
United Ethiopian Democratic Forces (UEDF) formally outlined 
seven demands that they insist must be met by the National 
Election Board (NEB) in order for them to remain in the 
elections.  The list reiterated the plethora of problems that 
the UEDF has complained about to both the NEB and the 
international community since the election season began - 
lack of independent NEB administrators at the local level, 
lack of independent observers, and difficulty registering 
candidates, among others. In meetings with Ambassador and 
Emboffs over the last few months, party chairman Dr. Beyene 
Petros and vice chairman Dr. Merera Gudina have repeatedly 
said that the UEDF is in the elections only to demonstrate 
that they have "attempted to participate in the democratic 
process," but didn't expect to win many seats at the local 
level or in the by-elections for federal parliamentary seats, 
as a direct result of restrictions and harassment by the 
ruling Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front 
(EPRDF) party.  Indeed, neither they nor any other opposition 
party were able to field a significant number of candidates. 
According to statistics released by the NEB on March 31, the 
opposition had less than one percent of the nearly 3.7 
million candidates, whereas the EPRDF has a candidate for 
nearly every available seat in the country. The UEDF said 
that if the NEB did not meet its demands - which it was 
certain not to - then they would formally announce a pull-out 
on April 10, the last allowable day of campaigning. Despite 
the Ambassador's urging of Dr. Beyene to rethink his strategy 
of withdrawal, the UEDF gave a press conference in the 
afternoon of April 10 announcing they are out of the 
elections. END SUMMARY. 
 
----------------------- 
UEDF GIVES AN ULTIMATUM 
 
SIPDIS 
----------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) On April 4, the UEDF, a coalition of opposition 
parties from the Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples 
Region (SNNPR) and Oromiya region, gave a press conference 
outlining a list of seven demands of the NEB in order for the 
UEDF to remain in the local elections scheduled for April 13 
 
SIPDIS 
and 20. They demand that the NEB: 
 
-- Assign independent and neutral election administrators to 
local NEB offices.  They claim that election officials, who 
are mostly drawn from the civil service, come entirely from 
the EPRDF party membership and are anything but neutral. 
 
-- Elect polling station observers according to the Electoral 
Law.  The UEDF says that all of the community polling 
station-level observers, who, according to the Electoral Law, 
are supposed to be members of the community specifically 
elected in town-hall forums, were hand selected by the NEB 
from kebele (locality) administrations (therefore EPRDF party 
cadres), rather than elected.  This would mean that of the 12 
observers to be present at every polling station where the 
UEDF is running (five community members, plus five NEB 
 
SIPDIS 
officials, and one each from the EPRDF and UEDF), 11 would be 
sympathetic to the EPRDF. 
 
-- Deploy election observers from local NGOs.  To date, 
despite repeated promises from the NEB to political parties 
and the donor community alike, no domestic observation groups 
have received licenses from the NEB to participate in the 
elections. 
 
-- Register all denied UEDF candidates who sought permission 
to run in their local constituency. The UEDF and other 
opposition groups have detailed countless incidents of 
harassment of potential or registered candidates (reftel) and 
claim that the NEB continues to cancel already registered 
candidates on a daily basis, typically for very questionable 
reasons. 
 
-- Allocate media time fairly to opposition parties.  As a 
result of the NEB's dubious accounting of party numbers, the 
EPRDF is granted 14.5 hours of airtime for every one that the 
UEDF receives. 
 
SIPDIS 
 
ADDIS ABAB 00001000  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
 
-- Suspend the recently issued election code of conduct until 
all parties have had the opportunity to contribute to its 
content. Dr. Beyene claims that the UEDF only learned of the 
code of conduct after the GoE had already accused him of 
violating it when he criticized the NEB on national media. 
 
-- Ensure that EPRDF harassment and imprisonment of UEDF 
party members, officials and candidates cease. 
 
¶3. (SBU) In a meeting with Poloff on April 7, Dr. Beyene and 
Dr. Merera said that a combination of recent events were 
collectively the "straw that broke the camel's back."  In 
addition to the alleged recent appointment, rather than 
election, of election observers for polling stations, Dr. 
Merera said that the NEB changed the rule on party observer 
registration.  In the 2005 elections, party level observers 
were easily allowed to be registered at the national level 
and allowed to do so up to the day before the election.  Now, 
however, observers are required to register locally 10 days 
in advance.  Given the level of harassment and intimidation 
experienced in the Oromiya region, Dr. Merera said that his 
party has been unable to convince even one person to act as 
an observer.  Further pushing them to the decision to issue 
an ultimatum to the NEB (made in an emergency party meeting 
on April 2) was Dr. Merera's experience the previous weekend 
in attempting to campaign for one of his party's candidates. 
Upon arriving at the candidate's constituency to attend a 
previously planned rally, Dr. Merera was refused access to 
the city center and had his campaign materials confiscated by 
local security forces, telling him that his planned gathering 
was illegal.  As explained by Dr. Beyene, these events, when 
coupled with the countless other issues they feel were not 
addressed by the NEB, mean that the UEDF's participation in 
the elections would only lend legitimacy to the "illegally 
run election." 
 
¶4. (SBU) Upon the news of the UEDF's demands, the other 
staunchly anti-EPRDF opposition group registered in these 
elections, the Oromo Federalist Democratic Movement (OFDM), 
reaffirmed its participation.  Party leader Bulcha Demeksa 
informed Poloff that his party officials met on April 9 to 
discuss the matter of withdrawal, but in the end decided that 
their original position of participation was the best 
strategy.  Though his party only has 180 candidates 
registered, and has faced all the same issues that the UEDF 
has during the run-up to the polling dates, Bulcha said that 
it is important to the OFDM membership that they make a stand 
and attempt to participate in the democratic process. 
 
----------------------------- 
NEB'S STATS PREDICT LANDSLIDE 
----------------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) On March 31, in response to demands from the donor 
community, the NEB released party-by-party statistics on the 
number of registered candidates for the upcoming elections. 
As expected, the number of candidates is vastly in favor of 
the ruling EPRDF.  The only area in which the opposition 
fielded a relevant number of candidates is for by-election 
seats for the federal parliament.  However, the seats will be 
re-elected in 2010 and, even if the opposition is successful, 
cannot overcome the EPRDF's majority in parliament. 
Highlights from the statistics include: 
 
-- 36 percent of the 181 candidates for federal parliamentary 
seats are from the EPRDF, with the remainder from the 
opposition or individual candidates.  However, if including 
the numerous opposition parties that are discredited and 
perceived to have been co-opted by the EPRDF, this percentage 
rises to 61 percent. 
 
-- 62 percent of the 461 candidates for the Addis Ababa City 
Council are from the EPRDF, with the remainder from 
opposition or individual candidates. Again, when including 
psuedo-opposition parties, this rises to 88 percent. 
 
-- 99.4 percent of the 3,596,227 candidates for local 
elections are from the EPRDF. 
 
Notably, no opposition party had enough candidates to win any 
of the approximately 30,000 kebele administrations.  The UEDF 
 
ADDIS ABAB 00001000  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
is the only party that had enough candidates to win a 
majority in any woreda (county), with Dr. Beyene estimating 
that they had fielded enough candidates to potentially win 
three or four of the approximately 600 woredas in the 
country.  No opposition party had enough candidates to win a 
zone (district). 
 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
COMMENT: PULLOUT UNFORTUNATE, BUT UNDERSTANDABLE 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
¶6. (SBU) While it is unfortunate that the UEDF decided to 
present an ultimatum to the NEB - which almost certainly will 
lead to the UEDF withdrawal from the local elections - their 
frustrations are understandable.  Since the election season 
began in January, the UEDF and other opposition parties have 
faced numerous obstacles and challenges, most stemming from 
unrelenting harassment and intimidation from the EPRDF. The 
matter of election observation particularly has the sympathy 
of the international community, as donors have long been 
pressing the NEB to complete guidelines for domestic NGOs to 
take part in observation.  Unless they finally do so at the 
11th hour, as the courts forced them to do in the 2005 
elections, there will be no independent observation groups 
overseeing these elections. When coupled with the NEB's 
alleged appointment of EPRDF party members as "independent" 
polling station observers throughout the country, it has 
guaranteed that the potential number and validity of 
opposition complaints will be extremely limited.  The 
statistics released by the NEB indicate that the opposition 
has virtually no chance at any material gain in 
representation at any level of government in these elections. 
 Whether through superior financing and coordination, or 
through the wide-spread harassment of the opposition, the 
EPRDF has ensured that it will have no threat to its 
one-party rule during these local elections.  The lack of 
election observation ensures that no group will likely 
criticize the election process, but at the same time it will 
be impossible for anyone to say legitimately that the 
elections were free and fair. END COMMENT. 
YAMAMOTO