VZCZCXRO7623
PP RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHVB #0256 0780625
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 180625Z MAR 08
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8759
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

UNCLAS ZAGREB 000256 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON EFIS PGOV PREL SENV HR
SUBJECT: CROATIA DUMPS FISHING ZONE OVERBOARD IN HOPES OF 
ACCELERATING EU ACCESSION 
 
REF: A. ZAGREB 84 
     ¶B. 2007 ZAGREB 1065 
 
¶1. (U) SUMMARY: On March 13, the Croatian parliament voted to 
suspend application of its Ecological and Fisheries 
Protection Zone (ZERP) to EU member states until Croatia, 
Italy, and Slovenia can reach a joint agreement on the issue. 
The one-vote margin by which the suspension passed belies 
broader support for the suspension, as most of the opposition 
members abstained to avoid voting with the government. The 
European Commission rewarded the parliament's decision with 
an announcement that its autumn Enlargement Package will 
include a timetable for the technical conclusion of Croatia's 
negotiations in 2009. End Summary. 
 
¶2. (U) After debating the issue until midnight on March 12th, 
the Croatian parliament voted to suspend application of the 
Ecological and Fisheries Protection Zone (ZERP) to EU member 
states until Croatia, Italy, and Slovenia can reach a joint 
agreement on the issue. The suspension bill passed with the 
minimum necessary votes: 77 ayes. The nine nays included the 
6 representatives of the Croatian Peasants' Party (HSS), a 
member party of the governing coalition. Although the HSS 
pushed ZERP application as one of its top goals during the 
coalition-building negotiations in January, party leaders 
have indicated publicly they will not leave the coalition 
over the ZERP's suspension. Also among the nays were two 
representatives of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), the 
primary opposition party. The remaining SDP members, as well 
as the Croatian People's Party (HNS) members, abstained from 
the vote. While the SDP overall supported ZERP suspension as 
a necessary step, members did not want to cast "aye" votes 
and thereby help the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) out of a 
difficult situation, according to comments by SDP leaders. 
 
¶3. (U) Croatia began applying ZERP regulations to EU member 
states on January 1, 2008, despite objections from Slovenia 
and Italy and warnings from the European Commission that the 
move could hamper accession negotiations (reftels). Through 
January and into February, Croatia and Slovenia escalated 
their rhetoric to an apparent standoff, with Croatian PM 
Sanader insisting he would not yield on ZERP implementation. 
In recent weeks, however, Sanader's comments have aimed to 
create the political space to yield. Acknowledging that 
Croatia was under an "informal blockade" in accession 
negotiations, Sanader told the public Croatia faced an 
unavoidable choice between ZERP and the EU, and that he and 
his HDZ party were choosing the EU. HSS leaders continued to 
voice their opposition to suspension, and a few fishermen's 
guilds and environmental groups also spoke out against 
suspension. However, overall public response was muted. 
 
¶4. (U) The European Commission immediately rewarded Croatia 
for the decision to suspend ZERP: on March 13, following a 
meeting with Sanader in Brussels, Commission President Jose 
Barroso announced that the Commission's autumn Enlargement 
Package will include a timetable for the technical conclusion 
of Croatia's negotiations in 2009, provided Croatia meets a 
number of conditions. He said he considered one of those 
conditions--suspending all aspects of ZERP with respect to EU 
vessels--now done. Both he and Sanader said they were 
confident Croatia could meet the remaining conditions and 
conclude negotiations by the end of the Commission's mandate 
in October 2009. Slovene PM Jansa also said the ZERP decision 
was a positive step in removing the obstacles to faster 
accession negotiations. While Sanader played up the EU 
statements, other local politicians have been more skeptical. 
 SDP MP and former Foreign Minister Tonino Picula said 
Barroso's announcement was just a courtesy gesture. HSS 
President Josip Friscic, still a member of the ruling 
coalition, warned that Slovenia and the EU would probably 
just come up with some other obstacle to slow down Croatia's 
EU accession. 
 
¶5. (SBU) COMMENT: Although Sanader appears to have suffered 
little political damage for conceding on ZERP, it remains to 
be seen whether his government can turn the optimism of the 
March 13 announcements into real progress in the accession 
negotiations. Martin Mayer, political advisor at the European 
Commission Delegation to Croatia, told us that, although 
events of recent days are "encouraging political signals," 
there is no formal procedure linking ZERP suspension to 
acceleration of the negotiations.  The fact that Croatia has 
yet to meet a single accession benchmark and did not manage 
to close any negotiating chapters in 2007 does not bode well 
for the GoC's chances of accelerating its progress 
sufficiently to complete negotiations in the next year and a 
half. 
Bradtke