VZCZCXRO3849
OO RUEHCHI RUEHCN RUEHDT RUEHHM RUEHTRO
DE RUCNDT #0268/01 0851424
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 251424Z MAR 08
FM USMISSION USUN NEW YORK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3981
INFO RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS PRIORITY
RUEHGG/UN SECURITY COUNCIL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA PRIORITY 1904
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI PRIORITY 2132
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO PRIORITY 8456
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY 3149
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 USUN NEW YORK 000268 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PHUM PREL UNSC BM
SUBJECT: GAMBARI ADMITS NO PROGRESS IN BURMA BUT CALLS FOR 
PATIENCE 
 
REF: SECSTATE 27905 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  In both the Group of Friends meeting and 
during his briefing to the Security Council on March 18, UN 
Special Adviser Gambari admitted that his recent visit to 
Burma did not result in "an immediate, tangible outcome" but 
reported that the Burmese regime, Aung Sun Suu Kyi (ASSK), 
Secretary-General Ban, and the neighbors have all told him 
 
SIPDIS 
that his mission is "as relevant as ever."  Gambari called 
for patience and reminded the Friends and the Council that 
the good offices process is subject to ups and downs.  He 
noted that two years ago there was no dialogue with the 
regime and that 2010 elections would be the first general 
election in 20 years.  He urged the regime, however, to 
engage in a meaningful dialogue with ASSK without delay.  In 
an earlier meeting with the Group of Friends, Gambari floated 
the Indonesian idea of establishing a small "subgroup" of 
regional countries to discuss Burma informally, which was 
rejected by China and India.  Gambari also suggested that he 
would meet with Burmese authorities in a third country to 
press for progress between visits to Burma, which was 
received positively. 
 
¶2. (SBU) Summary cont.:  During the portion of the Security 
Council briefing open to member states, Burmese PermRep Swe 
claimed that the referendum would be "free and fair" and all 
would be welcome to participate on equal terms, including the 
opposition.  In closed discussion between Council members and 
Gambari that followed, Chinese PR Wang repeated the Chinese 
position urging international support for the admittedly 
imperfect Seven Step Roadmap and expressing opposition to 
sanctions.  Ambassador Khalilzad recalled the October 11 
Presidential Statement (PRST), observing that the Burmese 
regime had not responded to the concerns of the international 
community outlined in the PRST and concluding that Gambari's 
recent visit, which was "particularly disappointing," had 
also failed to generate concrete action.  He pressed the 
Council to focus sharply on the referendum and adopt a PRST 
calling for an election process that meets international 
standards and contributes to a more inclusive political 
process.  The rest of the Council split on predictable lines, 
with the Europeans criticizing the failed visit and the 
Asians calling for patience and recognizing progress. 
France, UK, Indonesia, Belgium, South Africa, Burkina Faso, 
Italy, Croatia and Russia agreed to work on a PRST as 
outlined by Ambassador Khalilzad.  Indonesian PR Natalegawa 
cautioned that the Council should speak with one voice and 
Russian PR Churkin alleged that a PRST focused on a 
constitutional referendum might not be an appropriate topic 
for the Council. 
 
GAMBARI 
 
¶3. (SBU) In both the Group of Friends meeting and the Council 
briefing held March 18, Special Adviser Gambari admitted that 
there was no immediate outcome from his recent visit to 
Burma.  He characterized the regime's willingness to allow 
him to visit Burma early and extend his visit by one day as 
major concessions.  He also asserted that the regime had 
taken "bold steps" in establishing a timeline for the 
referendum and elections.  Gambari said that he offered UN 
technical assistance and strongly suggested independent 
monitors for the referendum to enhance its credibility. 
While the regime did not accept his offer, he reported that 
they assured him the referendum would be "free and fair." 
Gambari also obtained a copy of the draft constitution, in 
Burmese, and said that the regime planned to publish the 
document "soon."  Gambari conveyed the regime's unwillingness 
to consider the establishment of an economic forum to address 
the root causes for discontent in Burma until sanctions are 
lifted.  Regarding engagement with the regime, Gambari noted 
that the UN, via his good offices mission, is the only 
"outsider" to maintain access to ASSK and the regime and is 
the preferred interlocutor of the international community and 
the region.  He assured the Friends and Council members that 
the regime, ASSK, SYG Ban and the neighbors all agree that 
engagement with the regime through his good offices mission 
is as "relevant as ever." 
 
¶4. (SBU) During the Group of Friends meeting, Gambari 
suggested that he would meet with senior Burmese government 
officials in a third country between his visits to Burma. 
Gambari speculated that such meetings could potentially 
encourage more substantive dialogue with the regime.  He also 
 
USUN NEW Y 00000268  002 OF 003 
 
 
floated the idea of a smaller, "subgroup" on Burma comprised 
of key regional countries.  He proposed that the group could 
hold informal discussions in the region and that he would 
report these discussions to the UN.  While the majority of 
friends were supportive of third country meetings with senior 
Burmese authorities, China and India rejected Gambari's 
proposal for a "subgroup" on Burma, noting that there were 
already enough groups handling the issue. 
 
BURMA 
 
¶5. (SBU) Addressing the Security Council, Burmese PR Swe 
expressed "appreciation and admiration" for Gambari and the 
"principled manner" in which he implements the good offices 
mandate.  Swe asked that the Council take a broad view or 
progress in Burma, noting that the regime is nearly on step 
four of the Seven Step Roadmap, a process that they initiated 
in 2003.  He was "gratified" that neighbors who saw the 
situation for "what it was" highlighted the progress made 
during Gambari's recent visit.  Swe claimed that the NLD 
participated in the National Convention when it drafted three 
chapters of "fundamental principles."  The group would not 
participate when the Convention reconvened in 2004, he said. 
Swe stressed the inclusive nature of the Convention and the 
referendum process and said that the "Spokesperson Team" 
assured Gambari during his visit that the referendum would be 
"free and fair."  He stated "in the referendum as well as in 
the elections, everyone - those who support the Government 
and those who 
oppose its policies - will be allowed to participate on equal 
terms."  He reiterated that cooperation with the UN is a 
cornerstone of Burmese policy and reminded the Council that 
the situation was not a threat to international peace and 
security.  He concluded by announcing that no Security 
Council action was warranted. 
 
ASIAN PERSPECTIVE 
 
¶6. (SBU) In both meetings, the Chinese invoked SYG Ban's 
statement that some progress had been made, focusing on 
Gambari's ability to visit Burma earlier than planned and 
extend his visit by one day.  They also listed those with 
whom he met, emphasizing that he met twice with ASSK. 
Chinese PR Wang said that the Seven Step Roadmap demonstrated 
Burmese commitment to democratization and is the result of 
years of discussion.  He added that lack of inclusion in the 
process thus far could be addressed through expanded 
dialogue.  The Chinese reiterated their position that the 
international community must be patient with Burma and create 
an "enabling" environment.  The Chinese cautioned Friends and 
Council members to avoid sanctions, which Wang argued only 
provoke the regime and could damage the dialogue process. 
Vietnam and Indonesia echoed China's view.  Vietnamese PR 
Minh also highlighted the complexity of the situation in 
Burma, reaffirming its support for a comprehensive approach 
that respects Burma's sovereignty.  Indonesian PR Natalegawa 
urged the Council to avoid oversimplifying Gambari's visit by 
characterizing it as a "success" or "failure" and suggested 
that the Council should not "overplay" Gambari's inability to 
meet with senior Burmese authorities, specifically Than Shwe. 
 
 
¶7. (SBU) Among Asian countries in the Group of Friends, only 
the Japanese remarked that Gambari's recent visit was a 
disappointment and questioned whether Burma's engagement was 
a pretext for doing nothing.  India and Thailand followed 
China's lead in stressing that progress would be incremental 
and emphasizing the importance of a pragmatic, patient 
approach.  Thai PR Pramudwinai claimed to know Burma better 
than most members of the group owing to a history of 
"fighting the Burmese for the past 100 years."  He advocated 
a "softer approach," and encouraged Friends to invite Burmese 
authorities to visit their countries and expose them to the 
outside world.  Singapore repeated Burma's request to ASEAN 
that the UN not ASEAN serve as the link between the regime 
and the international community.  (Note: During the meeting, 
Gambari introduced the Republic of Korea as a new member of 
the group.) 
 
U.S. AND LIKE-MINDED 
 
¶8. (SBU) In both meetings Ambassador Khalilzad recalled the 
October 11 PRST concerns in detail and concluded that the 
regime had failed to take concrete action on any of these 
 
USUN NEW Y 00000268  003 OF 003 
 
 
issues;  in this regard, Gambari's most recent visit was 
particularly disappointing.  Ambassador Khalilzad reiterated 
support for Gambari but cautioned that the good offices 
mission process must yield results.  The question for the 
Council is what can we do to help Gambari's mission be 
results-oriented?  He pointed to the referendum on the 
constitution as the next milestone.  Noting the regime's 
unwillingness to accept technical assistance from the UN, he 
urged the Council to focus sharply on the referendum and 
adopt a PRST that calls for a credible referendum that 
contributes to more inclusive political process.  Ambassador 
Khalilzad previewed reftel points and remarked that Gambari's 
ability to be effective in his good offices role depends in 
part on the Security Council providing him the necessary 
support. 
 
¶9. (SBU) Among Council delegations, France, UK, Belgium, 
Italy, Croatia, Costa Rica and Burkina Faso also criticized 
the lack of progress in Burma and characterized Gambari's 
recent visit as disappointing.  UK PR Sawers also stressed 
the need to release ASSK in order for the referendum process 
to be credible.  He highlighted flaws in the constitution, 
which, according to Sawers, included a provision for the 
military to suspend the constitution.  Sawers added that if 
the regime follows through with the referendum, the UK would 
judge the process by international standards.  Burkina Faso 
PR Kafando "deplored" Gambari's inability to meet with senior 
members of the regime and called for rectification of 
provisions that limit ASSK's participation in the process. 
 
¶10. (SBU) Responding to Amb Khalilzad's call for a PRST, 
Italy cautioned that only a unified message from the Council 
could be effective.  France, UK, Belgium, Italy, Burkina 
Faso, and Croatia all expressed support for a PRST with a 
strong focus on an inclusive referendum.  Indonesia supported 
the proposal for a PRST but cautioned that the Council needed 
to speak with one voice and avoid a divisive exercise. 
 
 
¶11. (SBU) During the Group of Friends meeting, EU Special 
Envoy for Myanmar Fassino spoke on behalf of the EU.  Fassino 
suggested that raising the level of ASSK's government liaison 
is a critical step in the process toward reconciliation in 
Burma.  He also agreed that the international community must 
press the regime to set criteria for the referendum that 
reflect international standards and norms.  He pledged EU 
support for Gambari and his good offices mission and remarked 
that ASEAN and neighboring countries could play a vital role 
in Burma.  Norway and Australia reiterated their support for 
the good offices process, stressing that dialogue is the key 
to reconciliation in Burma.  Australia called for concrete 
progress between now and the referendum, suggesting that 
focusing on Gambari's proposed National Economic Forum could 
be beneficial. 
 
RUSSIA, LIBYA, PANAMA AND SOUTH AFRICA 
 
¶12. (SBU) Russia acknowledged that Gambari's recent visit was 
a disappointment but stressed that the international 
community should not underestimate the upcoming referendum. 
Russian PR Churkin expressed support for an inclusive 
referendum but also remarked that both sides must be ready to 
make concessions in order to establish an inclusive national 
dialogue.  While Russia stated its willingness to engage on a 
PRST, Churkin expressed concern with a statement that focused 
on constitutional referendum, which he alleged was not an 
appropriate role for the Council.  Libyan PR Ettalhi 
commented that the dialogue is taking root and that Libya 
hopes the referendum will be a turning point in Burma.  He 
cautioned, however, that the international community should 
not interfere in the internal affairs of another country. 
 
¶13. (SBU) Panamanian PR Arias called into question the 
constitution as a step forward, remarking that the 
constitution and the process by which it was adopted was 
"autocratic," not democratic.  Arias characterized regime 
actions as inadequate and called on the international 
community to pressure the regime to democratize its 
institutions and respect human rights.  The South African DPR 
 stated that only national dialogue would resolve the 
situation in Burma, and said South Africa would be willing to 
work on a PRST. 
KHALILZAD