VZCZCXYZ0011
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHSO #0149 0801255
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 201255Z MAR 08 ZDK
FM AMCONSUL SAO PAULO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8077
INFO RHEHNSC/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHDC IMMEDIATE
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA PRIORITY 9211
RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO PRIORITY 8658
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC 3056

UNCLAS SAO PAULO 000149 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE INR/R/MR; IIP/R/MR; WHA/PD 
 
DEPT PASS USTR 
 
USDOC 4322/MAC/OLAC/JAFEE 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KMDR OPRC OIIP ETRD BR
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION:  IRAQ: FIFTH ANNIVERSARY OF THE U.S. 
INVASION; SAO PAULO 
 
 
¶1. "The Costs Of The Adventure" 
 
Liberal, largest national circulation daily Folha de S. Paulo 
editorialized (3/20): "The US invasion in Iraq was a humanitarian 
catastrophe and a political fiasco that placed the Pentagon in a 
situation without prospect of solution.  It has also been a 
financial disaster....  The bill totals today USD 600 billion and 
continues to increase.  According to Nobel Prize winner Joseph 
Stiglitz, the adventure may cost USD 4 trillion or more, depending 
on how long the occupation lasts.... The bill has helped the 
dollar's increasing devaluation, and this has made it difficult to 
fight the credit crisis in the US in addition to worsening its 
global consequences. Nothing indicates that the next US president, 
regardless of who he/she may be, will have a means to end the 
adventure. Barack Obama suggested that he might withdraw the troops 
by 2009.  This is of course the best scenario.  The problem is that 
in Iraq the best scenario never comes true." 
 
¶2. "Five Years Later, The US Has Nothing To Celebrate" 
 
Business-oriented Valor Economico editorialized (3/20): "Iraq was 
easy to occupy, but has become a hell to remain in, as the 4,000 
deaths and 30,000 injured among US troops show. The US has so far 
spent USD 500 billion in Iraq - the equivalent to one year of 
[Brazilian] GDP.... Stability means the end of violence, but it is 
far from happening.... Iraq is far from patterns of normalcy, even 
when considering the unstable Middle East.  Bush's policy was 
rejected around the world and even by the Americans.  The US 
presidential elections may change ways to reach peace in Iraq. 
Militarily, however, it is very unlikely that the US troops will 
leave that nation if Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton, who suggested 
a withdrawal in the short run, is elected. But it is certain that 
the US's presence in Iraq will be extended for many years more if 
the winner is John McCain. Bush's policy in Iraq was a bloody sample 
of the unilateral strategy dictated by the neoconservatives. His 
idea of transforming Iraq into a democratic showcase aimed at 
initiating changes towards that direction throughout the Middle East 
was an insane authoritarian farce." 
White