VZCZCXRO1251
OO RUEHCN RUEHGH
DE RUEHIN #0407/01 0811021
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 211021Z MAR 08
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8487
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 8040
RUEHGH/AMCONSUL SHANGHAI 1920
RUEHCN/AMCONSUL CHENGDU 2545
RUEHSH/AMCONSUL SHENYANG 6515
RUEHGZ/AMCONSUL GUANGZHOU 1105
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 9296

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 000407 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR AIT/W, EAP/TC, INR/EAP 
 
FROM AIT KAOHSIUNG BRANCH OFFICE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN SOUTHERN TAIWAN:  DPP, KMT SEE 
CLOSE FIGHT IN KAOHSIUNG 
 
REF: Taipei 000371 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED, PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  In separate meetings on March 19 with the 
Director, DPP Kaohsiung County Magistrate Yang Chiu-Hsing insisted 
that the DPP had surged into the lead in this hotly-contested 
county, but KMT County Chair Liu Ching-tien claimed the race was 
nearly even.  Yang believed that the "one-China market" had hit a 
nerve with county voters.  In contrast, Liu suggested that centrist 
voters could see through DPP criticisms.  While Yang acknowledged 
that President Chen had weighed down DPP prospects, Liu stressed 
that county voters were tired of the lethargic economy and 
corruption under Chen.  This January, the KMT crept close to the DPP 
in Kaohsiung County's legislative election party vote.  An appeal to 
centrists, the KMT hopes, will keep Hsieh from pulling away in this 
key southern battleground.  End Summary. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) On a March 19 trip to southern Taiwan to discuss Taiwan's 
elections, Director Young met separately with Kaohsiung County 
Magistrate Yang Chiu-Hsing and Kaohsiung County KMT Chairman Liu 
Ching-tien.  One of southern Taiwan's key election battlegrounds, 
Kaohsiung County went decisively for President Chen in 2004 but lost 
three of its four seats to the KMT in the January 2008 Legislative 
Yuan (LY) election.  Magistrate Yang, popular among county voters 
for his clean reputation and environmental protection initiatives, 
supported Frank Hsieh's running mate Su Tseng-chang during the DPP 
primaries but has campaigned actively for Hsieh in the general 
election.  Liu is a longtime Kaohsiung County KMT stalwart, who is 
reportedly working pro-bono for the KMT due to the local party's 
financial difficulties. 
 
DPP's Yang:  Hsieh Gaining Momentum 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU) On Ma Ying-jeou's alleged green card, Yang suggested that 
if Ma was lying about his green card, he might even have U.S. 
citizenship.  In fact, Yang noted, Ma has sued Yang for making that 
charge at the DPP's Kaohsiung rally on March 16.  Accusing the media 
of treading lightly on Ma's credibility problem, Yang suggested that 
voters were holding the DPP to a higher standard than the KMT. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) While Hsieh's political fortunes were lagging a week ago, 
Yang confided, the DPP's "overwhelming" Kaohsiung rally on March 16 
had turned momentum in Hsieh's favor.  He conceded that Ma would win 
northern Taiwan but predicted Hsieh would prevail in the south, 
albeit with a margin smaller than in 2004.  The new Kaohsiung 
subway, which to date had attracted two million satisfied riders, 
would also boost Hsieh's campaign.  If centrist voters continued to 
trend towards the DPP, Yang estimated the DPP would win Kaohsiung 
County by at least 100,000 votes. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Yang stressed that four issues were resonating with 
grass-roots voters:  the one-China market, the imbroglio at Frank 
Hsieh campaign headquarters in Taipei, Ma's statements on eventual 
unification with China, and Ma's green card controversy.  The DPP 
found the one-China market issue particularly effective, he stated, 
since voters knew such a market was completely unrealistic.  Panning 
Ma's comparison of the concept to the EU, Yang explained that China 
had a population 60 times bigger than Taiwan's, a balance which bore 
no resemblance to the EU's common market of roughly similar states. 
Yang believed the UN referendum could still help the DPP, but only 
President Chen was talking it up. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Responding to the Director's comments on pent up Tibetan 
frustration in China, Yang mentioned that during a 1998 visit to 
Beijing, he noticed poor people scavenging for food around a temple 
complex.  Tibet showed China's "feudal thinking," he said, but 
Chinese leaders would probably be less harsh with places like Hong 
Kong and Macau in an effort to appeal to Taiwan.  He called Ma's 
China policy inconsistent, contrasting Ma's past support for both 
sides resolving the cross-strait problem with his current position 
exhorting Taiwan's people to decide Taiwan's future. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Yang agreed with the Director's analysis of the challenge 
Hsieh faced in trying to distinguish himself from President Chen. 
The media's distortion of Chen's statements had made the task even 
more difficult, as swing voters had turned away from Chen.  He 
suggested that Chen's "straightforward" personality made swing 
voters uneasy, so unless Hsieh distanced himself from Chen, he would 
 
TAIPEI 00000407  002 OF 003 
 
 
lose.  In the January 2008 Legislative election, Chen's statements 
about martial law probably cost the DPP seven to eight percent 
support.  Nevertheless, Chen's charisma was still appealing to 
deep-Green voters, so Hsieh could not separate himself from Chen 
entirely.  Yang noticed that recently Chen had been unusually low 
key, still appearing in public but not making any speeches.  In the 
last days before the election, this would be sufficient to help 
Hsieh consolidate the DPP's base. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Asked to identify the DPP's future generation of political 
leaders, Yang appeared briefly stumped.  He noted only that he 
planned to retire at the age of 52 when his term ended in 2009 and 
that one potential leader, Tainan County magistrate Su Huang Chih, 
was the same age.  He stressed that one of the most important 
leadership qualities was experience, a prerequisite for any 
President. 
 
KMT's Liu:  KMT Staying Close in South 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Kaohsiung County KMT Chairman Liu was certain that 
grass-roots yearning for change would help the KMT improve on its 
2004 performance.  While the KMT may still lose the county, the gap 
could shrink to around 50,000 votes.  The lagging economy was the 
main issue and could work to the KMT's advantage.  Voters were tired 
of the DPP's economic mismanagement and corruption over the last 
eight years and punished the DPP in the January 2008 legislative 
elections.  Two months later, KMT morale is still high.  He 
attributed the KMT's legislative election success in Kaohsiung 
County to high-quality candidates, which convinced him that voters 
were looking for a candidate with a good image. 
 
¶10.  (SBU) Liu described Ma's "long stay" campaign in the county as 
beneficial for both the KMT's legislative and Presidential 
campaigns.  If Ma wins the Presidency, Liu stated, the "long stay" 
strategy would be a primary reason.  Ma's "long stay" effort showed 
a knack for retail politics, which previous KMT presidential 
candidates lacked.  His stays excited the grass roots, drew big 
crowds, and strengthened party unity, as Wang Jin-pyng and other 
party leaders helped to arrange his itineraries. 
 
¶11.  (SBU) Liu underscored that swing voters, which made up 
approximately twenty percent of Kaohsiung County's electorate, would 
decide the election there.  He insisted that issues like concern 
over one-Party rule would not significantly affect swing voters, as 
they had clear judgment.  He called the DPP "hypocritical" on 
one-Party rule, since the DPP under President Chen was urging voters 
just a few years ago to give him and the DPP a Legislative Yuan 
majority.  The voters gave the KMT its legislative majority, he 
pointed out, and the voters, not the KMT, would decide who should 
get the Presidency. 
 
¶12.  (SBU) On the one-China market, Liu decried DPP distortions and 
defended the KMT's approach.  Ma and Siew's goal was to expand 
Taiwan's market throughout the world, not just China.  The DPP was 
conflicted, he explained, since it knew deeper economic ties with 
China were unavoidable but needed the one-China market controversy 
to generate political support.  He feared the DPP's manipulation 
would confuse centrist voters and increase fear of China.  The Tibet 
situation would only reinforce this fear, since voters would turn 
against China's bullying. 
 
¶13.  (SBU) Liu noted that 1.4 million young people would vote for 
President for the first time.  In 2004, young voters strongly 
supported the DPP, but this year, they were leaning towards Ma. 
Their main concern was their future, and Ma's economic policies 
offered them the most hope.  By contrast, they felt the DPP had no 
economic vision over the last eight years.  In fact, Liu explained, 
Ma and Hsieh's economic policies were quite similar, but the KMT 
would be more effective at implementing them. 
 
¶14.  (SBU) Since bad weather was more likely to deter 
less-enthusiastic pan-Blue voters, Liu hoped for good weather on 
election day.  He noted that turnout in Kaohsiung Country in 2004 
was 81.6 percent, and this year, it would probably reach 75-80 
percent.  He emphasized that his prediction that the KMT would come 
close in Kaohsiung County was actually a conservative estimate, 
adding that the KMT was on guard against any DPP "dirty tricks" in 
the election's final days. 
 
 
TAIPEI 00000407  003 OF 003 
 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶15.  (SBU) With nearly 800,000 eligible voters, Kaohsiung County is 
southern Taiwan's second biggest voting area.  In 2004, Chen whipped 
his opponent in the county by almost 17 percent and 122,000 votes, 
but none of AIT/K's contacts believes Hsieh will approach that 
figure on Saturday.  While most of our interlocutors share 
Magistrate Yang's view that the one-China market and other 
late-in-the-game issues have consolidated the DPP's southern base 
(reftel), neither Yang nor the KMT's Liu see the county's centrist 
voters decisively shifting to the DPP.  Since the KMT nearly drew 
even with the DPP in the county's 2008 Legislative Yuan party-vote 
tally, our local KMT contacts hold out hope that a strong focus on 
the county's undecided centrist voters will be enough to keep Hsieh 
from duplicating Chen's big win in this key southern battleground. 
 
 
CASTRO 
 
YOUNG