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INFO RUCNCAN/ALL CANADIAN POSTS COLLECTIVE

“C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 000394 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/18/2013 
TAGS: PGOV CA
SUBJECT: LIBERAL ""BOUNCE"" FROM BY-ELECTIONS, BUT NOT ENOUGH? 
 
REF: A. TORONTO 074 
     ¶B. 07 OTTAWA 2308 
 
Classified By: PolMinCouns Scott Bellard, reason 1.4 (d) 
 
¶1. (C) Summary: The Liberal Party won three of the four 
federal by-elections on March 17, which will bring high 
profile politicians Bob Rae and Martha Hall Findlay to 
Parliament to bolster the Liberal ""team.""  The Conservatives 
picked up a former Liberal seat in Saskatchewan, however. 
Low voter turn-out, while typical in by-elections, may also 
indicate that the Liberals' grassroots organization is not 
yet strong enough to support a possible spring federal 
election, despite the apparent enthusiasm of some Liberal 
leaders for another go at forming a government.  Policy took 
a back-seat to personality in the by-elections, suggesting 
that the ethical issues the Liberals have been championing 
did not find great resonance with voters.  End summary. 
 
LIBERAL VICTORIES, MOSTLY 
------------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) In the March 17 federal by-elections, the Liberal 
Party - as expected - retained control of three key urban 
ridings:  Toronto Centre; Willowdale (Toronto); and 
Vancouver-Quadra.  (Ref a described the Ontario election 
results, which will bring into Parliament two of Stephane 
Dion's former competitors in the December 2006 Liberal Party 
leadership race, Bob Rae and Martha Hall Findlay.)  However, 
the Conservative candidate won the previously Liberal riding 
of Desneth-Missinippi-Churchill River in northern 
Saskatchewan, despite Dion's personal pick of aboriginal 
candidate Joan Beatty.  Dion hailed the three wins as a 
""great day for Liberals"" and celebrated the addition of Rae 
and Hall Findlay to his ""dream team"" of high-profile MPs. 
 
¶3.  (U)  In the wake of the four by-elections, current party 
standings in the House of Commons are: 
--  Conservatives, 127; 
--  Liberals, 97; 
--  Bloc Quebecois, 48; 
--  New Democratic Party (NDP), 30; and, 
--  Independents, 4. 
 
In addition, there remain two vacancies, for which the 
government must announce dates for by-elections by June 2008. 
 
 
LOW TURNOUT 
----------- 
 
¶4. (U)  Voter turn-out was uniformly low, as is the norm for 
federal by-elections, running at only 27.9 percent in Toronto 
Centre, 24.4 percent in Willowdale, 33.9 percent in 
Vancouver-Quadra, and 25 percent in 
Desneth-Missinippi-Churchill River.  Notably, Liberal victor 
in Vancouver-Quadra Joyce Murray carried only 36.1 percent of 
the vote (with the Conservative candidate almost neck in neck 
at 35.5 percent), unlike the 2006 election, in which the 
Liberal victor in this riding had won 49.1 percent of the 
vote. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶5. (C)  The Liberals had been looking for a popular ""bounce"" 
from these by-elections, and Dion personally needed a solid 
win to put the Liberals' September 2007 by-election loss of 
the ""safe"" Montreal seat of Outremont behind him.  Winning 
even only three of the seats is still a psychological boost, 
although it may also have demonstrated weaknesses in the 
Liberals' grassroots organization, which may still not be 
quite ready -- in terms of finances or personnel -- for a 
general election.  Many within the Liberal caucus -- 
reportedly even including Dion as well as Deputy Leader 
Michael Ignatieff -- are still apparently chomping at the bit 
to force a spring election, and seem to be casting an eye on 
bringing a confidence vote on one of the allotted Opposition 
Days on March 31, April 1, or April 2, as soon as the Commons 
reconvenes. 
 
¶6.  (C)  A March 13-16 Strategic Counsel poll would seem to 
provide little incentive to go to an early vote, however, 
reporting support for the Conservatives at 38 percent and for 
the Liberals at only 27 percent.  Liberal enthusiasm for an 
early federal election probably stems more from discomfort 
with the current policy of ""whipped abstentions"" (and 
discontent with Dion as leader) than from any genuine sense 
that the Liberals are apt substantially to increase their 
seat count.  Nevertheless, the likelihood is that the voices 
of caution with the Liberal caucus will remain predominant 
for the time being, and that the Liberals will seek instead 
during the Commons' next sitting to showcase Rae and Hall 
 
OTTAWA 00000394  002 OF 002 
 
 
Findlay's talents in advance of a possible fall election. 
Dion appeared to lean this way in a post-election press 
conference on March 18, noting that the caucus' first 
priority will be to hold the government accountable and to 
make sure that Parliament works effectively, while choosing 
the ""right time"" to trigger an election.  For Dion 
personally, the addition of the new recruits -- particularly 
Rae -- to the Liberal front bench may prove to be a double 
edged sword if Rae's eloquence eclipses Dion in Question 
Period (not that many voters follow these televised exchanges 
very closely).  As the Liberals' foreign policy critic, Rae 
likely will speak out forcefully on human rights in China and 
Afghanistan. 
 
¶7.  (C)  Overall, the Conservatives are probably very 
comfortable with the outcome of the by-elections.  They had 
only an outside chance at the Saskatchewan seat -- which they 
won -- and kept expectations low by insisting that the 
elections were the Liberals' to lose.  They expended little 
effort or treasure.  Their solid second showing in Vancouver 
may also show that that they are beginning to make some 
inroads in key urban areas, a perennial weak point for the 
party.  In contrast, the NDP -- which has been the loudest 
opposition voice in favor of an early federal election -- was 
effectively marginalized in the by-elections, fighting for 
third place with the upstart Green Party. 
 
Visit Canada,s Economy and Environment Forum at 
http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/can ada 
 
WILKINS