VZCZCXRO2613
RR RUEHBI RUEHCI
DE RUEHCI #0088/01 0721222
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 121222Z MAR 08
FM AMCONSUL KOLKATA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1918
INFO RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 1801
RUEHBI/AMCONSUL MUMBAI 0833
RUEHCG/AMCONSUL CHENNAI 0828
RUEHGO/AMEMBASSY RANGOON 0407
RUEHKA/AMEMBASSY DHAKA 0561
RUEHKT/AMEMBASSY KATHMANDU 0549
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUEIDN/DNI WASHINGTON DC
RHMFIUU/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RUEHCI/AMCONSUL KOLKATA 2344

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KOLKATA 000088 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL IN
SUBJECT: NORTHEAST INDIA DOES NOT FAVOR CONGRESS, LEFT'S STRENGTH 
REINFORCED 
 
REF: KOLKATA 72, 80, 81 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  In the Northeast Indian state of Meghalaya, 
the incumbent Congress-led government was again sworn in despite 
its lack of majority in the state legislature.  In neighboring 
Nagaland, the Democratic Alliance of Nagaland (DAN), a BJP 
coalition, which was ousted in January when the UPA placed the 
state under Central Rule, won a majority.  In Tripura, the Left 
Front inflicted a crushing defeat on the Congress for the fourth 
consecutive time.  Although the three Northeast states are 
small, the Congress Party's electoral debacle in the region is a 
warning that early general elections may not work in its favor. 
The Left leadership's recent statements on the possible 
formation of a third front may find some credence with the Left, 
proving that it retains its dominance in its eastern India 
strongholds.  End Summary. 
 
Meghalaya 
 
¶2. (U) On March 10, the Congress under D.D. Lapang formed a 
government in Meghalaya without a majority and without the 
confirmed support of regional parties.  With only 25 legislators 
in a legislature of 60, Lapang has 10 days to prove his 
majority.  Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) leader, former 
Parliament Speaker and Meghalaya political heavyweight P.A. 
Sangma, who heads a rival coalition with 31 legislators strongly 
protested the development.  He had informed Governor S.S. Sidhu 
of the strength of his coalition, but the Governor decided that 
Sangma's coalition did not constitute a pre-poll alliance and 
therefore did not deserve precedence over the single-largest 
vote- getter, Congress.  Sangma said he will file a petition 
with the India Supreme Court to challenge the decision. 
 
¶3. (U) The NCP and the regional parties - United Democratic 
Party (UDP), Hill State People's Democratic Party (HSPDP), Khun 
Hynniewtrep National Awakening Movement (KHNAM), BJP and two 
independents have now formed the Meghalaya Progressive Alliance. 
 Results for 59 seats have been announced:  NCP(15), UDP(11), 
HSPDP(2), and KHNAM(1).   The BJP won one seat and Independents 
won four. 
 
Nagaland 
 
¶4.  (U) Despite Congress' efforts to undermine the incumbent 
Democratic Alliance of Nagaland (DAN)  through the pre-election 
imposition of President's Rule,  DAN and its BJP ally emerged as 
the front-runner to form the next Nagaland government.  Of the 
57 results announced so far for seats in the 60-member Assembly, 
the Nagaland People's Front (NPF), which heads the DAN, won 25 
spots while  Congress won 22.  The NCP and BJP secured two seats 
each.  Six independents also won from their respective 
constituencies. 
 
Tripura 
 
¶5.  (U) On March 10, the Left Front government was sworn into 
government for the fourth consecutive time.  The Left Front won 
a total of 49 seats in the 60 member assembly -- CPM(46), 
RSP(2), and CPI(1). The opposition Congress fared poorly (10) 
and its partner Indigenous Nationalist Party of Tripura (INPT) 
managed a single seat.  The INPT is the political arm of the 
tribal militant National Liberation Front of Tripura (NLFT). 
CPM leaders hailed the Left Front's victory, and said that the 
verdict was a lesson to the Congress for trying to divide the 
state into tribals and non-tribals (Tripura's population is 30 
per cent tribal and 70 per cent Bengali). 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Comment:  With a crushing defeat in Tripura and 
lackluster performances in Nagaland and in Meghalaya where it 
did not get a clear majority, the Congress failed in its once 
traditional political base among the Northeast Indian states. 
This disappointing performance follows thumping defeats the 
Congress suffered in Gujarat and Himachal last December.  The 
Northeast losses must be especially disheartening for the 
Congress, which had hoped to boost party morale with some "small 
wins" on its home turf.   These losses will no doubt factor into 
the Congress High Command's decision on the timing of a general 
election.  Clearly, the Congress Party is stumbling into its 
final year in office floundering and enfeebled.  Whether 
national elections are early or on schedule in May 2009, it is 
apparent the Congress Party needs some major refurbishment if it 
is to remain competitive.  Its latest strategy appears to be to 
ride the coat-tails of the super-populist "please-all" budget 
 
KOLKATA 00000088  002 OF 002 
 
 
that it unveiled on the eve of the polls in the Northeast.  The 
strategy did not work in the Northeast, thus supporting the view 
of many analysts who believe that the Indian voter is too savvy 
and sophisticated to be taken in by such cynical election-time 
pandering. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) The Left Front's fourth consecutive victory in Tripura 
is a morale booster for the Left, albeit a small one.  Under 
attack from all quarters for the violent land acquisition 
battles in West Bengal, the Left Front has once again shown that 
it remains secure in its own strongholds.  The Left leadership's 
recent statements on the possible formation of a "third 
alternative" may gain some credence among moderate Left 
supporters following its Tripura victory, but the Left still 
needs to define this alternative more clearly to give it a 
chance at the national level. 
JARDINE