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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MANAGUA 000297 
 
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E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/05/2018 
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SUBJECT: ATLANTIC COAST ELECTION DELAYS COULD SPARK VIOLENCE 
 
REF: MANAGUA 105 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Paul A. Trivelli for reasons 1.4(b,d) 
 
1  (C) SUMMARY:  Residents in Nicaragua's North Atlantic 
Autonomous Region (RAAN) are sharply divided and close to 
violence over the possibility of elections being suspended 
because of Hurricane Felix damage in the municipalities of 
Puerto Cabezas, Waspam, and Prinzapolka.  Supreme Electoral 
Council (CSE) magistrates traveled to Puerto Cabezas, RAAN on 
February 26 on a "fact finding" mission, but reportedly met 
only with anti-election supporters, including the Regional 
Council, which handed over a resolution in favor of 
suspension.  On March 12, the CSE will present its 
recommendations to the National Assembly's Executive 
Committee.  Although suspension legally requires an electoral 
law reform ratified by 56 deputies, pro-election deputies and 
supporters fear the CSE will judicially engineer suspension, 
effectively bypassing the National Assembly, to fend off a 
near-certain electoral loss for the indigenous Yatama party, 
a close ally of President Daniel Ortega.  There are reports 
that Yatama is recruiting "shock troops" in the RAAN to 
intimidate voters and expel "mestizos" and pro-election 
supporters.  END SUMMARY. 
 
GON Seeks Excuses to Suspend Elections 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶2.  (SBU) On February 26, Supreme Electoral Council (CSE) 
President Roberto Rivas and magistrate Emmett Lang visited 
the RAAN capital of Puerto Cabezas to assess the region's 
preparedness to hold municipal elections in November 2008. 
Originally billed as a "fact finding" mission in November 
2007 (reftel), Rivas and Lang allegedly met only with local 
Yatama officials allied with President Daniel Ortega's 
Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN), including the 
mayor of Puerto Cabezas, the RAAN's governor, and the 
Regional Council -- the highest governing body in the 
autonomous region.  The Regional Council presented the CSE 
magistrates with a resolution requesting that elections be 
suspended in the RAAN municipalities of Puerto Cabezas, 
Waspam, and Prinzapolka on grounds that the physical and 
psychological damage caused by Hurricane Felix was too 
extensive to justify the contests.  Further, the Council 
requested that funds earmarked for the elections be put 
towards reconstruction efforts. 
 
¶3. (C) The Government of Nicaragua (GON) is also seeking a 
legal basis to suspend the elections.  In conversation with 
USAID officials, Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs Valdrack 
Jaentschke cited as justification GON non-compliance with an 
Inter-American Human Rights Court (IAHRC) verdict won by 
Yatama following their exclusion from the 2000 elections. 
Jaentschke advised that elections in the RAAN would likely be 
postponed until the constitutional reforms mandated by the 
court had been implemented in order to avoid further 
international legal troubles.  Javier Williams, a former Vice 
Minister of Foreign Affairs in the Bolanos government who is 
intimately familiar with this case, dismissed this assertion, 
insisting that the GON's non-compliance "had not stopped 
Yatama from running pro-FSLN candidates in the 2005 and 2006 
elections" that brought National Assembly deputy Brooklyn 
Rivera and RAAN governor Reynaldo Francis to power. 
 
Pro-Election Representatives Denied Access to CSE 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶4.  (C) Aware of the CSE magistrates' visit, a group of 
pro-election leaders requested and were granted a meeting 
with Rivas and Lang to present a counter-petition in favor of 
elections.  When the pro-election representatives arrived for 
their meeting, a Regional Council representative reportedly 
attempted to divide the group, authorizing only certain 
members to present the proposal.  Instead of acquiescing, the 
group refused and left the premises without an audience with 
the magistrates.  Separately, local religious leaders sought 
a meeting with Rivas and Lang to lobby for elections, but 
never received a response.  (NOTE:  The World Food Program's 
Country Director, in Puerto Cabezas at the time of the 
magistrates' visit, characterized the visit as "a private 
 
MANAGUA 00000297  002 OF 003 
 
 
dinner party.  They arrived in the late afternoon and went 
straight into a meeting for the rest of the evening."  END 
NOTE) 
 
A Growing Threat of Violence 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶5.  (C) Multiple sources have warned us that there will be 
violence in the RAAN no matter what the final decision on 
elections in these three municipalities.  There is mounting 
evidence to support this concern: 
 
- The day before the CSE's visit, hundreds of Yatama 
supporters participated in a pro-suspension rally in Puerto 
Cabezas.  Osorno "Blas" Coleman, a pro-election movement and 
indigenous leader, was roughed up after showing up at the 
rally with 80 supporters and demanding to speak. 
 
- The day after the CSE visit, hundreds of pro-election 
supporters burned tires and took to the streets of Puerto 
Cabezas. 
 
- Four days later, on Sunday, March 2, pro-election 
supporters staged marches in Puerto Cabezas and Waspam. 
Coleman estimated that over 1,000 people participated in 
Puerto Cabezas  and 2,000 in Waspam.  He recounted that 
marchers entered the city halls in both municipalities, 
allegedly removing the mayor of Waspam and threatening to 
burn down City Hall in Puerto Cabezas if elections were 
suspended.  In a public statement following the marches, 
Yatama Governor Reynaldo Francis accused pro-election 
supporters of ransacking Yatama's party headquarters in 
Puerto Cabezas. 
 
- In a published statement, the mayor of Puerto Cabezas and 
Francis openly threatened Sunday's march participants, 
declaring that the price for Sunday's actions would be "very 
expensive." 
 
- Sources have reported that pro-FSLN members of Yatama have 
been forming what one contact dubbed "shock troops" in 
communities throughout the RAAN to "take action" if elections 
go forward as planned in November.  According to contacts, 
these groups are allegedly trying to persuade indigenous 
communities that elections in November would delay the 
region's recovery.  To tangibly demonstrate what is at stake, 
these groups are said to be passing out school uniforms, 
books, pens/pencils, and livestock to the communities with 
the message that all such assistance would stop if elections 
are held.  Further, these "shock troops" are said to be 
spreading the notion that the "mestizos" (non-indigenous 
immigrants from other parts of the country) are pushing for 
elections to keep the indigenous in conditions of poverty, 
thereby allowing the mestizos to "continue taking advantage 
of them."  If elections are held, these shock troops are 
threatening to forcibly remove mestizos and pro-election 
indigenous residents from the RAAN. 
 
CSE Set to Meet with National Assembly 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶6.  (C) The National Assembly Executive Committee will meet 
with CSE magistrates Rivas and Lang on March 12 to discuss 
the Regional Council's proposal to delay elections.  Under 
Nicaraguan law, changing an election date requires electoral 
law reform, a legislative move that requires a minimum of 56 
votes in the National Assembly.  Convinced that the FSLN 
cannot garner enough votes to approve such a change, Liberal 
Constitutional Party (PLC) National Assembly deputy Victor 
Duarte -- the most vocal advocate in favor of elections -- 
confided that he fears the Ortega government will try to push 
the suspension through the CSE or some other mechanism 
without consulting with the National Assembly.  Duarte 
reported that he is advocating for a new National Assembly 
committee to conduct an independent study of electoral 
conditions in the RAAN prior to the March 12 meeting to 
ensure the "Executive Committee has a balanced picture of the 
RAAN's environment."  Duarte also expressed concern over 
rumors that the CSE intends to discreetly reconfigure voting 
jurisdictions to fragment Liberal voter bases in key 
 
MANAGUA 00000297  003 OF 003 
 
 
municipalities and bolster FSLN registeries.  A Conservative 
Party (PC) leader told us on March 10 that the CSE plans to 
seek a judicial ruling upholding the Regional Council's right 
to suspend the elections under the country's regional 
autonomy law (Law 28), thereby effectively bypassing the 
National Assembly altogether. 
 
Comment 
- - - - 
 
¶7.  (C) The RAAN is a tumultuous region, where isolated 
protests and disturbances occasionally erupt due to 
underlying political and racial tension that simmers just 
below the surface.  It is a population that feels neglected, 
forgotten, and often exploited by national and regional 
governments.  However, up until now the residents' right to 
vote has never been threatened.  There is deep concern that 
the Ortega government will engineer an election suspension to 
avoid almost certain electoral losses in Puerto Cabezas, 
Waspam, and Prinzapolka.  As a result, our sources warn us of 
potential widespread intimidation and violence regardless of 
the final decision on the status of elections.  They claim 
the FSLN and their Yatama allies are actively recruiting 
enforcers to intimidate voters and carry out mass expulsions 
and other 9DOQ,ELLI