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DE RUEHRA #0151/01 0801531
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R 201531Z MAR 08
FM AMEMBASSY RIGA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4806
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 RIGA 000151 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM LG
SUBJECT: Latvia to hold two signature drives in 30 days 
 
¶1. Summary. Two unrelated legislative amendments - constitutional 
amendments providing the rights to dismiss Saeima through a national 
referendum and amendments setting the level of a minimum pension at 
the official subsistence level - proposed by private groups have 
succeeded in collecting the required number of signatures (10,000) 
necessary to force the government to launch national signature 
drives on the proposals. If signature drives are successful (149,064 
Latvian citizens have to sign for each proposal) the proposed 
amendments will be forwarded to Saeima. If Saeima fails to enact the 
proposals, the proposed amendments will be put on national 
referenda. The signature drives will run for 30 days and finish on 
April 15.  End summary. 
Draft Constitutional amendments 
¶2. Constitutional amendments providing the public the right to 
initiate a process to dismiss the Saeima (currently, only the 
President can initiate Saeima's dismissal through national 
referendum) were developed by the Latvian Free Trade Union (LBAS) in 
response to the way the former government headed by Aigars Kalvitis 
(People's Party - TP) developed and adopted the 2008 state budget in 
October last year. LBAS announced that the then-government failed to 
fulfill the given promises regarding public sector employees' wages. 
"These amendments to the Constitution will eradicate from the 
country the politicians' tradition of thinking about the people only 
once every four years -- before elections," said chairman of the 
labor confederation Peteris Krigers. "And this will undoubtedly 
expand citizens' chances of more tightly controlling members of 
parliament, thereby guaranteeing a stronger civic society."  Though 
the Kalvitis' government stepped down after the state budget was 
adopted, LBAS continued collection of signatures required for 
launching the signature drive. 
¶3. In general, LBAS's proposal has received positive evaluations as 
expanding the scope of democratic rights of the people through 
direct political participation. However, some political experts warn 
of possible abuse, which could result in never-ending signature 
drives on Saeima's dismissal. Former President Vike-Freiberga has 
also expressed concern about the amendments. 
¶4. Stances of political forces are divided along the lines of their 
position in the current Saeima: all opposition parties support the 
draft amendments and one of the biggest, New Era (JL), is planning 
to get involved in a promotion campaign. Most of the parties in the 
ruling coalition are against the draft amendments. The head of the 
government Ivars Godmanis (LPP/LC) believes that "[O]ur Constitution 
has been drafted in a very thorough and balanced manner [and should 
not be changed]" and will not participate in the signature drive. 
His party (LPP/LC) and TP members are also against the proposed 
amendments. However, a leader of another coalition party, the Union 
of the Greens and Farmers (ZZS), Augusts Brigmanis announced that he 
supports the constitutional amendments proposed by LBAS. 
¶5. The response of ordinary citizens to the amendments is unclear. 
Though the government popularity ratings remain very low and the 
recent poll reveals that 28 percent of respondents claimed that they 
would sign for the draft amendments to the Constitution providing 
popular rights to dismiss Saeima, according to the data of Central 
Election Committee, only 20,681 citizens (about 13 percent of the 
required number) have signed over the first week of the signature 
drive. (Note: Traditionally, there is a surge in signatures in the 
final week of a collection drive. End note.) 
Draft amendments on the Law on Retirement Pensions 
 
¶6. A separate, but parallel signature collection effort is taking 
place on proposed amendments to the Law on Retirement Pensions that 
would ensure that all pensions are at least at the level of the 
official subsistence (poverty) level.  Currently, a third of all 
pensioners, receive less than 100 lats (aprox. 220 USD) a month and 
the poverty line is officially about 130 lats (aprox. 285 USD) a 
month.  The process was initiated by the Union of Pensioners last 
year, however, the remaining number of signatures necessary to 
qualify for the signature drive was collected in February this year 
when recently formed political force "Cita politika" (headed by 
former People's Party ministers Aigars Stokenbergs and Artis Pabriks 
announced that "poverty is the major issue in the country" and 
supported the petition drive. 
 
¶7. The proposed draft amendments are seen as ensuring a rise in the 
Pabriks/Stokenbergs party's poll numbers, but experts note that the 
proposal as drafted would provide only a short-term solution for 
pensioners' economic situation. The draft amendments are not 
supported by the ruling coalition. The other opposition parties have 
not clearly voiced their support for or opposition to the proposed 
amendments. Theoretically the authors of the proposal could count on 
the support of Latvia's pensioners, which constitute almost 28 
percent of the total population. 
 
¶8. Comments. Though there is no direct relation between the content 
of the two proposed amendments, both attempts are aimed at changing 
current key players in the political arena. New emerging political 
and social forces are using democratic, but rarely used, methods to 
find and strengthen their positions in the political market. 
However, the chances of success are rather low. Even though Latvian 
citizens claim to support the proposed amendments, most likely they 
will not participate in the signature drives, which come over the 
holiday period, because they feel deeply disillusioned in politics 
and their ability to influence political processes. If the necessary 
 
RIGA 00000151  002 OF 002 
 
 
signatures are collected, the possibility that either of the 
proposals would actually be adopted is even smaller since a majority 
in Saeima has said that they would not support the proposals and the 
standards for passage at a referendum are quite high. 
 
Larson