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OO RUEHAST RUEHBC RUEHBI RUEHCI RUEHDA RUEHDE RUEHGI RUEHJS RUEHKUK
RUEHLH RUEHPW RUEHROV
DE RUEHNE #0825/01 0791313
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 191313Z MAR 08
FM AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0953
INFO RUCNCLS/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE
RUCNISL/ISLAMIC COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEIDN/DNI WASHINGTON DC
RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 6168
RHMFISS/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 7610
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RHMFISS/HQ USSOCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 000825 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR SCA/INS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL SOCI KISL IN
SUBJECT: BELLWETHER: UTTAR PRADESH - ON THE SLOW ROAD TO 
DEVELOPMENT 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: On March 12 Polcouns hosted a dinner 
attended by over 165 in the Uttar Pradesh (UP) capital, 
Lucknow, to honor longtime embassy contact and friend Dr. 
Ammar Rizvi.  In addition to the dinner, Polcouns and Poloffs 
held meetings with high-level state officials, local 
journalists, Shia Muslim leaders, and UP Assembly members 
from all parties.  Poloffs then traveled to Varanasi to meet 
with local business leaders and hosted a media roundtable. 
From the discussions it appears that despite the change in 
political leadership last year, little has changed in UP. 
Gang violence is down but the bloom has come off the rose of 
the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) government.  Chief Minister 
Mayawati's ego-driven monument construction in place of true 
development has turned off much of her non-Dalit vote bank. 
She will remain a factor in the coming national polls though, 
particularly because of Congress's extremely weak position in 
UP.  End Summary. 
 
The Talk of Lucknow 
------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) The Polcouns's honoring of longtime embassy contact 
Dr. Ammar Rizvi provided a successful capstone to the visit 
to Lucknow.  Dr. Rizvi is a Shia Muslim politician who met 
President Bush in Delhi in 2006 and has hosted US officials 
for over 30 years, not without some risk to himself.  Over 
165 people from all major political parties and groups 
attended the seminar and dinner, which was the talk of 
Lucknow according to our local contacts.  Poloffs and Indians 
pledged mutual friendship and support between the two peoples 
and countries. 
 
Lucknow Welcomes US Embassy 
--------------------------- 
 
¶3. (U) Leaders from all political parties including the 
Speaker of the UP State Assembly officially welcomed Poloffs 
to Lucknow on March 12.  After press departed the 
conversation turned to national politics.  The consensus was 
that national polls would be held towards the end of 2008. 
Poloff tried to engage the leaders on UP politics, but the 
political elders were disinclined to speak out with their 
colleagues in the room. But all became very animated as the 
discussion moved to the US presidential election.  To a man, 
all the politicians predicted that Senator Clinton would win 
the election.  Poloff assured the state legislators that all 
three remaining candidates are committed to a deep and broad 
relationship with India and that whichever candidate wins, 
Indo-US ties will only grow stronger in the future. 
 
Renewing Shia Muslim Contact 
---------------------------- 
 
¶4. (U) Poloff then met with leaders of the Lucknow Shia 
community.  Though Shias make up only 12-15 percent of 
India's Muslims, they comprise a majority of the Muslim 
population of Lucknow.  The primary speaker thanked the US 
for removing Saddam Hussein from Iraq and the Taliban from 
Afghanistan. The group denounced the growing influence of 
Wahabi Islam (and Saudi money) in India, particularly eastern 
UP, and called the revivalist Tablighi Jamaat the largest 
source of terror in South Asia.  The group also downplayed 
the recent Deoband declaration against terrorism. 
 
Journalists see Little Progress 
------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (U) At a roundtable meeting with journalists on March 12 
Poloff reiterated comments made throughout the day about the 
strength of the Indo-US relationship.  The UP-based 
journalist3 were very interested in future US investment in 
UP, but Poloff stressed that the private sector makes 
investment decisions.  To attract investment, Poloff stated 
that the highest priorities for UP should be building 
infrastructure, educating the workforce and creating a 
favorable business climate based on good governance and rule 
of law.  Citing the state government's closure of Reliance 
 
NEW DELHI 00000825  002 OF 003 
 
 
Fresh, a chain of small grocery stores, Poloff noted that UP 
will likely not see increased investment should such policies 
persist.  The journalists asked a few obligatory questions 
about the nuclear deal, but the topic did not generate much 
interest among the non-Delhi based reporters or presumably 
their readers. 
 
¶6. (U) When asked if the law and order situation had improved 
with the new BSP government, none of the journalists 
responded favorably.  On development, the reporters simply 
shrugged and mentioned Chief Minister Mayawati's ego-driven 
building of large parks and monuments to her and her party 
(as opposed to schools, roads, hospitals, and irrigation 
systems).  As for Mayawati's chances to become prime 
minister, the journalists expressed doubt that UP voters view 
Mayawati in quite such exalted terms.  They tended to think 
the electorate would fall back to one of the larger parties 
in the national polls.  But when asked if that portended good 
things for the Congress Party, the reporters virtually 
pronounced the party dead in UP.  The Congress Party will 
have to go for a tie up with either the BSP or the Samajwadi 
Party (SP), the journalists opined, though none had a strong 
indication of how or when it would happen.  According the 
journalists, Mayawati's overall popularity has declined since 
her sweeping victory nearly a year ago, but she will still be 
a force in the coming elections because her Dalit supporters 
don't really care if development happens or not.  "UP 
politics is impossible to predict," uttered the journalists 
most frequently. 
 
Civ-Nuke not Well Understood 
---------------------------- 
 
¶7. (U) At a meeting with UP Members of the Legislative 
Assembly (MLA) the nuclear deal elicited greater discussion. 
Most of the MLAs were skeptical, though woefully uninformed, 
of the deal.  The MLAs raised objections to the deal vaguely 
along the lines of those (mis)represented by the Left, but 
did not demonstrate much fervor.  Reflecting their positions 
as state legislators, the MLAs were very interested in US 
investment in UP.  Polcouns reminded them that while USAID 
may have some programs in the state, the private sector takes 
investment decisions. 
 
East To Varanasi 
---------------- 
 
¶8. (U) After Lucknow, Poloff traveled via road to Varanasi. 
The rough and uneven road remains wholly inadequate for any 
kind of mass transit or high volume trucking.  Poloff 
observed few tractors and very little mechanized farming 
throughout this stretch of rural eastern UP.  Entirely 
observable however, were large BSP posters of Mayawati 
throughout the state.  Mayawati allows no other BSP 
politician, save party founder and her (dead) political 
mentor Kanshi Ram, to grace BSP propaganda. 
 
¶9. (U) In Varanasi, Poloff held a roundtable with local 
journalists who were extremely interested in the nuclear 
deal.  The interest was likely due to the same day visit of 
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.  Speaking to reporters after 
his convocation address at Baranes Hindu University, the 
Prime Minister took a few shots at the Mayawati government 
for not satisfactorily implementing federal employment 
schemes.  He also said the central government was open to 
funding large scale transit and tourism projects in Varanasi, 
but put the onus on the state government to submit proposals. 
 
¶10. (U) In two meetings with local business leaders, Poloff 
was peppered with questions about how to improve private 
sector connections with US companies.  Poloff pledged to work 
with FCS officers in Delhi and help raise Varanasi's profile 
for incoming US trade delegations.  When asked about law and 
order, the business leaders acquiesced that the situation was 
somewhat better under the current Mayawati government. The 
previous government led by SP Chief Minister Mulayam Singh 
Yadav was marked by continual violence between competing 
 
NEW DELHI 00000825  003 OF 003 
 
 
mafia-like gangs.  "That type of gun violence has decreased, 
but corruption remains," remarked one of the businessmen. 
 
Intense Interest, Tinged with Habitual Skepticism 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶11. (SBU) Comment: The turnout to honor Dr. Rizvi and the 
meeting with the UP Assembly Speaker demonstrates the 
goodwill the US enjoys in India's heartland.  The vernacular 
Lucknow press heavily covered the embassy visit.  From 
discussions throughout the trip, the nuclear deal remains 
misunderstood outside Delhi.  The tepid opposition voiced in 
UP seemed to stem from residual anti-Americanism of the Cold 
War era. 
 
Mayawati: The Bloom Has Come Off 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶12. (SBU) Comment Continued: Though embassy contacts in UP 
perceived some improvement in law and order in the state, 
significant corruption remains.  Most observers viewed the 
Mayawati government as no better than any previous government 
in terms of development.  The business leaders understand 
they will have to grow in spite of the government. 
Politically, Mayawati's Dalit vote bank seems secure.  For 
national polls the BSP could see its Brahmin and Muslim 
support wane. 
 
Shias Concerned with Rise of Wahabism 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶13. (SBU) Comment Continued: Poloff's outreach to the 
minority Shia community helped allay fears that the US was 
somehow "choosing" the majority Sunnis of India.  Clearly, 
deep divisions remain between India's Sunni and Shia 
communities, with the latter very concerned about the rise of 
Wahabi Islam in UP.  Though the points delivered by both 
sides - the Shias stating that Islam is a religion of peace, 
Poloff responding that US is not anti-Islamic - were well 
known, the fact of the meeting provided reassurance and put a 
human face on our Muslim outreach efforts.  End Comment. 
MULFORD