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RR RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHLG #0158/01 0741006
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 141006Z MAR 08
FM AMEMBASSY LILONGWE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5122
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORPORATION WASHINGTON DC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 LILONGWE 000158 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/S E. PELLETREAU 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM EAID MI
SUBJECT: MALAWI: ELECTION PREPARATIONS MAKING PROGRESS 
 
REF: LILONGWE 50 
 
LILONGWE 00000158  001.2 OF 004 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  Since gaining a quorum of commissioners in 
mid-January, the Malawi Electoral Commission (MEC) has made 
progress both on preparations for the May 2009 general 
elections, and in overcoming opposition criticism of their 
impartiality.  On March 6, the MEC announced its electoral 
calendar, setting May 19, 2009 as the date for presidential 
and parliamentary elections.  The MEC requested a budget of 
$37.3 million USD, a 135% increase over actual expenditures 
in the 2004 election, for 2009 presidential and parliamentary 
elections.  The GOM pledged $4.2 million USD for election 
preparations in the FY2008 budget and plans to ask for at 
least an additional $9.85 million USD in the FY2009 budget 
cycle, leaving a shortfall of approximately 24 million USD 
that the GOM hopes donors will cover.  Planned donor 
countries' contributions currently total only  about $12 
million, however, to which USAID's portion is only $475,000 
USD.  Almost one quarter of the MEC budget request is for a 
new state-of-the-art voter registration system the MEC claims 
is needed due to major problems with the 2004 rolls and the 
lack of supplies for the old registration system.  MEC has 
not yet extended an open invitation for international 
observers, but they will be essential to monitor what is 
almost certain to be a hard-fought and contentious election. 
End Summary. 
 
MEC ANNOUNCES ELECTORAL CALENDAR 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (U) On January 17, the High Court ruled that President 
Mutharika's MEC appointments were legal (ref A), thus 
establishing a quorum of commissioners and allowing the MEC 
to accelerate planning for 2009 general elections.  On March 
6, the MEC announced its electoral calendar, setting May 19, 
2009 as the date for presidential and parliamentary 
elections.  Preparations for the elections include many 
critical actions during March and April 2008 including 
constituency demarcation meetings, procurement of voter 
registration equipment, and recruitment and training of 
registration staff.  Registration of voters is scheduled to 
commence on June 2, 2008 and will be staged in six staggered 
phases of 14 days each until September 14, a method meant to 
reduce the cost of the registration exercise by allowing the 
MEC to purchase less equipment and hire fewer workers. 
Nominations for presidential and parliamentary candidates are 
due by January 9, 2009.  A voters' roll inspection will take 
place March 30-April 3 2009 at all polling stations.  Initial 
public reaction was mixed, with many lauding the MEC for 
releasing a calendar on time but questioning the late 
nomination deadline and the short voters' roll inspection 
period. 
 
PASSING THE HAT FOR A BIG ELECTION BUDGET 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU)   Among MEC's first actions was to unveil a $37.3 
million USD budget for presidential and parliamentary 
elections.  The requested budget represents a 135% increase 
over actual expenditures in the 2004 elections.  MEC defended 
the budget request to donors by emphasizing that the 2004 
elections had numerous shortcomings and should not be used as 
a basis for comparison.  The GOM has indicated it will 
request $9.85 million USD in the FY 2008/09 budget for the 
election, leaving a shortfall of $24 million USD that the GOM 
expects to come from donors.  Opposition members of the 
National Assembly fear that the first chance they will get to 
comment officially on the MEC's budget request will be at the 
anticipated June meeting of parliament to discuss the 
national budget (a point of view supported by press reporting 
today, wherein the Finance Minister warns that failure to 
consider and pass the national budget in a timely way could 
derail the elections).  The budget session is expected to be 
highly contentious. Delays in approving, or cuts to the MEC's 
budget at such a late date, could adversely affect election 
preparations.  Donors will be unable to make up the expected 
shortfall and have stressed to the MEC and GOM the need for a 
leaner budget and Malawian ownership of the election.  For 
his part, Minister of Finance Goodall Gondwe has publicly 
stated that the budget for 2008/2009 will be the largest of 
the Mutharika administration due to election funding and he 
has privately told UNDP and the Ambassador that he agrees 
with donor concerns that the government of Malawi must own 
the elections.  His comment provide some hope that the GOM 
will request additional funding for the MEC. 
 
NEW COMPUTERIZED VOTER REGISTRATION CONTROVERSIAL 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
 
LILONGWE 00000158  002.2 OF 004 
 
 
¶4.  (SBU) The MEC identified the need to create a new voters 
roll as a top priority.  MEC claimed the voters roll used 
during 2004 had many missing names and was a mix of several 
manual systems, all of which led to confusion, criticism, and 
fraud.  In addition, the previous registration system 
depended upon photos produced by Polaroid cameras for which 
film is no longer available.  The MEC's proposed new system 
costs $8.6 million USD, almost one quarter of the total 
requested budget, and uses a combination of digital 
photographs and biometrics to confirm identities.  The system 
was chosen based on recommendations from technical advisors 
funded by the UNDP Election Trust Fund.  Despite high initial 
costs, the new system should ultimately be more economical in 
the long run due to the high costs of film for the previous 
system.  Opposition leaders are not confident of the need for 
or feasibility of the new system.  United Democratic Front 
(UDF) MP and Legal Affairs Committee Chairperson Atupele 
Muluzi stated that the cutting-edge system is  more advanced 
than the systems of Canada or the United States, and has yet 
to be proven in an environment with poor infrastructure, 
unreliable electricity, and low technological sophistication. 
 Muluzi suggested it would take more than a year to properly 
set up the system and train users adequately.  Muluzi 
proposed that a less technology-dependent system be 
considered for 2009.  (Comment:  Muluzi's observation that 
the system would be more advanced than most in the U.S. and 
Canada is correct, but we note that Malawian citizens do not 
routinely possess any reliable identity document, thus 
necessitating a more rigorous effort to establish the 
identity of voters within the electoral registry itself.) 
 
MEC STRUGGLES TO HIRE QUALIFIED STAFF 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Both opposition and donors have also cited the high 
costs of technical assistance in the budget request.  The MEC 
has budgeted for 192 work-months spread among 13 technical 
advisors who would cover elections, media, human resources, 
financial management, procurement, and information technology 
at a total cost of $3 million USD.  The need for technical 
assistance is not being debated, however.  The MEC still 
needs to hire a Chief Elections Officer and deputies for 
Operations, Finance and Administration and Head of Finance 
and Procurement.  The Human Rights Consultative Committee 
(HRCC), an umbrella organization of human rights NGOs, 
believes the dependence on non-MEC employees, both technical 
advisors and the use of other government agencies, could lead 
to chaos in the elections due to a lack of coordination and 
impartial, skilled workers to carry out the plan.  Others 
have countered that it is impossible to expect a country as 
poor as Malawi to be able to maintain a full-time, 
professional electoral commission when it only has 
large-scale actions to perform every 4-5 years. 
 
BUT LEADER HAS VAST EXPERIENCE 
------------------------------ 
 
¶6. (SBU) Justice Anastasia Msosa, a Supreme Court Justice and 
the current chairperson of the MEC, was also the head of the 
election body in 1994.  In 1993, she led Malawi through a 
successful referendum on multi-party democracy after 30 years 
of dictatorship.  She also oversaw a contentious election 
where United Democratic Front leader Bakili Muluzi captured 
the presidency from President-for-Life Hastings Kamuzu Banda. 
 Msosa is known to be competent, pragmatic, and apolitical. 
In her second round as chairperson of the MEC, Msosa has 
shown a willingness to listen to stakeholders and engage all 
political parties, a strategy that continues to win 
confidence. 
 
OPPOSITION PARTIES -- AND MEC -- SLAM PUBLIC MEDIA BIAS 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Opposition political parties have been vocal in 
their displeasure with MEC's civic and voter education 
strategy.  They claim the strategy, which was released in 
late February, was not developed in consultation with the 
political parties.  Alliance For Democracy (AFORD) said that 
releasing the strategy without any input from the 
stakeholders was the same approach President Mutharika's had 
followed in appointing MEC commissioners, and would further 
erode opposition confidence in the MEC.  Even the ruling 
Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) took exception to the lack 
of consultation and suggested the MEC had to create greater 
ownership of the strategy.  The biggest concern with the 
education strategy was the inclusion of Malawi Broadcasting 
Corporation (MBC), Television Malawi (TVM), and the Ministry 
of Information on the MEC's Voter Education Committee. 
Opposition leaders consider both MBC, the national public 
 
LILONGWE 00000158  003.2 OF 004 
 
 
radio broadcaster, and TVM, the only television station in 
Malawi, to be highly partisan.  MEC engaged each political 
party in individual meetings to try and address concerns. 
The first outcome of the meetings was March 5 letters to both 
MBC and TVM asking them to cease broadcasting inflammatory 
and biased programs that could create hatred and violence 
among political players.  MEC is the first government entity 
to openly criticize the two stations for their biased 
programming and asked for the removal of specific programs 
from the air.  The content of the programs cited is to some 
measure satirical but heavily anti-opposition and in one case 
uses archival material to lampoon the current (and very 
different) views of opposition leaders. 
 
¶8.  (U) The MEC education strategy is heavily dependent upon 
NGOs.  Aloysius Nthenda, chairperson of the Malawi Electoral 
Support Network (MESN), an umbrella organization of NGOs 
working in voter education, said being so dependent on NGOs 
could create its own issues due to the advocacy roles many 
NGOs play.  Nthenda explained that while most NGOs are 
capable of educating people about the need to vote, there is 
a fear that voters will then ask how to choose the right 
candidate, which could lead to partiality.  Both MESN and MEC 
have agreed to a code of conduct and an accreditation process 
for NGOs involved in voter education to help ensure 
impartiality.  MESN has also stressed that donors should 
release funds early so that voter education can begin well in 
advance of elections. 
 
ELECTION RESULTS TO BE ISSUED BY MEC, NOT PUBLIC MEDIA 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
¶9.  (U) Already sensitive to opposition concerns about MBC 
and TVM, the MEC announced on February 29 that poll results 
will not be broadcast by MBC as occurred in 2004.  Instead, 
election results centers will be established near polling 
stations and all media will have equal access to the voting 
results. 
 
LOCAL ELECTIONS TO BE FURTHER DELAYED 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶10. (SBU) The current MEC budget does not include funds for 
local government elections.  Local government elections are 
constitutionally-mandated to be held one year after general 
elections.  The first and only local government elections 
were held in 2000, but were not repeated in 2005 due to a 
food crisis.  Once the food crisis was resolved, local 
government elections continued to slip despite pressure from 
donors and the opposition.  The German Agency for Technical 
Cooperation's (GTZ) Promotion of Democratic Decentralization 
program has linked some of its funding to the GOM to the 
holding of local government elections.  Additionally, the 
Commonwealth Local Government Forum has also been encouraging 
steps toward early local elections in 2008.  President 
Mutharika has called local elections expensive and 
unnecessary, but nonetheless suggested for some time that 
they would be held at the same time as presidential and 
parliamentary polls if the Constitution could be amended to 
permit that.  With the continuing political impasse delaying 
the expected Parliamentary session in early 2008, however, it 
is increasingly unlikely that the necessary legislation can 
be passed, even if the President were to change his very 
negative opinion as to the utility of the district councils 
to be elected.  Furthermore, with the expectation of highly 
contentious presidential and parliamentary elections, 
opposition parties are now content to focus all of their 
resources on the general elections and wait until 2010 for 
the next local government elections.  Still, some donors have 
requested that MEC prepare a supplemental budget that shows 
the additional expenses holding tripartite elections would 
incur over the current 5.3 billion MK request. 
 
NO INVITATION YET FOR INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶11. (SBU)  While MEC Chair Msosa has stated publicly, and to 
donors privately, that international observers will be 
welcomed in 2009 as in the past, MEC has not issued formal 
invitations to observer delegations.  At the prompting of 
Ambassador Eastham, the MEC agreed in late February to begin 
drafting an international observer policy in preparation of 
extending a formal invitation to prospective observers.  The 
embassy has begun a dialogue with both the MEC and other 
foreign missions about coordination of observers and has 
stressed to all that observers should be invited months, not 
weeks, before the election.  Ideally observers would witness 
voter registration and education in addition to polling. 
Norway has expressed the most interest in sending observers 
 
LILONGWE 00000158  004.2 OF 004 
 
 
but will not commit until the EU, who requires a formal 
invitation from the MEC, has decided whether it will send 
observers.  SEPTEL will include the U.S. Mission's request 
for incremental funding to support fielding a U.S. observer 
mission. 
 
ELECTION PROGRESS ENCOURAGING BUT TIMETABLE, FUNDING STILL 
TIGHT 
----------------------------- 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶12. (SBU) Comment: The MEC's recent flurry of activity, 
including the release of the election calendar, is 
encouraging.  MEC's willingness to engage all political 
parties is building trust in the institution, and both major 
opposition parties have hinted that they will likely drop 
their legal appeal concerning the appointment of the 
commissioners if the MEC continues to involve all 
stakeholders.  Furthermore, the announcement of a date for 
the election will put additional pressure on the government 
and other stakeholders to work with the MEC on preparations. 
The GOM has already provided MEC funding to procure the 
high-tech system despite opposition concerns and no guarantee 
of government and donors fully funding the MEC budget 
request.  There is every reason to believe that Malawi's 2009 
elections will be hard-fought and contentious, putting the 
MEC and eventual international observers at the center of a 
potential political storm. 
EASTHAM