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DE RUEHUJA #0686/01 1051808
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P 141808Z APR 08
FM AMEMBASSY ABUJA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2588
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
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RHEBAAA/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHDC
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RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUZEJAA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000686 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/W, INR/AA 
DEPT. OF ENERGY FOR GEORGE PERSON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: KOGI BY-ELECTION SEES LITTLE IMPROVEMENT 
 
REF: A. ABUJA 485 
     ¶B. ABUJA 253 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The March 29 Kogi State gubernatorial 
by-election was better organized than the April 2007 general 
elections, but was still plagued by problems including 
missing voting materials, late opening of polling stations, 
underage voting, poorly organized voter registers, and some 
violence.  Perhaps because of fear of violence or simple 
voter apathy, voter turnout appeared low (Mission and other 
observers estimated no more than 15%); yet the Independent 
National Electoral Commission (INEC) announced a turnout of 
more than 50%.  The Kogi by-election serves as a clear 
reminder that to date no electoral reforms have been 
implemented since the highly flawed April 2007 polls.  In the 
end, Ibrahim Idris (Peoples Democratic Party - PDP), whose 
April 2007 election had been annulled by the courts (ref B), 
was once again declared the winner by INEC.  His opponent, 
Prince Abubakar Audu (All Nigeria Peoples Party - ANPP), who 
also had the backing of the Action Congress, immediately 
declared that he would once again contest the results in the 
courts.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2. (U) Emboffs observed the March 29 gubernatorial 
by-election in Kogi State, visiting five Local Government 
Areas (LGAs), and observing 30 functioning polling stations. 
Approximately another 30 we observed never opened or received 
voting materials.  The polling units that did open could be 
characterized as generally well-organized with a process that 
appeared uniform.  At each functioning station, we also 
observed sufficient amounts of materials, serialized ballots, 
a voter register, the marking of thumbs, thumb-printing of 
ballots, and a tally sheet for recording results.  Despite 
the improved order at polling stations, we also observed many 
problems, including underage voters, non-alphabetized and 
incomplete voter registers without photos, and individuals 
voting without proof of registration.  When queried, INEC 
officials at units in Okene and Adavi LGAs said they had 
turned away as many as 200 voters due to lack of proof of 
registration.  Although, there were privacy screens set up to 
give the illusion of secrecy, police officers hovered over 
voters at several polling stations, making sure they were 
"doing it right." 
 
¶3. (U) Universally, turnout was low, particularly in the 
Okene and Adavi LGAs, where it was less than 10%. In many 
stations, only 20-30 people had voted by 1400hrs and in some 
places there was no one in line to vote after that time.  One 
compilation center we observed in Adavi had 20 boxes lined up 
by 1330hrs.  In the polls observed in the eastern portion of 
the state, turnout appeared slightly higher at 15 percent. 
In the Eastern District, we observed lines of about 50-100 
people still voting at 1600hrs due to late opening of the 
polls.  At one station with over 1,000 voters registered, 
they said they would remain open until everyone had voted. 
By the end of the day, we did not observe any station that 
had more than 200 votes cast, yet INEC's results suggest that 
there was 54 percent voter turnout. 
 
¶4. (U) A majority of the polling stations we observed opened 
late (some as late as noon) due to problems with the 
distribution of materials and late arrival of INEC officials. 
 INEC representatives said that they were being bused to 
their stations, so in many cases it took a long time to 
travel to all the polling stations.  Additionally, numerous 
polling stations never received voting materials or saw an 
INEC official arrive.  Nine of eleven wards, consisting of 22 
polling stations, in the Okene LGA never received materials. 
(NOTE: Senator Otaru Ohize, representing the Kogi Central 
District, ultimately announced the cancellation of the 
elections in Okene as a result of alleged violence.  END 
NOTE.)  Several wards in Ajaokuta and Dekina also did not 
receive materials and in Anyigba LGA, we were unable to find 
any polling stations or signs of people attempting to queue. 
Bystanders we questioned said that there had been no sign of 
polling all day. 
 
¶5. (U) Although there were media reports of violence in 
Okene, we did not witness any incidents at any of the 
stations visited.  A domestic observer, partnered with the 
U.S. National Democratic Institute (NDI), however, said that 
 
ABUJA 00000686  002 OF 002 
 
 
he witnessed violence in Okene when a man tried to move a 
ballot box.  The crowd chased the man, creating chaos that 
led the Police to fire their guns and use tear gas to 
disperse the crowd.  At the first polling station we visited 
in the Ojono ward of the Lokoja LGA, we encountered ANPP 
supporters attempting to take the ballot box to another 
location alleging fears that the PDP stronghold in the area 
would "steal the election again."  As the crowd argued and 
grew angrier, we departed the area. 
 
¶6. (U) Despite the low turnout observed, INEC announced that 
54% of the 1,365,641 registered voters cast ballots during 
the by-election.  INEC credited Idris with 74% of the votes 
and Audu with 25%.  Audu only won in two LGAs, while Idris 
won in 18 and one LGA (Okene) was canceled all together. 
Other parties, such as the Democratic Peoples Party (DPP), 
Peoples Progressive Alliance (PPA), All Progressive Grand 
Alliance (APGA), and the Progressive Action Congress (PAC), 
each received between 500 and 1500 votes total accounting for 
only 1% of the voters according to INEC.  After the results 
were announced, Audu announced that he would be returning to 
the election tribunal, alleging illegal thumb-printing and 
changing of results affected the outcome. 
 
¶7. (SBU) COMMENT: Although there were noticeable improvements 
in the overall organization of the Kogi by-election, in many 
ways much remained the same as in April 2007.  Despite our 
observations of a 10-15% turnout (at those polling stations 
that even opened), INEC's announced results reflect 54% of 
the registered voters in the state, suggesting an inflation 
in numbers at some point in the compilation process.  It was 
difficult to determine if the low turnout was due to apathy, 
fear, or both; but the discrepancy between the observed 
turnout and that announced by INEC was quite clear and 
underscores the fact that to date no reforms have been 
carried out since the flawed April 2007 elections.  Audu 
again announced his intentions to contest the results in 
court.  Idris' reinstatement as governor also raises the 
question of his term's length and whether the clock for his 
tenure now starts over.  If this sets a precedent, Nigeria 
could begin to experience staggered elections in future 
(heretofore, state and federal elections have been conducted 
across the country on two consecutive Saturdays).  It is 
unclear what impact this might have on electoral reform.  END 
COMMENT. 
SANDERS