VZCZCXYZ0002
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHSN #0343/01 0782237
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 182237Z MAR 08
FM AMEMBASSY SAN SALVADOR
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9206
INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SAN SALVADOR 000343 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL ES KDEM
SUBJECT: NO SURPRISES AS AVILA WINS ARENA NOMINATION 
 
REF: A. SAN SALVADOR 101 
 
     ¶B. SAN SALVADOR 147 
     ¶C. SAN SALVADOR 238 
     ¶D. SAN SALVADOR 263 
 
¶1. (U) SUMMARY: On March 15, the National Republican Alliance 
Party (ARENA) selected Rodrigo Avila as its presidential 
candidate for the 2009 election.  Avila's selection had been 
widely anticipated, but his landslide win did little to 
mollify critics who claimed that the process was less than 
fair. We expect ARENA to unite behind Avila against Mauricio 
Funes, the FMLN candidate, in what promises to be a 
hard-fought contest. End Summary. 
 
---------------------- 
The Foregone Concluded 
---------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) As expected, the National Republican Alliance Party 
(ARENA) selected former National Civilian Police (PNC) 
Director Rodrigo Avila as its presidential candidate on March 
15, beating out Ana Vilma de Escobar and Luis Mario 
Rodriguez.  Party officials voted from all over the country, 
and when the votes were tallied by department, Avila walked 
away with all votes in six departments and the majority of 
votes in the other eight.  Avila also won 6.5 of 8 national 
sector votes, including ARENA's women's caucus, with the rest 
going to Rodriguez.  The consolidated vote totals were (of a 
total of 283) Avila 241.33, Rodriguez 41.33, and de Escobar 
.33. 
 
---------------------------------- 
Not So Gently Into That Good Night 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) Complaints about the selection process, rumblings of 
which have echoed for weeks (ref C), were still being heard 
on the eve of the vote. Some ARENA party members called for a 
secret vote to avoid party members being pressured into 
 
SIPDIS 
voting a certain way. (Note: ARENA's party rules specifically 
require a public vote with the aim of preventing candidate 
selection from occurring in smoke-filled back rooms. End 
Note.) 
 
¶4. (SBU) In the end, both losing candidates, Vice-President 
Ana Vilma de Escobar and Luis Mario Rodriguez accepted the 
results and congratulated Avila.  VP de Escobar did not go 
quietly, however, and after the vote publicly criticized what 
she said was manipulation of the process by Herbert Saca, a 
relative of the President and by ARENA's Departmental 
Director for San Salvador, Adolfo Torrez. Both had allegedly 
urged delegates not to vote for a woman; both denied the 
accusation.  Whether or not these accusations are true, the 
Avila candidacy and the selection process have some hallmarks 
of manipulation and management by President Saca, and as a 
result, there is a good deal of resentment in some sectors of 
the party. 
 
---------------------- 
FMLN Reaction is Muted 
---------------------- 
 
¶5. (U) The FMLN has already begun criticizing the Avila 
candidacy with what promises to be a central theme of the 
campaign, namely that an Avila presidency would simply be a 
continuation of Saca's administration and would be marked by 
the same "failed policies" of ARENA, especially on public 
security.  FMLN Deputy Sigfredo Reyes was quoted as saying 
that the party did not see Avila as much of a threat to 
Funes' candidacy. Funes himself has yet to comment publicly 
on the Avila nomination. 
 
------------------------------------- 
Avila Starts to Formulate his Message 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (U) In an interview with La Prensa Grafica, Avila laid out 
some of the themes of his candidacy.  In an attempt to begin 
the process of differentiating himself from President Saca, 
he said that it was important to bring new people into COENA 
and into the process of formulating a plan of government.  He 
also talked about reinvigorating what he called the historic 
project of ARENA and focusing on the issues that are 
important to all Salvadorans.  In response to a question 
about Mauricio Funes and his high favorables in recent 
polling, Avila admitted that "yes, he is a strong candidate, 
but I am also a very strong candidate." "Of course," he 
concluded, "this (campaign) is the greatest challenge of my 
life." 
 
¶7. (U) Avila told the El Mundo newspaper that he discounted 
the allegation that El Salvador's large business interests 
did not support his campaign.  He claimed that he received 
many votes from the business sector and that business 
interests would certainly unify behind him.  Private sector 
participation is critical, he said, in helping solve El 
Salvador's social problems.  The private sector is the 
largest generator of wealth, and entrepreneurs recognize that 
less poverty translates into more consumers. 
 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) The selection of Avila as the ARENA standard bearer 
surprised no one.  It did not, however, come without 
controversy, and post will be watching to see just how 
quickly ARENA closes ranks behind Avila.  Avila has already 
begun developing his message and attempting to counter the 
FMLN accusation that he represents the continuation of more 
of the same.  Both the FMLN and ARENA are waiting to see how 
the public reacts now that the election is Avila versus 
Funes.  The apparent failure of the smaller parties to 
present a viable candidate puts pressure on both candidates 
to focus their efforts on the very sizeable electoral 
"middle" that remains solidly uncommitted. End Comment. 
BUTLER