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P 101118Z MAR 08
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UNCLAS TEL AVIV 000545 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR NEA, NEA/IPA, NEA/PPD 
 
WHITE HOUSE FOR PRESS OFFICE, SIT ROOM 
NSC FOR NEA STAFF 
 
SECDEF WASHDC FOR USDP/ASD-PA/ASD-ISA 
HQ USAF FOR XOXX 
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JERUSALEM ALSO ICD 
LONDON ALSO FOR HKANONA AND POL 
PARIS ALSO FOR POL 
ROME FOR MFO 
 
SIPDIS 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC KMDR IS
 
SUBJECT: ISRAEL MEDIA REACTION 
 
 
-------------------------------- 
SUBJECTS COVERED IN THIS REPORT: 
-------------------------------- 
 
Mideast 
 
------------------------- 
Key stories in the media: 
------------------------- 
 
Ha'aretz reported that the GOI has ordered the IDF to exercise 
restraint in Gaza, pursuant to what a senior government official 
termed new rules of the game.  The official credited these rules, 
under which Israel will not attack as long as Hamas does not fire at 
Israel, with the recent lull in violence. Yet at the same time, he 
charged, they completely contradict last week's cabinet decision, 
which stated that Israel should keep up the military pressure on 
Hamas.  (Yediot reported that Hamas has committed itself to 10 days 
of quiet.  The Jerusalem Post reported that on Sunday Hamas denied 
that it had reached an understanding with Israel on a truce or 
period of calm, but that it confirmed that Egypt was playing a role 
in trying to achieve a cease-fire.)  The volume of rocket fire from 
Gaza has declined sharply in recent days. The IDF, for its part, has 
withdrawn all ground troops from the strip and has halted aerial 
assaults.  Ha'aretz reported that the government official stressed 
that there is no formal agreement with Hamas, but rather unofficial 
rules that were formulated in secret during Secretary of State 
Condoleezza Rice's visit last week.  Rice apparently relayed a 
proposal for resuming the lull that Hamas had transmitted via Egypt, 
and on her departure last Wednesday, PM Ehud Olmert responded 
publicly, saying: "If they don't fire Qassam rockets at us, we won't 
attack in Gaza."  Ha'aretz quoted a military source as saying that 
while the rules of engagement in Gaza have not officially been 
altered, the "general trend was made clear to us.  For now, we are 
not really fighting Hamas.  There is restraint, even if undeclared. 
Where things are really heading, we'll know only later."  The senior 
government official was quoted as saying that in effect, the 
unofficial ground rules covered three possible scenarios: If the 
rocket fire stops completely, so will IDF operations in Gaza; if 
Palestinians fire only at Sderot and other communities near Gaza, 
Israel will respond primarily with aerial assault; if rockets hit 
Ashkelon, Israel will respond with ground operations like last 
week's, in which over 100 Palestinians were killed. 
 
All media cited assessments on the strategic situation facing Israel 
in 2008 that were given to the cabinet on Sunday by representatives 
from the Mossad, IDF Intelligence (MI), the Shin Bet, and Israel 
National Police.  The heads of the Mossad and MI were quoted as 
saying that Iran will likely reach the tipping point in late 2009 or 
early 2010.  The intelligence community raised a scenario according 
to which an escalation in violence in Gaza could lead to a Hizbullah 
attack in the North.  While Yediot cited the Mossad's belief that 
Syria is not willing to dismantle its links with Iran, even if 
Israel commits itself to with drawing from the entire Golan, MI 
assessed that disengaging Syria from the "axis of evil" depends on 
Israel relinquishing the Golan for the sake of the peace process. 
Foreign Ministry representatives were quoted as saying that the U.S. 
was suffering from a declining status in the Middle East, and that 
this was causing an increase in the maneuverability of other players 
in the region, including radical ones.  However, they were quoted as 
saying, these radical forces were deterred by Israel, worried by its 
strength, and concerned by the force it could use.  This, the 
officials were quoted as saying, prevented them from acting with all 
their might. 
 
Leading media quoted the Housing Ministry as saying on Sunday that 
PM Olmert has approved construction of an estimated 750 new homes in 
the West Bank settlement of Givat Ze'ev.  The project approved for 
the settlement's Agan Ayelot neighborhood drew criticism from the PA 
over Israel's commitment to the peace process.  Ha'aretz quoted Mark 
Regev, the PM's spokesman, as saying that the project had already 
been approved by previous governments and abided by the state's 
current policy on construction in large settlement blocks that "will 
remain a part of Israel in any final status agreement."  Israel 
Radio reported that Shas had threatened to quit the government if 
the project would have been blocked. 
 
The media reported that on Sunday FM Tzipi Livni left for a visit to 
Washington during which she will meet with Secretary Rice, National 
Security Adviser Steve Hadley, and members of Congress. 
 
Leading media reported that Republican presidential candidate 
Senator John McCain may come to Israel next week as a member of a 
visiting CODEL.  Ha'aretz quoted GOI sources as saying that it is 
not yet certain that McCain will be part of the delegation.  If he 
does come, he will meet with PM Olmert, Defense Minister Ehud Barak, 
and FM Tzipi Livni.  It is believed McCain would want such a visit 
in order to strengthen his ties to the American Jewish community 
ahead of the presidential elections.  Maariv cited The Washington 
Post as saying that Senator Barack Obama's team is also considering 
a visit to Israel. 
All media reported that on Sunday Rabbi Ya'acov Shapira, head of the 
Mercaz Harav Yeshiva in Jerusalem, called to replace the "hollow" 
government and to continue building in all parts of the Land of 
Israel (including the territories).  Earlier on Sunday dozens and 
educators verbally assaulted the Education Minister as she left 
Mercaz Harav after visiting the high school.  Shouts of "murderer," 
"criminal," and "traitor" were hurled at her.  The media also 
reported that the yeshiva rejected PM Olmert's offer of a condolence 
visit.  Major media reported that Hamas unofficially hinted on 
Sunday that it was behind the attack.  Over the weekend media quoted 
Palestinian sources as saying that Hamas and Hizbullah helped carry 
out the attack.  All media reported that a number of stone-throwing 
incidents were recorded over the weekend on major roads near Israeli 
Arab towns. 
 
Leading media displayed the picture of billboards exhibited 
throughout Tehran that represent Defense Minister Barak, Mossad 
Director Meir Dagan, and MI Intelligence head Amos Yadlin as targets 
to be eliminated.  The Iranian government is offering $1 million for 
their heads. 
 
On Sunday The Jerusalem Post quoted Construction and Housing 
Minister Ze'ev Boim, who is a leading candidate to become the next 
ambassador to the UN, as saying on Saturday that Israel should form 
an international coalition to push for the removal of Mohamed 
ElBaradei as head of the IAEA. 
 
Ha'aretz reported that the breakaway Turkish Republic of Northern 
Cyprus will open a trade office in Israel in the coming weeks, with 
the assistance of the law office of Dov Weisglass, the former bureau 
chief of PM Ariel Sharon.  The office will hold no diplomatic status 
and aims to further economic dealings between Israel and northern 
Cyprus.  The Foreign Ministry has kept a low profile on the matter, 
trying to avoid a confrontation with Greece and Cyprus on the one 
hand and Turkey on the other.  Most Israeli business in the North 
Cyprus revolves around real estate and tourism, including 
investments in casinos. 
 
The media reported that President Shimon Peres will leave today for 
a five-day visit to France.  Ha'aretz noted that French President 
Nicolas Sarkozy made Peres his first official visitor. 
 
Maariv reported that Palestinians from abroad will visit the country 
for trips equivalent to the "birthright israel" programs. 
 
Leading media reported that the emblematic Polgat textile factory in 
Kiryat Gat will close its doors next month. 
 
Ha'aretz reviewed the results of a poll conducted by Brandeis 
University's Steinhardt Social Research Institute, which found that 
the attitude of U.S. Jewry to Israel has not changed over the past 
decade. 
 
-------- 
Mideast: 
-------- 
 
Summary: 
-------- 
 
Palestinian affairs correspondent Avi Issacharoff and Military 
correspondent Amos Harel wrote on page one of the independent, 
left-leaning Ha'aretz: "The relative calm could be considered to be 
a confidence-building measure that would enable Egypt to step up its 
efforts to reach a longer-term agreement." 
 
Ha'aretz editorialized: "The terror attack in Jerusalem and the 
rejoicing it prompted among the Palestinian public threaten the 
chance of attaining [the goals of Annapolis]." 
 
Military correspondent Alex Fishman wrote on page one of the 
mass-circulation, pluralist Yediot Aharonot: "The timing [of the 
attack on the yeshiva] that was chosen and the location that was 
chosen were geared to have ignited a pyre on the West Bank and to 
have lit a third Intifada that would rage in tandem with the 
fighting in the Gaza Strip. 
 
Defense commentator Amir Oren wrote in Ha'aretz: "The tough 
decisions will be left to the next president, but already now it is 
clear that there will not be a hasty retreat from the Middle East. 
McCain is against that, Clinton is not far from him in her views, 
and Obama will be educated.  Iran is the new Iraq." 
 
Block Quotes: 
------------- 
 
¶I.  "A Lull in Gaza?" 
 
Palestinian affairs correspondent Avi Issacharoff and Military 
correspondent Amos Harel wrote on page one of the independent, 
left-leaning Ha'aretz (3/10): "The statistics are not lying: Since 
last Thursday, there has been a lull in the fighting in the Gaza 
Strip. It is quite certain that this will be a short break.... The 
relative calm could be considered to be a confidence-building 
measure that would enable Egypt to step up its efforts to reach a 
longer-term agreement.  It will also make it difficult for Israel to 
initiate a new series of attacks targeting Hamas in the Strip.... 
Hamas is demanding, as a prerequisite for a deal, the opening of the 
border crossings, especially the one at Rafah.  Reaching agreement 
on this matter, one that will be acceptable to both Israel and 
Hamas, is a very difficult thing to do.... IDF sources say that the 
person who really makes the decisions in Hamas has for some time not 
been Haniyeh, nor even Khaled Mashal, the group's politburo chief in 
Damascus. They say that Ahmed Jabari, the head of the military wing 
of the group, rules. Jabari is the one who led the breach of the 
border wall at the Philadelphi route in Rafah late in January, in 
spite of reservations from Mashal.  Jabari's stance is hard and 
uncompromising.  It is unlikely he will be willing to make any 
ideological concessions." 
 
II.  "Blood, Religion, and Negotiations" 
 
Ha'aretz editorialized (3/9): "From the start, the Annapolis process 
came across as overly ambitious and sterile -- a drive to reach an 
agreement within a year, only to shelve it for when the need arises. 
 Its success depends on several conditions coalescing: a formula 
acceptable to the Israeli government and Palestinian Authority 
leadership, Mahmoud Abbas confronting Hamas and the rest of the 
rejectionist organizations, and public opinion on both sides 
mobilizing in support of the agreement and against its enemies.  The 
terror attack in Jerusalem and the rejoicing it prompted among the 
Palestinian public threaten the chance of attaining these 
conditions.  On top of this is Abbas's helplessness, a loss of 
support for the Kadima-Labor government, and the growing strength of 
the radical right in Israel, which opposes a compromise on 
Jerusalem.  This is the final chance for a combined political and 
military effort, for peace, and against its enemies.  Without such 
action now, the power of the moderate nationalists will wane, the 
religious zealots will grow stronger, and the conflict will become 
eternal." 
 
III.  "The Goal: A Third Intifada" 
 
Military correspondent Alex Fishman wrote on page one of the 
mass-circulation, pluralist Yediot Aharonot (3/9): "This wasn't a 
self-sacrifice operation that was decided on spontaneously.  Nor was 
it an outburst of emotions and frustration felt by a Palestinian 
resident of Israel and fueled by the painful images out of Gaza. 
 
The terror attack at the Mercaz Harav Yeshiva, so believe Israeli 
security officials, was planned and prepared prior to the most 
recent round of violence in the Gaza Strip.  It was what is known as 
a 'locked and loaded terror attack.' -- to wit, a terror attack that 
was fully prepared and was only awaiting orders to be set in motion. 
 Standing behind the murderer was a group that selected the time and 
the location scrupulously.  The security establishment has not 
dismissed the notion that this group was handled by Hizbullah in 
Lebanon.  The timing that was chosen and the location that was 
chosen were geared to have ignited a pyre on the West Bank and to 
have lit a third Intifada that would rage in tandem with the 
fighting in the Gaza Strip.  That is one of the most salient 
interests of Hamas in Gaza and, to no lesser an extent, of 
Hizbullah.  In that sense, and only in that sense, there was no 
surprise here.  Prior to the terror attack, senior military 
officials said they believed Hamas would try to export the clashes 
to the West Bank.  The target that was chosen for the terror attack 
is not merely a religious institution, on which, naturally enough, 
any attack is potentially inflammatory. At issue is an institute of 
the religious Zionist movement, which could 'ensure' the planners of 
the terror attack that there would be a wave of revenge attacks in 
the territories that would cause the situation on the West Bank to 
devolve into chaos.... This terror attack is a wake-up call for all 
the branches of [Israel's] defense establishment." 
 
 
 
 
IV.  "The Road to Gaza Runs through Tehran" 
 
Defense commentator Amir Oren wrote in Ha'aretz (3/10): "The 
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Michael Mullen, has 
already stated that one of his tasks is to 'educate' the civilian 
leaders.  In a democracy, the decision is of course made by the 
politicians, but it is the army's duty to shed light on matters by 
providing the latter with data, explaining significances and 
recommending alternatives.  Mullen's message is probably aimed at 
the contenders for the Democratic Party presidential nomination -- 
Hillary Clinton and, more specifically, Barack Obama -- far more 
than at the Republican candidate, John McCain.  As a member of the 
Senate Armed Services Committee, Clinton acquired a modicum of 
experience in security affairs; Obama is a complete novice in this 
regard.  McCain, as a retired colonel and as a legislator, is also 
close in his approach to that of the senior officer corps.  The 
tough decisions will be left to the next president, but already now 
it is clear that there will not be a hasty retreat from the Middle 
East.  McCain is against that, Clinton is not far from him in her 
views, and Obama will be educated.  Iran is the new Iraq..... What 
is now in the cards is a wait of another year or more, until the 
next U.S. administration has stabilized, while the internal 
developments in Iran continue to be monitored and a coordinated 
American-Israeli posture is worked out." 
 
JONES