VZCZCXYZ0012
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHSN #0321/01 0741958
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 141958Z MAR 08
FM AMEMBASSY SAN SALVADOR
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9182
INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE
RUEHME/AMEMBASSY MEXICO 6688

C O N F I D E N T I A L SAN SALVADOR 000321 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR WHA/CEN JOHN FEELEY AND HILLARY THOMPSON 
DEPT FOR WHA/MEX 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/16/2017 
TAGS: PGOV PREL ES KDEM MX
SUBJECT: WHA/CEN DIRECTOR FEELEY VISIT TO EL SALVADOR 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Charles L. Glazer, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
¶1. (U) SUMMARY: From March 4-7, WHA/CEN Director John Feeley 
visited El Salvador as part of a regional visit focused on 
the Merida Initiative. During the visit, Feeley attended the 
Ambassador's speech to the American Chamber of Commerce in El 
Salvador, discussed the Merida Initiative with Deputy Foreign 
Minister Calix, and discussed Salvadoran electoral politics 
with prominent figures across the political spectrum. End 
Summary. 
 
¶2. (U) WHA/CEN Director John Feeley visited El Salvador March 
4-7 as part of a regional visit to discuss progress on the 
Merida initiative in Washington.  Feeley kicked off his visit 
by attending Ambassador Glazer's speech to the American 
Chamber of Commerce of El Salvador which focused on the need 
for the Salvadoran private sector to become more involved in 
working towards a solution to El Salvador's public security 
problems. 
 
¶3. (C) Feeley and PolCouns met with Deputy Foreign Minister 
Eduardo Calix on March 5.  Calix was accompanied by Nelson 
Amaya, Deputy Director General for Foreign Policy.  Calix, in 
his capacity as President Pro Tempore of SICA, welcomed 
Feeley's visit in order to clarify confusion that had emerged 
among several Central American countries about Plan Merida. 
Calix said the Central American countries had the impression 
that the regional security plan they had been developing in 
response to President Bush's request in March 2007 was 
somehow a different exercise than Plan Merida, which appeared 
to have a Central American component grafted on to a 
Mexico-centric proposal.  Feeley explained that in practice, 
the regional security plan and Plan Merida were - and had to 
be - the same thing, since there was no other mechanism on 
the horizon to respond to the Central American needs. 
Ironically, he said, Mexico feels like their initiative has 
been hijacked by the Central American countries, and vice 
versa. 
 
¶4. (C) Later on March 5, Feeley and Poloff met with Roberto 
Rubio-Fabian, director of the Fundacion Nacional para el 
Desarollo (FUNDE), a left-of-center research and development 
think-tank.  Rubio, an FMLN spokesman during the 1980's 
describes his current relationship with the FMLN as one "from 
a distance." He said that he was worried about ARENA since 
there were really no good candidates left in the running. 
What remained was to choose "the best of a bad group."  Rubio 
claimed that Rodrigo Avila, the former Director of the 
National Civilian Police and presumptive front-runner for the 
ARENA nomination, was not a good candidate and would be an 
even worse President.  An Avila candidacy "would be fatal" to 
ARENA.  The Salvadoran electorate is looking for change, 
Rubio added, and if an ARENA candidate merely offers "more of 
the same," he cannot win. 
 
¶5. (C) Rubio said Luis Mario Rodriguez would be a better 
candidate and referred to him as the "Obama" of the ARENA 
candidates saying that he offered the most tangible 
opportunity for change within the party.  Unlike the other 
candidates, Rodriguez would not be divisive.  He added that 
Rodriguez was gaining the support of the large business 
interests which wield very significant power in Salvadoran 
politics.  That said, he added that Saca was, in his opinion, 
the most powerful Salvadoran president in recent times, and 
that Avila was Saca's candidate. 
 
¶6. (C) The FMLN, according to Rubio, has begun the long 
process of change, for the better, in both its discourse and 
its beliefs.  He said that what remained to be seen about the 
Funes candidacy was whether Funes would shape the Frente or 
if the Frente would shape Funes.  How Funes would ultimately 
manage to connect with the FMLN is still very uncertain as is 
what the process will cost Funes in terms of his autonomy. 
Though Funes is a strong candidate, he still has significant 
hurdles to overcome including funding for his candidacy (the 
Venezuela factor) and how to gain the support of the upper 
class.  Rubio concluded the meeting by saying that ARENA 
could still wi if it managed to "get itself together" and 
avoi the temptation to resort to electoral fraud. He aded 
that corruption in President Saca's inner cirle could also 
damage the party. 
 
¶7. (C) Feeleyand EconCouns met March 5 with Alexander 
Segovia the economic advisor to FMLN presidential candidae 
Mauricio Funes.  Segovia is an Oxford-educated economist who 
has worked for USAID, IDB, UNDP andseveral other IOs and 
NGOs. Segovia is a member of an organization called "Friends 
of Mauricio" which aspires to be a "third way" in Salvadoran 
politics.  The group includes former ARENA party members, 
students, entrepreneurs, people who had never voted before 
and anyone interested in supporting Funes.  The group intends 
to build, what Segovia describes as significant support from 
Salvadorans at home and abroad into a social movement to act 
as a counterweight to both ARENA and, if needed, the old 
guard of the FMLN. 
 
¶8. (C) The death of Schafik Handal in 2006 was a turning 
point for the FMLN, according to Segovia.  He said that it 
brought the party closer together and that there is now a 
good, collegial relationship within the party.  The FMLN has 
given Funes plenty of autonomy.  Neither Segovia nor Funes is 
a member of the FMLN, but to satisfy Salvadoran 
Constitutional election requirements, the latter will have to 
join before the election.  When asked which of the ARENA 
pre-candidates the FMLN feared most, Segovia replied "none of 
them."  He thought that Avila had received the "dedazo" from 
Saca, but would not completely rule out Mario Luis Rodriguez 
because "he too is one of Saca's guys."  He thought that Vice 
President de Escobar had no chance whatsoever to gain the nod 
from ARENA on March 15.  Segovia said that according to their 
polls Avila had the better name recognition, but none of the 
ARENA pre-candidates polled particularly well.  The one 
candidate that he would have feared was Roberto Murray Meza, 
because in Segovia's opinion Murray Meza was the one person 
who could have united all of the capital power of ARENA. 
Segovia said he realizes that ARENA will fight a very hard 
campaign, no matter who becomes their candidate. 
 
¶9. (C) Segovia said that in the recent past Gerson Martinez 
authored the FMLN's economic policy.  He described Martinez 
as a moderate and that the two of them got along well.  This 
time, it is Segovia who is the chief drafter of the economic 
policy, but he will be working closely with Martinez.  They 
expect to have the economic plan completed by the end of 
April.  Dollarization, he said, is here to stay.  One of 
their other basic principles will be to keep CAFTA and strong 
relations with the USG, because of the strong trade, 
bilateral and familial relations between the two countries. 
He expects to expand FTAs to other countries as well and 
noted that the private sector plays a crucial role in the 
economy. 
 
¶10. (C) Segovia said they have met and will continue to meet 
with the private sector (he mentioned Roberto Kriete by name) 
and assured that there would be no nationalization and no 
expropriations under a Funes government.  Segovia said what 
they wanted was for everyone to be treated equally and to 
address the income disparity in the country.  He believes 
that the government has been used by a privileged few to 
protect their interests and keep the majority of wealth 
concentrated in a handful of powerful interests.  One of the 
things they will seek to accomplish early on in a Funes 
presidency is fiscal reform.  Segovia said he was aware of 
(and may have worked on) some of the fiscal reform programs 
that USAID had supported in Guatemala, and he would look to 
do something similar in El Salvador. 
 
¶11. (C) Finally, Feeley and PolCouns met with Salvador 
Samayoa, peace accords negotiator and member of the National 
Development Commission.  Samayoa reported on ongoing efforts 
between FDR, CD and PDC to form a coalition to back a single 
presidential candidate (Arturo Zablah) and a combined list 
for the national Assembly.  Samayoa said that in the ongoing 
ARENA contest, Rodrigo Avila had President Saca's support, 
but that Luis Mario Rodriguez could eventually come out on 
top if disgruntled business interests in ARENA managed to 
derail Avila's candidacy, something Samayoa saw as unlikely. 
GLAZER