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R 041806Z MAR 08
FM AMEMBASSY MEXICO
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RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MEXICO 000630 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON KCRM KDEM MX PGOV PHUM PINR PREL SMIG
SNAR 
SUBJECT: ZACATECAS NOTES:  STATE OF DISCONTENT 
 
¶1. (SBU) A two day trip to Zacatecas state in early February 
by Embassy Poloff and Monterrey consulate's Polecon chief 
provided indications that the nearly ten year grip held by 
the Democratic Revolutionary Party on the state may be 
loosening.  Contacts in politics, government, media and 
academe we spoke with told us that chronic economic 
stagnation, what residents perceive to be an uptick in 
violent crime in the past two years and the lackluster 
administration of current PRD governor Amalia Garcia have 
amplified a sense of things gone badly wrong. 
 
--------------------- 
A Century of Decline 
--------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) To be sure, discontent is no stranger to Zacatecas. 
The state fell on hard times more than a hundred years ago 
and never recovered its stature as one of the richest silver 
mining areas in the world.  The capital is richly adorned 
with ecclesiastical and administrative architecture befitting 
its status as colonial Mexico's most important northern city, 
but today it feels oversized relative to the rest of the 
sparsely populated, economically laconic state. 
 
¶3. (U) Mining and agriculture remain the two principal 
mainstays, but highly capitalized operations in the first and 
inefficiencies in the second mean neither offers extensive 
employment possibilities.  Commercial activities are 
small-scale and manufacturing nearly non-existent.  Dr. 
Miguel Moctezuma Director of Development Studies at the 
Autonomous University of Zacatecas, is fond of telling 
visitors that all of the state's commercial entrepreneurs can 
be fit into a Volkswagon Bug with room to spare. 
 
¶4. (U)  Something of an anomaly in north-central Mexico, 
Zacatecas is more akin to Chiapas and Oaxaca than its more 
prosperous neighbors.  It suffers chronically high 
unemployment/under-employment and ranked 26 out of 31 Mexican 
states in a GOM social development index published last year. 
 
¶5. (U)   Not surprisingly, one of its largest exports is 
migrant labor, largely to the U.S., but also to more 
prosperous regional cities such as Monterrey, Guadalajara and 
San Luis Potosi. Dr. Moctezuma estimates that the state loses 
between 20 and 30 thousand workers each year.  The state's 
population grew by only four percent between 1990 and 2000 
and by some accounts has since declined. 
 
--------------------------------------- 
Rising Crime Further Erodes Confidence 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (U) One group taking a new interest in the state is 
unwelcome by its residents.   In recent years, Zacatecas had 
been relatively insulated from rising crime and violence. 
Violent crime, including homicides, in fact, dipped 
significantly from the late 1990s through 2002.   There are 
indications, however, that the cartels have begun to 
establish a foothold in the state. 
 
¶7. (SBU)  Government contacts with whom we spoke, such as the 
new Secretary of Government and State Public Security Chief, 
downplayed crime as a major issue; however, non-governmental 
contacts we spoke with, such as print journalist Alfredo 
Valadez and broadcaster Francisco Esparza, painted a more 
negative picture.  Robberies, auto-theft, kidnapping and 
extortion have increased significantly in the past year, they 
said. 
 
¶8. (SBU)  Recent high-profile incidents such as the killing 
of seven state policemen in late December and the on air 
death threat to a popular broadcaster in Fresnillo early this 
year have robbed the state of its sleepy, close-knit feel and 
contributed to a sense of unease, said many contacts. 
 
 
MEXICO 00000630  002 OF 003 
 
 
¶9. (SBU)  No hard evidence exists that narco-violence is here 
to stay in Zacatecas, but the picture painted by contacts in 
the state dovetails with comments made to us earlier by 
public security officials in neighboring Nuevo Leon.  State 
attorney general Luis Carlos Trevino and San Pedro Police 
Chief told us that combined military and law enforcement 
operations put pressure on cartel operations in Nuevo Leon 
and Tamaulipas; traffickers have moved some operations into 
neighboring states and gone "downmarket" - diversifying into 
auto-theft, extortion and other petty criminal pursuits to 
keep their core operations greased with cash. 
 
¶10. (SBU)  Well-removed from commercial trucking routes and 
far from the U.S. border, Zacatecas does not offer 
narco-traffickers a particularly attractive foothold, but 
even the Secretary of Government and Public Security Chief 
acknowledged that both the Gulf and Pacific Cartels had made 
some inroads.  As important, the public's perception is that 
growing crime is yet another example of a state government 
that is under-performing. 
 
------------------------------------ 
PRD Gets More Than It Bargained For 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶11.  (U)  Zacatecans are habitually hard to please. 
Complaints about economic and social underdevelopment, as 
well as rising crime, helped the PRD drive the long-ruling 
PRI from power back in 1998 when a young Ricardo Monreal 
broke from the later party and become the first PRD state 
governor.  Capitalizing on PRI's ebbing credibility, Monreal 
built the PRD up from the ground in Zacatecas.  Despite an 
internal PRD flap over his support for his (Labor Party) 
brother's mayoral race in Fresnillo last year, he retains a 
significant amount of influence in the state.   He is 
currently a PRD Senator-at-large in the national legislature. 
 
¶12. (SBU)  Current governor Amalia Garcia, on the other hand, 
is considered by many to be a bit of an outsider.  Her father 
was a PRI state governor in the 1950s, but Garcia left the 
state as a teenager and spent most of her adult life in 
Mexico City where she was active in leftwing politics.  She 
is criticized for what many consider to be a series of bad 
cabinet picks, and for cycling her advisors from one state 
post to another even when they poorly managed their previous 
portfolios.  A cabinet shuffle in early January brought in no 
new faces and was seen by many as uninspired. 
 
¶13. (SBU )  The biggest complaint we heard about the governor 
was her failure to articulate a coherent strategy to promote 
state development.  Such feelings may have contributed to PRD 
losses in elections for municipal and state elections last 
July when the party lost a third of its state's municipal 
presidencies and legislative seats, largely to the PRI. 
 
¶14. (SBU)  Garcia and her party may get a boost from her 
former Secretary of Government, Gerardo Romo Fonseca, who is 
running for the state's party president on a pledge to 
re-vitalize the organization. (Romo also pledges to deliver a 
state PRD majority to AMLO-backed candidate for national 
party president, Alejandro Encinas.) 
 
¶15. (SBU)  Charismatic and energetic, Romo says he will focus 
party attention on rural development, a theme which he admits 
has not been adequately addressed by the current governor. 
Nearly three quarters of the state's residents live in small 
"poblaciones" or in rural areas, he said, although he offered 
no clear strategy for re-vitalizing the countryside. 
¶16. (U)  Meanwhile, opposition activists are eying a number 
of alternative candidates to run against the party in 2010 
state elections.   They are currently rallying behind Jose 
Aguirre, a prominent construction magnate; the hope is that 
he will head a non-partisan ticket based on civic renewal. 
Another possible contender is the recently elected  Zacatecas 
Mayor, PANista Cuatemoc Calderon. 
 
MEXICO 00000630  003 OF 003 
 
 
 
¶17. (U)  With a year an a half before gubernatorial elections 
Zacatecans still have time to ruminate further on their 
future.  Whoever wins in 2010 will have a difficult job ahead 
infusing the state's residents with confidence. 
 
 
 
Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity and the North American 
Partnership Blog at http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/nap / 
GARZA