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RR RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHLG #0157/01 0740953
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 140953Z MAR 08
FM AMEMBASSY LILONGWE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5120
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 LILONGWE 000157 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/S - E. PELLETREAU 
USAID FOR MARJORIE COPSEN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM EAID MI
SUBJECT: MALAWI: MISSION REQUEST FOR ELECTION SUPPORT 
 
 
¶1. (U) This is an action request.  Please see paragraphs 5 
and 6. 
 
¶2. (SBU) Summary:  The Malawi Electoral Commission is making 
progress in preparation for the May 19, 2009 presidential and 
parliamentary elections by engaging stakeholders, refining 
plans, and defending a $37.3 million USD budget request to 
both the government of Malawi and foreign aid donors. 
Malawi's 2009 elections are likely to be the most contentious 
since 1994, pitting three "big men" with grudges against each 
other.  We expect Malawi will extend an invitation for 
international observers before voter registration begins on 
June 2.  While the U.S. Mission has already contributed 
$475,000 to the MEC's budget for voter and civic education, 
we believe there is still more that needs to be done to 
instill credibility and decrease the potential for fraud.  We 
would welcome additional funding to support the electoral 
process itself and more specifically we would appreciate 
consideration of all available options to field a team of 
qualified U.S. observers for Malawi. With a year's notice 
before the elections in 2009, we hope it will be possible to 
do so. 
 
¶3. (SBU) As reported in septel, preparations for the May 19, 
2009 presidential and parliamentary elections are progressing 
and the Malawi Electoral Commission (MEC) has taken a number 
of positive steps including reaching out to media, foreign 
aid donors, political parties and the government.  The MEC 
has engaged stakeholders and addressed concerns in a 
constructive manner while also defending its $37.3 million 
USD budget request and the need for a new voter registration 
system and new voters' rolls to ensure free and fair 
elections. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Malawi's 2009 elections could be the most 
contentious since the advent of multi-party democracy.  Some 
opposition supporters have sought to paint a picture of a 
potential "Kenya scenario" in Malawi, pointing to a similar 
degree of betrayal and personal animosities between principal 
actors President Bingu wa Mutharika, former president Bakili 
Muluzi and MCP leader John Tembo.  Muluzi's actions indicate 
his main goal is to deny Mutharika a second term at almost 
any cost.  Many still believe Malawi Congress Party (MCP) 
leader John Tembo was the rightful winner of the 2004 
elections and that he might not back down in 2009, likely his 
 last attempt at the presidency, if election irregularities 
arise again.  Consequently, this election will be 
personality-driven, "big man" politics of the highest order. 
While Malawi lacks the strong tribal divisions of other 
nations, regionalism is still strong and religious divides 
between Muslims and Christians could be used to foment 
divisions.  Most importantly, after 4 years of political 
gridlock and constitutionally-questionable legal maneuvers, 
the 2009 elections will be critical in re-establishing the 
legitimacy of the government -- and democracy in general -- 
for this generation of Malawians.  Anything less than a free 
and fair election could further alienate an electorate that 
is becoming increasingly cynical about democratic politics. 
There is a significant risk that Malawi, which took giant 
steps away toward democratic freedoms in the 1990's, could 
tip backwards into autocracy and unconstitutional rule. 
 
¶5. (SBU) The U.S. Mission believes a strong and credible 
international observer team will be necessary to prevent this 
backsliding.  An observer team should ideally begin its work 
in mid-2008 to monitor voter registration, civic education 
exercises, campaigning, polling, and electoral result 
dissemination, as each stage will be vulnerable to fraud and 
abuse.  Justice Msosa has met with the Ambassador and 
promised to draft a policy on international observers and 
extend an invitation before the registration period begins in 
June 2008.  It appears likely that the European Union will 
put together an observation mission once an official 
invitation arrives from the MEC, but we are concerned that 
recent EU observation missions in other African elections 
have not always provided the kind of steady leadership and 
professional rigor that U.S.-sponsored missions do. 
 
¶6. (SBU) The U.S. Mission has already committed $475,000 USD 
to the MEC's budget for civic and voter education in 2008 and 
plans to contribute the same amount in 2009, but we believe 
there is still more that needs to be done.  We would welcome 
additional funds to support the electoral process itself, as 
well as an U.S. observer team, whether publicly or privately 
funded.  When the invitation for international observers is 
extended, we would like to be able to respond with an offer 
to send an observer team to Malawi to fill this pressing 
need.  To be able to do that, we request that the Department 
consider all available options to field a team of qualified 
 
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observers to increase the credibility of Malawi's 2009 
elections and reduce the risks of fraud and violence. 
EASTHAM