VZCZCXRO4935
OO RUEHIK RUEHPOD RUEHYG
DE RUEHTI #0193/01 0741048
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 141048Z MAR 08
FM AMEMBASSY TIRANA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6817
INFO RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TIRANA 000193 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/SCE 
 
E.O. 12958:N/A 
TAGS: NATO PGOV PREL AL
SUBJECT:  ALBANIANS WILL WELCOME NATO MEMBERSHIP ... ALTHOUGH 
REALITIES ARE BEGINNING TO SINK IN 
 
Ref:  TIRANA 102 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1. (U) NATO membership is strongly supported by the Albanian public 
and officialdom -- over ninety percent favor membership, according 
to the media and GOA officials.  There are numerous reasons for 
this.  Emerging from years of isolation, Albanians want to feel and 
be recognized as the Europeans they really are.  NATO membership 
would certainly do that.  Also, Albanians want to be able to travel 
like Europeans and enjoy a higher quality of life.  They see NATO 
membership as a way of moving toward these goals by focusing on 
reforms, by attracting more foreign investment, and by moving a step 
closer to membership in the EU. 
 
¶2. (U) However, there seems to be a growing sentiment that the GOA 
is neglecting domestic policies and concentrating too much on 
courting foreign institutions.  While electricity blackouts and 
water shortages have ceased for the time being, they are still fresh 
in the minds of citizens who realize that a whim of nature could 
bring the darkness back quickly.  Moreover, as prices of daily 
commodities rise in response to increased energy costs, some are 
beginning to question the government's priorities.  Although the 
whole spectrum of political parties and the public remain 
steadfastly committed to NATO, a few are gradually raising the 
question:  is foreign recognition worth doubling the price of bread? 
 End Summary. 
 
High Public Support For NATO? 
----------------------------- 
 
¶3. (U) According to the GOA, popular support for NATO has never been 
higher among Albanians, with some GOA estimates as high as 95% of 
the population.  As the Bucharest Summit approaches, Post has 
attempted to identify what Albanians expect will come from a NATO 
invitation that generates this kind of enthusiasm.  Furthermore, 
Post has taken steps to understand what the GOA is anticipating 
after the Bucharest Summit assuming an invitation is extended. 
 
¶4. (SBU) We should clarify that GOA estimates of high popular 
support is based on "gut-feel" - there has never been a scientific 
poll of any kind asking the general public for its opinion on NATO 
membership.  Also, while Embassy personnel have tried to explain 
obligations of NATO membership to GOA interlocutors, the message has 
not sunk in and certainly has not been passed on to the public. 
 
Economic Advantages 
------------------- 
 
¶5. (U) The GOA cites mostly economic reasons why being a member of 
NATO is a positive step for the future of Albania.  Foreign 
investment would increase due to investors' greater confidence in 
Albania's political stability, rule of law, and fight against 
corruption.  History reflects this with other countries' membership 
in NATO, such as Romania and Bulgaria.  However, all the recent NATO 
inductees also became members of the European Union shortly after 
NATO accession, something that will likely not happen to Albania for 
many years. 
 
¶6.  (U) Accounts from new member states also indicate that before 
new investment began to boost the economy, which took several years 
in some cases, the states experienced a reduction of military 
assistance from the Allies, causing an initial belt-tightening and 
reduction in economic well-being.  Albanians are already grumbling 
loudly about soaring food prices.  Producers warn that bread prices 
could double by the end of this year from 2006 prices.  Other food 
items have also increased by 25 - 100 percent during the same 
period.  An electricity rate hike is planned for later this spring, 
which, along with spiraling fuel costs, will add to the consumers' 
economic burden (reftel).  Nevertheless, many Albanians see NATO as 
a driver, not an inhibitor, for the GOA to remain committed to 
reforms, which, in the longer term, will mean more prosperity for 
all. 
 
"The Club" 
---------- 
 
¶7. (U) The real reason for NATO enthusiasm probably has more to do 
with national pride and prestige.  Albania was an isolated pariah 
fr/lT7(kPing them relief - Europeans began to 
view Albania as the cradle of organized crime, drugs, and 
trafficking, and kept their doors closed. 
 
¶8. (U) NATO membership, therefore, is important to Albanians because 
it tells them that Europeans are beginning to see them more as 
 
TIRANA 00000193  002 OF 002 
 
 
partners and members of the family.  When poloff recently visited a 
remote village, he was warmly received because the villagers see the 
U.S. as a country that respects them as people and wants to help 
them achieve status in Europe.  While they knew little of NATO, they 
understood that NATO would bring them closer to becoming real 
Europeans.  FM Basha told USG interlocutors on a recent Washington 
visit that Albania owes many of its successes in fighting 
corruption, organized crime, trafficking, and a growing economy to 
its foreign policy, which has made Albanians feel more respected 
then ever. 
 
Travel 
------ 
 
¶9. (U) An important perceived advantage of being in "The Club" is 
the ability to travel freely.  Unrestricted travel is a dream for 
many Albanians, who consider themselves still to be in a kind of 
jail from which they cannot escape without someone's permission. 
Many we have talked to seem to think that NATO membership will 
suddenly give them freer travel access throughout the world, 
possibly confusing NATO membership with EU membership - and 
individual national visa regimes. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶10. (SBU) While politicians continue to boast about high public 
support for NATO, there are clearly some holes in the dike.  As 
mentioned in reftel, Albanians are becoming increasingly 
dissatisfied with domestic policies that they blame for higher 
prices and an electricity crisis that for the moment is under 
control, but that could flare up again anytime.  If economic 
prosperity immediately following a NATO invitation does not happen, 
as may well be the case, the public could become disillusioned with 
the GOA quickly.  Furthermore, it is a general consensus among many 
Albanians that NATO brings security and stability to Albania, 
furthering a vision of democracy and freedom.  However, few seem to 
comprehend that there is a line to toe after the Bucharest Summit. 
NATO membership, and essentially the stability it can eventually 
provide for Albania, is not achieved by simply accepting an 
invitation, but by continuing reforms and integration of NATO 
security standards. 
 
WITHERS