VZCZCXRO6675
OO RUEHCN RUEHGH
DE RUEHIN #0371/01 0771029
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 171029Z MAR 08
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8385
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 7954
RUEHGH/AMCONSUL SHANGHAI 1842
RUEHCN/AMCONSUL CHENGDU 2467
RUEHSH/AMCONSUL SHENYANG 6437
RUEHGZ/AMCONSUL GUANGZHOU 1027
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 9208

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 000371 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR AIT/W, EAP/TC, INR/EAP 
 
FROM AIT KAOHSIUNG BRANCH OFFICE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT:  TAIWAN ELECTIONS: DPP SCRAMBLING TO CONSOLIDATE SOUTHERN 
SUPPORT 
 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED, PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  Still playing catch up, DPP presidential 
candidate Frank Hsieh is scrambling to consolidate his southern 
base, the cornerstone of any pan-Green candidate's electoral 
support.  His latest attacks on KMT candidate Ma Ying-jeou's 
cross-Strait economic policies have hit a sweet spot, but may not be 
resonating beyond traditional deep-Green areas in the south. 
Raising questions about Ma's credibility and highlighting Hsieh's 
management skills have marginally helped Hsieh, but centrist voters 
also do not appear to be moving decisively in the DPP's favor.  With 
memories of the DPP's 2004 come-from-behind effort still fresh, KMT 
stalwarts are pulling out all the stops in the south.  The KMT has 
been carpeting the region with pro-KMT Taiwanese broadcasts and will 
dispatch Ma to the south on March 16 for a large-scale evening 
rally.  Meanwhile, local DPP officials are lamenting both Hsieh's 
chances and the state of party unity, while the pan-Green's junior 
partner, the Taiwan Solidarity Union, remains on the sidelines.  If 
recent voting trends hold, Hsieh is likely to win the south, but may 
not do so by a large enough margin to offset expected losses in the 
north.  End summary. 
 
SOUTHERN STRATEGY REDUX 
----------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) With recent public opinion polls showing DPP Presidential 
candidate Frank Hsieh continuing to lag behind KMT candidate Ma 
Ying-Jeou island wide, the DPP campaign is re-doubling its efforts 
in southern Taiwan, the DPP's traditional heartland.  Hsieh needs to 
win the south by a large margin to offset expected losses in the 
north.  In 2004, southern Taiwan helped secure President Chen's 
re-election triumph, thanks to Chen's big majorities in his hometown 
Tainan as well as in populous Kaohsiung, Pingtung and Chiayi.  With 
Hsieh still reaping southern support from his 1998-2005 tenure as 
Kaohsiung mayor and his DPP running mate Su Tseng-Chang fondly 
remembered from his stint as Pingtung county chief, the DPP hopes to 
replicate, even improve upon, its 2004 performance in the south. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) However, President Chen's rocky second term and a listless 
economy in rural and heavy industrial areas which comprise large 
areas of the south have dented the DPP's popularity there and 
hindered the DPP's efforts to energize its core voters. 
Furthermore, Ma has focused on trying to build support in the south 
by campaigning extensively there and going on "long stays," which 
some polls show boosted Ma's popularity.  The KMT's January 2008 
Legislative Yuan elections landslide hinted at further challenges 
for the DPP in the south, with the KMT making inroads among voters 
in Kaohsiung and Chiayi, while many disaffected southern deep-Green 
voters opted to stay home. 
 
THREE-PART HARMONY 
------------------ 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Throughout the fall of 2007, Hsieh's campaign failed to 
ignite the same degree of passion that the south's deep-Green voters 
displayed for Chen in 2000 and 2004.  Although DPP rank-and-file 
were initially critical of Hsieh's lackluster campaigning, they tell 
us that recently Hsieh's focus on the dangers of Ma's "one-China 
market," attacks on Ma's credibility, and emphasis on Hsieh's 
experience as Kaohsiung mayor have found resonance with many 
southern voters.  In the campaign's final week, the DPP plans to 
press these three themes aggressively at major rallies on March 16 
and continuing up to election day. 
 
ONE-CHINA MARKET BLUES 
---------------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) The "One-China Market" issue has resonated most loudly in 
the south and allowed the DPP to mobilize southern deep-Green 
voters, particularly in areas with labor-intensive industries, 
fishing and agricultural production.  In Kaohsiung, large DPP 
banners have been appearing throughout the city, with catchy slogans 
such as "Safeguard our Jobs; oppose the One-China Market." 
Pro-Green underground radio stations, highly influential across the 
rural south, have gleefully picked up the drumbeat, charging 
sensationally that the "One-China Market" will "deprive men of jobs, 
take husbands away from women and force children to become military 
conscripts in Heilongjiang." 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Nevertheless, local contacts tell us that although the 
 
TAIPEI 00000371  002 OF 003 
 
 
"one-China market" attacks have dented Ma in the south, its primary 
effect remains limited to boosting Hsieh's popularity among the 
region's core deep-Green constituency.  Most of our interlocutors 
agree that angst about the "one-China market" will help the DPP 
mobilize its southern base and stimulate voter turnout in the south, 
but is not sufficient enough to bring wavering southern light-Green 
voters back into the fold, convince them to show up in large numbers 
at the polls on election day, and turn the region's centrist voters 
towards the DPP.  Without something more, they stress, Hsieh will be 
hard pressed to duplicate President Chen's crucial winning margins 
in the south. 
 
MA'S GREEN CARD VS. HSIEH'S SUBWAY 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU) DPP campaigners in the south are still pursuing an earlier 
line of attack based on Ma's lingering green-card controversy, 
although the Central Election Commission's recent announcement that 
Ma does not have U.S. citizenship has blunted these attacks.  A 
Kaohsiung City Council contact told AIT/K on March 13 that internal 
DPP polling in the south revealed no significant decline in Ma's 
southern support over the green card issue.  As a result, he 
explained, the DPP has shifted the focus of its attack away from 
Ma's nationality towards his credibility, consistency and crisis 
management skills.  Nevertheless, our DPP contacts believe that Ma's 
inability to shake off completely the green card affair leaves him 
open to questioning his "Taiwan-first" credentials, a fundamental 
theme among the south's identity-conscious deep-Green constituency. 
 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Meanwhile, local DPP officials hope that highlighting 
Hsieh's achievements as Kaohsiung mayor will contrast favorably with 
Ma's handling of his green card matter.  Local Kaohsiung 
commentators largely agreed that the Kaohsiung subway's long-awaited 
March 10 opening was a boon to Hsieh, who initiated the project and 
maneuvered it through a spate of early controversies.  Although the 
KMT accused Hsieh of financial impropriety durin the subway's 
construction, local DPP officials prominently credited Hsieh's role 
during the subway's formal opening day, when more than 200,000 
riders sampled the gleaming new system.  Nevertheless, one local KMT 
contact predicted that Hsieh's benefit from the subway opening would 
be short lived and suggested that the issue would not reverberate 
beyond Kaohsiung, which itself remained almost evenly divided 
between pan-Green and pan-Blue voters. 
 
KMT COUNTERATTACK - IN TAIWANESE 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Sensing the effect of stepped up DPP attacks in the south 
and wary of the DPP's potential to close strongly, local KMT 
officials are fighting back.  Although still unable to break the 
phalanx of pro-Green underground radio stations, the KMT has bought 
up large chunks of time on legal local radio stations to rebut DPP 
charges.  The broadcasts are invariably in Taiwanese and enlist 
prominent national and local KMT politicians.  One ad features the 
voice of Ma's running mate and Chiayi-native Vincent Siew, who 
laments the DPP's "distortion" of KMT economic policy and highlights 
the KMT's promise to revive Taiwan's economy.  Another ad has local 
KMT City Councilor Wang Ling-Chiao asserting that ongoing DPP rule 
will accelerate economic decline, "forcing more husbands to leave 
their wives to look for work abroad." 
 
¶10.  (SBU) To combat the proliferation of local DPP banners opposing 
the "one-China market" in Kaohsiung, the KMT has put up its own 
billboards saying "Ma will NEVER import labor from China."  In 
Kaohsiung County, local KMT factions have banded to together to 
counter the "one-China market" charges.  In the south's rural areas, 
the KMT has deployed fleets of small vehicles armed with megaphones 
blaring loud rebuttals in Taiwanese.  Furthermore, Ma's wife has 
entered the south's campaign arena for the first time, pressing the 
flesh on March 13 at one of Kaohsiung's largest night markets.  The 
KMT's largest evening rally on March 16 is planned for Kaohsiung and 
will feature Ma and some of the KMT leadership. 
 
PAN-GREEN FRAYING IN THE SOUTH 
------------------------------ 
 
¶11.  (SBU) Local DPP contacts continue to paint the Hsieh campaign 
in the best light, but most acknowledge the likelihood Hsieh will 
lose.  The Pingtung County magistrate told AIT/K Chief on March 11 
 
TAIPEI 00000371  003 OF 003 
 
 
that while the DPP ticket will hold the line in traditionally 
Green-leaning Pingtung County, he was pessimistic about Hsieh's 
prospects overall.  Some of our DPP contacts even suggest that Hsieh 
may lose Kaohsiung City, and even if he wins Kaohsiung, the margin 
will be razor thin.  Recently, the previously DPP-leaning Kaohsiung 
Teacher's Association announced it would support Ma.  In a March 14 
news interview, Kaohsiung mayor Chen Chu acknowledged that unlike 
2004, DPP factional infighting, alleged Chen family corruption, a 
sluggish economy, and internal pan-Green disputes with the Taiwan 
Solidarity Union (TSU) were hobbling Hsieh's southern campaign 
effort. 
 
¶12.  (SBU) Southern TSU officials tell us there is no indication 
that the national party will formally endorse Hsieh until after the 
March 16 rallies, if at all.  Prominent southern TSU legislator Lo 
Chi-Ming's recent defection from the TSU to the KMT was for personal 
gain, they emphasize, and not a sign of the TSU trending towards the 
KMT.  Most TSU rank and file in the south continue to campaign for 
Hsieh on their own and await a signal from TSU spiritual leader Lee 
Teng-Hui.  Some local academics say that Lee may in fact have helped 
Ma by saying that the "one-China market" would be unacceptable to 
Beijing because it implies a "state-to-state" arrangement. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶13.  (SBU) Hsieh is counting on winning big in the south to defeat 
Ma, but our contacts make clear the DPP may fall short.  Voting 
trends in the last few local elections suggest Hsieh will win less 
populous Tainan and Pingtung counties, but split the larger areas of 
Kaohsiung and Kaohsiung County.  Chiayi, a key swing area, also 
appears to be up for grabs.  The upcoming March 16 activities are 
perhaps Hsieh's last major opportunity to stir up southern 
enthusiasm and give supporters a reason to come out and vote on 
March 22. 
 
Castro 
 
Young